USD-INR August Future
Sell around 67.35-67.45 Target 67.00-66.85. Stop loss above
67.70
USD-INR August Future traded negative in entire week and settled
at 67.29 compare to previous close of 67.47 levels. A disappointed monetary
policy by the US Fed and Bank of Japan has contributed weakness in USDINR which
tested its lowest level since April 3.
The dollar weakened to one-week low post the outcome of
the two-day monetary policy meeting that concluded Wednesday. However,
dollar buying by oil importers to meet month-end requirements limited the loss
in the pair.
Technically, the short term perspective USDINR turn bearish
following to short term consolidation break down on the weekly chart which
looking like bearish Flag pattern and pair may test 66.90-66.75 very
soon.
On the other hand, massive resistance likely to seen at
67.75 and a break above only will expect to test 68.00-68.25.
Dollar Index
Dollar index plunged more than 1.90% and settled at 95.49
compare to previous week close of 97.52. U.S. Federal Reserve members decided
to hold near-term interest rates steady, and upgraded its assessment of the
economy's recent performance which drags the dollar index from the weekly high
97.62, while greenback extended its fall after the Bank of Japan held rates and
did little in the terms of monetary stimulus.
Further, US economic growth faded the prospects of a hike in
interest rates as the data stood at 1.2% below the forecast of 2.6%.
Technically, on the weekly chart dollar index struggling to break it’s near
term resistance trend line that drawn from the peak of 100.60 towards 97.60 low
and formed long bearish candle stick pattern both of which indicating for
bearishness and it may test 94.40-94.00 again.
EUR-INR August Future
Sell around 75.10-75.20 Target 74.65-74.20. Stop loss above
75.50
EUR-INR has stalled its recent bearish trend and recovered 0.90%
from the weekly low. A slew
of upbeat economic data from the Euro zone was added some strength in
EURINR.
Further, weakness in the dollar index which drops more than
1.90% after the FOMC meeting and Bank of Japan stimulus measures fell short of
market expectations also supported the currency pair.
Technically, a breakdown of descending triangle pattern is
indicating for bearishness in EURINR, and any rise towards 74.90-75.00 is
expected to attract huge selling activities.
On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 75.50 and break
above is expect to show positive move towards 76.10-76.50 again.
GBP-INR August Future
Sell around 89.70-89.80 Target 89.00-88.20. Stop loss above
90.10
GBPINR witnessed neutral to negative move last week and settled
at 88.7075 compare to previous close of 88.3725 levels. However, European
Commission's monthly survey which surprised the market by releasing a dismal UK
business sentiment report and Bank of England policymaker who turn dovish was
added some weakness in the pair.
Technically, near term trend is expected to remain bearish
following to failure of trend reversal candle stick formation.
Further, since last three week GBPINR struggling to break above
its immediate resistance 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement which also creating
probability for bearishness in near term.
JPY-INR August
Buy above 65.15 Target 65.80-66.40. Stop loss below 64.80
Japanese Yen witnessed more than 2% bullish move last
week. It witnessed 1%
single day gain after Bank of Japan’s decision was remained blow than the
market expected.
The bank of Japan increased purchases of exchange-traded
funds marginally while maintaining the pace of asset purchase and base money
target at 80 trillion yen or $775 billion.
The decision was made by a 7-2 vote. BoJ also kept the interest
it charges to a portion of excess reserves financial institutions park with the
central bank at 0.1% which is considering as the main part of its monetary
stimulus.
Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation long
bullish candle stick which is indicating for bullish trend in JPYINR.
On the downside crucial support is seen at 63.30 and pair
would need to trade below this level in order to test 62.65-62.00.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
01.08.16
|
6:30am
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing
PMI
|
50.1
|
50
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing
PMI
|
49.1
|
49.1
|
Neutral
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM
Manufacturing PMI
|
53.1
|
53.2
|
Negative
|
|
|
02.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction
PMI
|
44.2
|
46
|
Negative
|
|
03.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services
PMI
|
47.4
|
47.4
|
Neutral
|
|
5:45pm
|
USD
|
ADP
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
171K
|
172K
|
Negative
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM
Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
56
|
56.5
|
Negative
|
|
|
04.08.16
|
4:30pm
|
GBP
|
BOE
Inflation Report
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
GBP
|
MPC
Official Bank Rate Votes
|
0-9-0
|
0-1-8
|
Negative
|
||
|
GBP
|
Monetary
Policy Summary
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||
|
GBP
|
Official
Bank Rate
|
0.25%
|
0.50%
|
Negative
|
||
|
5:00pm
|
GBP
|
BOE
Gov Carney Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment
Claims
|
265K
|
266K
|
Neutral
|
|
|
05.08.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average
Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Non-Farm
Employment Change
|
180K
|
287K
|
Negative
|
||
|
USD
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
4.80%
|
4.90%
|
Negative
|
