Gold 30966/Silver 47527/ Crude Oil 3054/ Copper 333.50 /Soyabean 3811/
Top Gainers
Crude oil – gains – 1.56% LTP – 3054
Lead – gains – 0.96% LTP – 126.65
Nickel – gains – 0.45% LTP – 692.00
Top Losers
Gold – Losses – 0.98% LTP – 30966.00
Natural Gas – Losses – 0.65% LTP – 182.90
Silver – Losses – 0.63% LTP – 47527.00
Commodity Round UP
Bullions
Gold tumbles to 2-week lows after Bank of England holds fire on rates
Gold tumbled to a two-week low in North American trade on Thursday, extending overnight losses after the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to an intraday low of $1,321.90 a troy ounce, a level not seen since July 1. It last stood at $1,323.75 by 12:44GMT, or 8:44AM ET, down $19.85, or 1.48%.
A day earlier, gold tacked on $8.30, or 0.62%, as investors assessed the possibility of more monetary easing by global central banks.
Despite market expectations for a rate cut, the Bank of England decided to leave rates unchanged at 0.5%. Out of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members, only one policymaker voted in favor of a rate cut, while the remaining eight decided to leave it unchanged.
The central bank also said it was to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.
The precious metal surged to a more than two-year high of $1,377.50 last week, as fears surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.
However, uncertainty over the U.K.'s political scene diminished after Theresa May was appointed as U.K. prime minister on Wednesday, replacing David Cameron who resigned after the Brexit vote last month.
May announced her cabinet with a mixture of pro-EU and Brexit campaigners appointed to the top jobs. Former foreign secretary Philip Hammond replaced George Osborne as Chancellor, while former London mayor and prominent Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson became foreign secretary.
Leave campaigner and long-time euroskeptic David Davis was appointed "Secretary of State for Exiting the EU."
Energy
Oil up 1 percent after big losses; glut fears linger
Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Thursday as shortcovering lifted crude futures hammered a day ago by unusually weak U.S. demand for motor fuel during the traditionally busy summer driving season.
Key crude benchmarks Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost about 4 percent on Wednesday as a raft of bearish U.S. inventory data heightened concerns about a global glut.
In the latest session, oil rose as the dollar weakened on the pound's rally after the Bank of England's surprise decision not to cut interest rates following Britain's vote last month to leave the European Union.
Shortcovering, and the perception that the previous day's move lower was excessive, also supported crude futures.
"It's always the case a day after a big rally or sell-off for people to feel it was overdone," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Chicago brokers Price Futures Group.
"But I think the argument is also on what's the fair price for oil? I think $44 is a good support, as $40 or below will again deter investments in the space."
Brent was up 69 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $46.95 a barrel by 9:56 a.m. EDT (1356 GMT), after rallying more than $1 to a session high of $47.72.
WTI rose 55 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $45.30, reaching $45.79 earlier.
Crude stocks in the United States fell less than expected last week, while distillate inventories rose the most since January and gasoline stocks unexpectedly increased, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
The report portrayed a traditionally busy summer driving season beset with unusually low demand, when many had expected record driving trips amid lower oil prices. Weak gasoline is putting crude under pressure worldwide, with Middle East grades in particular hit by low Asian demand.
The market was also weighed by a bearish picture painted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said a persistent global crude glut was putting a lid on prices despite demand growth and declines in non-OPEC production.
Technical analysts say crude may be poised for a move lower after three months of strength.
"The market moved up to $50 quite fast, so we might go down and see whether there is anything below $40," said Avtar Sandu, senior commodities manager at Phillip Futures.
Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates in London said a first target for Brent could be its 100-day moving average at $44.84 a barrel, a level that could be reached in the next week.
Natural gas futures edge higher after weekly storage data
U.S. natural gas futures edged higher in North America trade on Thursday, despite data showing that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week.
Natural gas for delivery in August on the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 1.3 cents, or 0.47%, to trade at $2.750 per million British thermal units .
Prices were at around $2.744 prior to the release of the supply data.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended July 8 rose by 64 billion cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 59 billion.
That compared with builds of 39 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 98 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 77 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.243 trillion cubic feet, 15.6% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 18.1% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.
Futures are up nearly 45% since late May as expectations have grown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand.
Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Base Metals
Base metals consolidate , volumes low
Base metals were in consolidation mode on Wednesday on the LME following rallies in the previous session –and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting and its decision on interest rates.
Most of the metals hit multi-month highs on Wednesday, boosted by anticipated central bank monetary stimulus in Asia, policy easing in Europe and the UK and a pick-up in risk appetite.
Other data due later today includes the PPI, unemployment claims and the core CPI from the US. As well, China is due to release GDP, industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales data on Friday, which will shed more light on the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
In the metals, copper recently traded at $4,956 per tonne, up $18 on Wednesday’s close. Volumes are low – only around 5,000 lots have changed hands on Select so far.
The metal is on course for a fifth consecutive daily gain on strong Chinese imports data and pro-stimulus sentiment in the market, market participants noted.
“The base metals are looking strong, with prices continuing to work higher – risk-on seems to have gathered pace in recent days. The physical market is quiet so the firmer tone seems to be investment-led,” William Adams at FastMarkets said.
In today’s warehouse data, copper stocks rose a net 1,875 tonnes to 234,925 tonnes and cancelled warrants climbed 7,100 tonnes to 76,000 tonnes.
