Dollar Index little changed ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
Dollar/rupee gained 0.20% on Monday after comments from Federal Reserve officials raised the bets for a US rate hike in September. Adding to that, demand by oil importers too supported the demand for the greenback in the on-shore market while the dollar index little changed Tuesday as investors await the key meeting of the US Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole due later this week. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also likely to deliver a speech later this week.
Technical, USDINR failed to break its support 66.84 and recovered more than 0.21%, settled at 67.27 levels. On the EOD chart, pair settled below 50% Fibonacci Retracement level while formed a high wave doji candle stick both of which creating probability for downside move towards 67.00 and below again.
Further, pair would need to trade above 67.40 in order to test 67.65-67.80.
May sell around 67.25-67.30 Target 67.10-66.90. Stop loss above 67.40
Market will focus on US durable goods order, second quarter GDP and new and existing home sales data for the health of the world's largest economy. Meanwhile, US economic growth strengthened for the second month in a row in July, according Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
EUR-INR August Future
Euro traded down for the second trading day Monday tracking dollar strength against other major currencies following hawkish comments from key Federal Reserve officials that boosted likelihood of US rate hike this year.
After hitting a low of 75.78, EURINR saw pullback and tested 76.00 before closing at 75.9925 levels. On the EOD chart pair yet trading above the 113% Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating for upside move in EURINR. Further, pair would need to trade above 76.00 in order to test 76.10-76.35 then 76.55. Stop loss below 75.85
GBP-INR August Future
Pound traded near two-week high Thursday after better than expected UK retail sales data amid weak dollar. Pound extended gains by breaching its highest level since Jul 5 after strong UK retail sales data amid tracking weakness in dollar
GBPINR extended its recent bullish trend and settled at 88.1650 with gain of 0.09%. In near term GBPINR may take momentum upside move and may test 88.50-88.75 and above following to long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart.
Buy above 88.32 Target 88.57/88.75. Stop loss below 88.15.
JPY-INR August Future
Yen slipped against the dollar for a second straight session Monday after comments from San Francisco Fed President, John William and Fed Vice Chairperson, Stanley Fisher over the weekend raised bets for a rate hike in near term.
After hitting a low of 66.62, JPYINR saw a pullback and tested 66.8950 before closing at 66.85 levels. On the EOD chart pair yet trading above its medium term trend line support which is creating probability for the upside move towards 67.50-67.75.
Buy above 67.10 Target 67.45-67.80. Stop loss below 66.95.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
7:30am
|
JPY
|
Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
49.5
|
49.3
|
Positive
|
9:30am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
-
|
-
| |
12:30pm
|
EUR
|
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
49.1
|
48.6
|
Positive
|
EUR
|
French Flash Services PMI
|
50.6
|
50.5
|
Positive
| |
1:00pm
|
EUR
|
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
53.7
|
53.8
|
Neutral
|
EUR
|
German Flash Services PMI
|
54.3
|
54.4
|
Negative
| |
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
52.1
|
52
|
Positive
|
EUR
|
Flash Services PMI
|
53
|
52.9
|
Positive
| |
3:30pm
|
GBP
|
CBI Industrial Order Expectations
|
-9
|
-4
|
Negative
|
6:30pm
|
CNY
|
CB Leading Index m/m
|
-
|
0.50%
|
-
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
53.1
|
52.9
|
Positive
|
7:30pm
|
EUR
|
Consumer Confidence
|
-8
|
-8
|
Neutral
|
USD
|
New Home Sales
|
575K
|
592K
|
Negative
| |
USD
|
Richmond Manufacturing Index
|
6
|
10
|
Negative
|
