Dollar fluctuate ahead of FOMC policy outcome
Dollar/rupee traded down yesterday while the dollar index traded
little changed Thursday as investors await the release of policy statement by
the Fed after its two-day rate setting meeting concludes later today.
Technical, USDINR retraced from the day high 67.8275 and tested
67.6125 before closing at 67.6325 levels. On the EOD chart pair failed to close
above 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous fall.
Near term resistance is seen at 67.85 and sustain trade
above only will expect to test 67.99-68.10; else every rise towards 67.75-67.80
could attract short term selling activities.
Dollar index, which weighs greenback against a basket of six
currencies, traded higher during Asian trade Wednesday and traded at 96.33
compared to 96.15 seen on Tuesday as policy makers in Washington prepared to
release decisions on interest rates and after release of upbeat economic data.
As members of the FOMC gathered in Washington DC for the start
of the two-day meeting, participants received their last chance to review a
slew of incoming economic data before Wednesday's vote.
Meanwhile, investors across the globe also await the Bank of
Japan's monetary policy meeting decision due on Friday.
EUR-INR August Future
Euro extended gain for the second day as dollar slipped on
caution ahead of two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting starting from today.
EURINR retraced from the day high 74.6975 and settled at 74.4775
levels. On the EOD chart prices still trading above the previous swing low
which is indicating for momentum upside move in EURINR.
However, any positive move in dollar index could hold
bearishness in the pair. Hence, sell on rise around 74.80-74.90 is recommended
for the EURINR. Stop loss above 75.10 Target 74.50-74.20-74.00
GBP-INR August Future
Pound fell to two-week low Tuesday on report Bank of England
policy maker Martin Weale favours an immediate stimulus for the UK economy.
GBPINR drop more than 0.15% yesterday and settled at 88.76.
Failure trend reversal formation on EOD chart is indicating for bearishness in
GBPINR.
Further, massive resistance is seen at 89.85 and pair would need
to trade above this level in order to test 90.50-91.00
Sell around 88.95-89.00 Target 88.45-88.10. Stop loss above
89.15.
Japanese Yen August Future
Japanese Yen extended its upwards move on fears the planned
stimulus to the world's third largest economy by the Japanese government may
provide little relief to the sluggish growth and inflation.
JPYINR witnessed 1.66% gain and settled at 64.77 levels. A long
bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for bullishness in
JPYINR.
Further, immediate support is seen at 64.10 and pair would
need to trade below this level in order to test 63.55-63.00
Sell below 64.10 Target 63.65-63.40. Stop loss above 64.25.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible
Impact
|
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German
Import Prices m/m
|
0.60%
|
0.90%
|
Negative
|
|
EUR
|
GfK
German Consumer Climate
|
9.9
|
10.1
|
Negative
|
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
M3
Money Supply y/y
|
5.00%
|
4.90%
|
Positive
|
|
EUR
|
Private
Loans y/y
|
1.70%
|
1.60%
|
Positive
|
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Prelim
GDP q/q
|
0.50%
|
0.40%
|
Positive
|
|
GBP
|
Index
of Services 3m/3m
|
0.30%
|
0.50%
|
Negative
|
|
|
3:30pm
|
GBP
|
CBI
Realized Sales
|
2
|
4
|
Negative
|
|
Tentative
|
EUR
|
German
30-y Bond Auction
|
0.65|2.0
|
||
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core
Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.30%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Durable
Goods Orders m/m
|
-1.10%
|
-2.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Pending
Home Sales m/m
|
1.90%
|
-3.70%
|
Positive
|
|
11:30pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Statement
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
USD
|
Federal
Funds Rate
|
<0.50%
|
<0.50%
|
Neutral
|
