Dollar/Rupee
Sell around 67.30-67.35 Target 67.00-66.85. Stop loss above 67.45.
Dollar/rupee extended its neutral trend for third consecutive week as investors refrained to make new positions ahead of the release of US FOMC minutes of the Jul 26-27 meet while Indian foreign exchange market remained closed for holiday on Monday and Wednesday which also contributed range bound sentiment.
Technically, on the weekly chart a formation of hammer candle stick with almost similar bottom is creating probability for short term recovery before any next bearish move in USDINR. However, pair yet trading below the symmetrical triangle which yet pointing limited upside move towards 67.45-67.50.
Further, crucial support the week is seen at 66.84 and USDINR would need to trade below this level in order to test 66.55-66.30.
Dollar Index
The greenback plunged to its lowest level towards 94.05 since Jun 27 and settled at 94.48 levels, down more than 1.15% after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting which showed that members of the US central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee were generally upbeat about the economic outlook of the world's largest economy but several agreed on that more data was needed to decide on when to raise interest rates has witnessed confusion among the dollar traders.
However, dollars recover modestly on Friday on upbeat jobless claims data and comments from Federal Reserve official.
Technically, a breakdown of short term consolidation at 94.00 and sustain trade below near term resistance trend line that drawn from the peak of 100.60 towards 97.60 low is yet indicating for bearishness in dollar index and it may test 93.25-92.80 very soon.
EUR-INR Future
Buy above 76.10 Target 76.45-76.80. Stop loss below 75.90
EURINR has stalled its recent bearish trend and recovered towards 76.04 levels as weakness in dollar index which drop towards 94.02 on fading hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting supported the currency.
However, euro little changed after the release of euro-zone current account surplus narrowed in the month of June.
Technically, a long bullish candle stick formation on weekly chart is indicating for bullishness in EURINR, but pair would need to trade above 76.10 in order to test 76.45-76.80,
else any rise towards 75.95-76.05 is expect to attract short term selling activities.
GBP-INR Future
Buy around 87.40-87.50 Target 87.85-88.25. Stop loss below 87.25.
GBPINR has stalled its recent bearish trend and after hitting a low of 86.38 recovered towards 88.20. Pound appreciated as investors covered their short term positions as pound breached its lowest level since Jul 11 Monday.
Pound extended gains after the Britain's inflation rose in the month of July.
Technically, the weekly price action resulted in formation of bullish engulfing line candle stick pattern which is indicating for trend reversal in GBPINR.
Further, pair would need to trade below 86.30 in order to test 85.90-85.55 its next downside move.
JPY-INR Future
Buy above 67.10 Target 67.40-67.75. Stop loss below 66.90
Japanese yen extended its recent bullish trend for second consecutive week and after breaching its highest level since Jul 8 settled at 67.03 levels compare to previous week close of 65.4425 as investors' appetite for dollar buying remained low in the wake of dismal US retail sales data.
Meanwhile, dollar index traded breached its lowest level after the FOMC meeting minutes also supported in upside move.
Technically, near term trend expect to remain bullish following to failure of bearish harami candle stick pattern that was appear in last week.
Adding to this, pair still trading above its previous swing trend line which also supporting for the bullish trend in the JPYINR.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
23.08.16
|
9:30am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
24.08.16
|
8:00pm
|
USD
|
Crude Oil Inventories
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
25.08.16
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate
|
108.5
|
108.3
|
Positive
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
0.40%
|
-0.40%
|
Positive
| |
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
265K
|
262K
|
Neutral
| ||
26.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Second Estimate GDP q/q
|
0.60%
|
0.60%
|
Neutral
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Prelim GDP q/q
|
1.10%
|
1.20%
|
Negative
| |
Tentative
|
USD
|
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
