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Friday, July 29, 2016

Dollar extended losses post BOJ decision







Dollar extended its loss against the other currencies after Bank of Japan refrained from boosting the pace of government bond purchases.


 Dollar fell after the Bank of Japan refrained from boosting the pace of government bond purchases.


  The Bank of Japan expanded its purchases of exchange-traded funds and doubled the size of a dollar lending program, while refraining from boosting the pace of government-bond purchases that have formed the main part of its monetary stimulus.


 Governor Haruhiko Kuroda led his board in voting to expand an ETF program to 6 trillion yen a year, the BOJ said in a statement in Tokyo Friday.


  In an unexpected development, Kuroda has ordered an assessment of the effectiveness of BOJ policy, to be undertaken at the next meeting, which is scheduled for September.


Bank of Japan bank kept its annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($779 billion), done mainly through an equivalent increase in government bond holdings.  It also left untouched the minus 0.1% rate for a portion of commercial banks' reserves. A dollar-lending program was expanded to $24 billion. 











Technical




USDINR extended its fall for third consecutive day and after hitting a low of 67.2975 settled at 67.36 levels. For the short term perspective USDINR is expect to remain bearish following to  three black crows candle stick pattern on EOD chart, while recent break down is looking like bearish Flag pattern which also indicating for bearishness in the pair.


  On the other hand, near term resistance is seen at 67.85, sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.99-68.10.





  EURINR remained indecisive for third consecutive day, and fluctuated in between gains and losses. On EOD chart pair trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous fall which creating probability for correction in days to come. 

On the other hand, massive resistance is seen at 75.10 and sustain trade above only will expect to test 75.55-75.80.


  GBPINR retraced form the day high 89.2025 and tested 88.6275 before closing at 88.70 levels.  Since 22 July 27, 2016 GPBINR consolidating in between 88.95-88.40 and constructing short term pennant pattern.




 However, pattern is yet not completed but a breakdown of 88.40 could bring decent fall in GBPINR. 

 Further, massive resistance is seen at 89.10 and pair would need to trade above this level in order to test 89.65-90.00





  JPYINR gained more than 1% after Bank of Japan Policy. Near term trend expect to remain bullish, and a break above 65.45 expect to test 66.00 and above.
Else, wait for dip towards 64.65-64.70.



 Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today





Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
Tentative
JPY
Monetary Policy Statement
-
-
-
10:30am
JPY
BOJ Outlook Report
-
-
-
JPY
BOJ Core CPI y/y
0.70%
0.80%
Negative
JPY
Housing Starts y/y
-2.80%
9.80%
Negative
11:00am
EUR
French Prelim GDP q/q
0.20%
0.60%
Negative
11:30am
EUR
German Retail Sales m/m
0.00%
0.90%
Negative
Tentative
JPY
BOJ Press Conference
-
-
-
12:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
0.10%
-0.70%
Positive
EUR
French Prelim CPI m/m
-0.30%
0.10%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
-0.50%
-0.80%
Negative
EUR
Spanish Flash GDP q/q
0.70%
0.80%
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
11.40%
11.50%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
4.2B
4.3B
Negative
GBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
0.40%
1.20%
Negative
GBP
Mortgage Approvals
66K
67K
Negative
2:30pm
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.90%
0.90%
Neutral
EUR
Prelim Flash GDP q/q
0.30%
0.60%
Negative
EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.00%
0.10%
Negative
EUR
Unemployment Rate
10.10%
10.10%
Neutral
6:00pm
USD
Advance GDP q/q
2.60%
1.10%
Positive
USD
Advance GDP Price Index q/q
1.90%
0.40%
Positive
USD
Employment Cost Index q/q
0.60%
0.60%
Neutral
7:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
54.3
56.8
Negative
7:30pm
USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
90.2
89.5
Positive
USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.80%
-




 





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