Dollar/Rupee August Future
Sell around 67.15-67.20 Target 66.85-66.50 Stop loss above 67.40
Dollar/rupee had a neutral to negative move last week and after retracing from the weekly high 67.1950 tested 66.8525 and settled at 67.00 levels as traders remained sideline ahead of the release of several important economic data from the U.S. and that could give direction to the market and provide signs of economic growth in the world's largest economy.
Technically, symmetrical triangle break down was noted on the weekly chart which is indicating for correction towards 66.50 and below.
On the other hand, massive resistance likely to seen at 67.85 and a break above only will expect to test 68.25-68.55.
Dollar Index – Below 94.90 will expect to test 94.65-94.30.
Dollar index pared its initial gains and settled down by 0.63% at 95.58 compared to previous week close of 96.19 as investors across the globe booked-profits taking advantage of the surge in the greenback.
Adding to this, the weak US retail sales dented prospects of a near-term rate hike by the Federal Reserve, with the resulting fall in Treasury yields pressuring the currency.
Technically, on the weekly chart dollar index struggling to break its near term resistance trend line that drawn from the peak of 100.60 towards 97.60 low and it’s expected that any rise towards 96.50-97.00 could attract selling activities unless dollar index give a break out at 97.65 levels.
Immediate support is 94.90 below will expect to test 94.65-94.45.
EUR/INR August Future
Sell on rise around 74.90-75.00 Target 74.55-74.10. Stop loss above 75.40.
Euro strengthened against the greenback after US worker productivity fell for the third straight quarter in June. This reduced bets for a near term rate increase by the Federal Reserve, while sentiments boosted after the release of a better than expected euro zone industrial output in the month of June.
The pair recovered from the weekly low 74.10 and tested 75.08 before closing at 74.7325. In the coming week the euro is expected to consolidate and the weakness dollar may support in upside move.
Technically, a breakdown of descending triangle pattern is indicating for bearishness in EURINR, and any rise towards 74.90-75.00 is expected to attract huge selling activities.
On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 75.50 and break above is expect to show positive move towards 76.10-76.50 again.
GBP-INR August Future
Sell below 86.80 Target 86.25-86.00 Stop loss above 87.05.
GBPINR extended its recent bearish trend, and fell to one-month low 86.74 before closing at 86.89. Sharp weakness was noted after dollar strengthened following to better-than-expected jobs openings in June.
Adding to this, lower than expected UK manufacturing production and trade data for June also added weakness in the pair. Sell strategy given below 87.90 was successful and pair hit both target.
Technically, near term trend is expected to remain bearish following to break down of pennant pattern on the weekly chart.
Further, since last three week GBPINR struggling to break above its immediate resistance 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement which also creating probability for bearishness in near term.
JPY-INR August Future
Buy on dip around 65.45-65.50 Target 65.80-66.20 Stop loss above 65.25.
JPYINR stalled its recent bullish trend and retraced from the weekly high 66.20. Pair made a low 65.4425 before closing at 65.6725 levels. Buy strategy given around 66.25-66.30 was not initiated. Yen weakened against the greenback after the US Labor Department said on Friday non-farm payrolls increased 255,000 in July and upwardly revised June NFP data to 292,000 against the previous estimates of 287,000.
Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of bearish harami which is indicating for bullish trend reversal, but pair would need to trade below 65.25 which is coinciding with near term trend line support. Else, failure of the break down could result again pullback towards 66.20-66.50 in days to come.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
16.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
CPI y/y
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
Neutral
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
2.10
|
-6.80
|
Positive
| |
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Building Permits
|
1.16M
|
1.15M
|
Positive
| |
USD
|
CPI m/m
|
0.00%
|
0.20%
|
Negative
| ||
USD
|
Core CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
| ||
17.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
|
2.50%
|
2.30%
|
Positive
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change
|
5.2K
|
0.4K
|
Negative
| ||
11:30pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
-
|
-
|
-
| |
18.08.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.10%
|
-0.90%
|
Positive
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
|
1.40
|
-2.90
|
Positive
| |
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
269K
|
266K
|
Negative
|
