Dollar/Rupee August Future
Sell below 66.95 Target 66.50-66.20.
Stop loss above 67.25
USD-INR continued its recent slightly
bearish trend and settled at 67.00 compare to previous close of 67.29 levels.
The upper house of the Parliament has passed the long-pending Goods and Service
Tax (GST) Bill on Wednesday which contributed selling activities in the
pair. Adding to this, higher than expected quantitative easing by
the Bank of England to mitigate the impact of Brexit also added weakness in the
USDINR.
Technically, symmetrical
triangle break down was noted on the weekly chart which is indicating for
correction towards 66.50 and below.
On the other hand, massive
resistance likely to seen at 67.85 and a break above only will expect to test
68.25-68.55.
Dollar Index
Dollar index witnessed a speculative
trade last week and settled at 96.14 levels compare to previous week close of
95.49 levels. Currency has breached its lowest level since Jun 27 in start of
the week on fear that Federal Reserve may hold rate hike in the near term after
the US grew at a slower than expected pace in the second quarter. However
currency got supported against the GBP which falls over 1.35% after BOE decided
to first rate cut since 2009 and somewhat supporting U.S. employment data which
again raised the probability of an interest rate hike from the Fed this
year.
This week, dollar may remain slightly
positive as the Fed members turn hawkish. Technically, on the weekly chart
dollar index struggling to break its near term resistance trend line that drawn
from the peak of 100.60 towards 97.60 low and it’s expected that any rise
towards 96.50-97.00 could attract selling activities unless dollar index give a
break out at 97.65 levels.
Above which upside move will
expect towards 98.64-96.50
EUR-INR August Future
Sell below 74.65 Target 74.25-74.00.
Stop loss above 74.85
EURINR retraced at the end of the
week as the dollar index recovered on favorable jobs data. However, weakness
remained limited following the higher than expected quantitative easing by the
Bank of England to mitigate the impact of Brexit.
The pair retraced from the high
75.5725 and tested 74.6550 before closing at 74.7950. In the coming
week the euro is expected to remain weak and the dollar may receive support as
the Fed members turn hawkish.
Technically, a breakdown of descending
triangle pattern is indicating for bearishness in EURINR, and any rise towards
74.90-75.00 is expected to attract huge selling activities. On the upside,
massive resistance is seen at 75.50 and break above is expect to show positive
move towards 76.10-76.50 again.
GBP-INR August
Future
Sell below 87.90 Target 87.45-87.00
Stop loss above 88.20
GBPINR witnessed more than 1.5%
plunged Thursday after the Bank of England slashed its interest
rates for the first time since 2009 to counter economic consequences of UK's
historic exit from the European Union last month.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy
Committee voted unanimously to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%,
the first rate cut since 2009, and voted 6-3 to expand quantitative easing to
435 billion pounds from 375 billion pounds in six months.
Technically, near term trend is
expected to remain bearish following to failure of trend reversal candle stick
formation.
Further, since last three week GBPINR
struggling to break above its immediate resistance 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement
which also creating probability for bearishness in near term.
JPY-INR August
Future
Sell around 66.00-66.10 Target
65.50-65.10. Stop loss above 66.35.
JPY-INR continued its recent upwards
trend for second consecutive week and settled with a gain of 1.76%. However,
currency pair retraced from the weekly high 66.5650 and settled at 66.2750
levels as Japan's fiscal stimulus package failed to provide satisfying solution
to the perpetual deflation problem.
Technically, weekly price action
resulted in formation long bullish candle stick which is indicating for bullish
trend in JPYINR.
On the downside crucial support
is seen at 66.00 and pair would need to trade below this level in order to test
65.50-65.00.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
08.08.16
|
Tentative
|
CNY
|
Trade Balance
|
313B
|
311B
|
Positive
|
09.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
0.00%
|
-0.50%
|
Neutral
|
11.08.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
272K
|
269K
|
Negative
|
12.08.16
|
7:30am
|
CNY
|
Industrial Production y/y
|
6.20%
|
6.20%
|
Neutral
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Prelim GDP q/q
|
0.30%
|
0.70%
|
Negative
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.70%
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
|
0.10%
|
0.50%
|
Negative
|
||
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.40%
|
0.60%
|
Negative
|
||
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
91.5
|
90
|
Positive
|
