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Thursday, July 7, 2016

Currency Outlook - Pound crashed more than 1.50% as BoE warns of threats to financial stability







USD-INR July Future



Dollar/rupee snapped four-day losses Friday on dollar buying by nationalised banks on behalf of oil importers amid weak local stocks and the dollar index were little changed Thursday from previous day after June FOMC minutes indicated the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates in 2016 due to Brexit.

Technical, Technical, USDINR witnessed 0.28% positive move on Tuesday and settled at 67.69 levels.  Bearish trend reversal was noted on the EOD chat which is indicating for momentum upside move in the pair, but there is massive resistance at 67.75 and pair would need to trade above 67.75 in order to give upside move towards 68.00-68.20, else correction will expect to continue and pair may test 67.50-67.35 again.




EUR-INR July Future 



Euro pared losses during afternoon trades as Bank of England announced new measure to cut the counter cyclical capital buffer rate to 0% from 0.5% in its biannual Financial Stability Report- the first to be published since the Brexit vote.

EURINR settled with a gain of 0.50% at 75.5025 levels.   Intraday price action resulted in formation long bullish candle stick pattern which is indicating for momentum upside move in days to come and any dip towards 75.00-75.05 could bring short term buying activities for the target 75-40-75.65.

On the downside support is seen at  74.90 and a break below only could expect to test 74.65-74.35.







GBP-INR July Future


Pound extended fall to touch fresh 31-year low after Bank of England warned of a number of threats to financial stability arising from Britain's vote to leave the European Union after having lowered the countercyclical capital buffer on banks' UK exposures.

GBPINR extended its recent bearish move and settled down 0.57% at 89.07 levels. Sell strategy given below 89.74 was initiated and drop towards 88.9275 levels.

 Near term outlook is looking bearish following to the breakdown to long bearish candle stick, and any rise towards 89.10-89.20 is expect to attract near term selling activities.

Today, pair witnessed 1.60% gap down opening and trading at 87.74.00 levels as per the Tuesday sell call it crashed vertically.

 Now support is seen at 87.55 and fresh sell will expect below this level for the target 87.00-86.50 and below. 



JPY-INR July Future


JPY extended its gain for the third straight trade during afternoon trades Tuesday tracking the fall in Japanese stocks following disappointing services PMI data for June and Chinese composite data.

After witnessing a gap up opening at 66.08 vs previous close of 65.7625, JPYINR tested 66.58 and settled at 66.42 levels.  Pair well managed to trade above its short term moving average which giving strong buying signal. 

 As per the buy strategy given on Tuesday, JPYINR hit all upside target. Now trading at 66.92 levels. Fresh buy expect to come above 67.00 target would be 67.35-67.70 and above. Stop loss below 66.85.


On the downside massive support is seen at 65.50 and sustain trade below only will expect to test 65.00-64.80.





Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today







Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
6:00am
JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
-
-
-
10:30am
JPY
Leading Indicators
100.10%
100.00%
Positive
11:30am
EUR
German Industrial Production m/m
0.10%
0.80%
Negative
12:15pm
EUR
French Trade Balance
-4.9B
-5.2B
Negative
1:00pm
GBP
Halifax HPI m/m
0.40%
0.60%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
-1.20%
2.30%
Negative
GBP
Industrial Production m/m
-1.00%
2.00%
Negative
Tentative
EUR
French 10-y Bond Auction
-
0.49|1.8
-
Tentative
GBP
10-y Bond Auction
-
1.66|1.8
-
5:00pm
EUR
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
-
-
-
USD
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
-
-26.50%
-
5:45pm
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
158K
173K
Negative
6:00pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
269K
268K
Neutral
7:30pm
GBP
NIESR GDP Estimate
-
0.50%
-


















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