Aluminium at $1,680 was up $7. Stocks and cancelled warrants both fell 6,475 tonnes to 2,325,600 tonnes and 980,475 tonnes respectively.
Nickel recently traded at $10,475, up $125. Stocks were up 414 tonnes to 378,816 tonnes
Zinc at $2,206 was up $27, with stocks and cancelled warrants both slipping 125 tonnes to 439,075 tonnes and 20,775 tonnes respectively, while lead was last at $1,889, up $10 – stocks climbed 1,400 tonnes to 185,925 tonnes.
Agri commodity
Monsoon covers entire country, poised to take a breather
The South-West monsoon has completed coverage of the entire country ahead of the scheduled timeline of July 15, the India Met Department announced on Wednesday. The 24-hour period up to Wednesday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra while it was heavy over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal. Wednesday also saw the two main supporting systems — a low-pressure area over North-West Madhya Pradesh and the offshore trough along the West Coast — weaken one after the other.This is considered a precursor to the weak phase that the monsoon is likely entering over the next couple of days. The Met has already indicated that the ‘axis’ of the monsoon would migrate to the foothills of the Himalayas during this phase. (Source: HBL)
Centre directs ED, others to recover illegally stored chana
The Centre has directed the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and otherauthorities to conduct nationwide raid on godowns and warehouses to recover around 125,000 tonnes of chana dal (gram) illegally stored by traders on behalf of farmers, which has artificially pushed up prices in the
domestic market. Officials said the government has estimated that most of these have been stored in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the crop is mainly grown.
The Centre is also planning to write to all states to bring down the gap between the retail and wholesale prices of
pulses to 20-25 per cent in metropolitan and other big cities by whatever means possible. At present, the difference between the retail and wholesale prices of pulses in some cities like Delhi is as high as 50 per cent, which is unusual. (source: BS)
Mills see cut in cotton price as CAB revises estimates
The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated a comfortable cotton supply position for the cotton season of 2015-16. The body has estimated the closing stock at 43 lakh bales as against its previous estimate of 35 lakh bales for the season. The area under cotton has also been revised to 119.10 lakh hectare as against its previous estimate of 118.81 lakh hectare for the 2016-17 season. M Senthilkumar, chairman, The Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA), has stated that the cotton position in the domestic and international market is very comfortable. He has advised mills to avoid panic purchase as the traders are taking undue advantage and have increased the prices abnormally closer to R48,000 per candy as against R33,200 per candy that prevailed till April 2016. (Source: FE)
India Palm Oil Imports Fall for Second Month as Demand Drops
Palm oil imports by India probably fell for a second month in June as demand weakened and near-record stockpiles prompted traders and refiners to curb purchases. Imports dropped 18 percent to 600,000 metric tons last month from a year earlier, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg survey of processors, brokers and analysts. Total vegetable oil purchases, including soybean and sunflower oils, climbed 12 percent to 1.14 million tons, the survey showed. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India is set to release import data in the middle of the month. (Source: Bloomberg)
India Cotton: Production Forecast Decreases
Due to Lower Area USDA forecasts 2016/17 India cotton production at 27.5 million bales (480-pound bales) down 0.7 million bales from 2015/16. Area harvested is estimated to decrease to 11.5 million hectares, down 3.4 percent from 2015/16 due to a decline in area planted in northern India which comprises about 10 percent of total cotton production. The forecast yield this month is 521 kilograms per hectare. The northern cotton areas of Punjab and Haryana have completed sowing as of the end of May. The Punjab government forecasts that cotton production was 42 percent lower than last year, whereas the Haryana district government forecasts a 14 percent decline in planting. (Source: USDA)
Technical Levels.
Gold
Support at 30800. Break and sustain below 30800 will take to 30500---30300 mark. Further downside panic will see only close below 30300 mark else it could test its resistance level of 31100 again
Further upside rally will see only close above 31100 mark
Trade with levels only
Silver
Support at 47000 and Resistance at 48000
Still looks weak and could test 47000 again. Break and sustain below 47000 will see more downside panic till 46800---46500 and then to 45800 mark in days to come
Else it could test its resistance level of 48000 again. Further upside rally will see only close above 48000 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Below 2990 …. Panic remains continues till 2880-2830 and then to 2800 marks in days to come.
Resistance at 3080
Close above 3080 will see further upside rally till 3150—3180 and then to 3250 mark.
Copper
Support at 330 and resistance 338
Above 338... rally remain continue till 340---345+ mark in days to come else could test its support level of 330.
Fresh selling only below 330
Trade with levels only
Soyabean
Above 3800 will take to 3880---3940 mark. Further upside rally will see only close above 3940 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 3940 will see sharp upside rally till 4200---4350+ mark in days to come
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3600 mark
Technical Pick
Buy Gold above 31100. Stop loss 30800. Target 31500++
Technical Pick
Buy Gold above 31100. Stop loss 30800. Target 31500++
Economic Data
Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m – 06:00 PM
U.S CPI m/m – 06:00 P.M
U.S Core CPI m/m – 06:00 P.M
Core Retail Sales m/m– 06:00 P.M
Retail Sales m/m– 06:00 P.M
U.S Capacity Utilization Rate – 06:45 P.M
U.S Industrial Production m/m – 06:45 P.M
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment– 07:30 P.M
