USD-INR July Future
Sell around 67.90-68.00 Target 67.55-67.25 .Stop loss above 68.25
Indian Rupee strengthened more than 1% against the dollar last week, and settled at 67.6 compare to previous week close of 68.33. A sharp gain was noted in local currency after Bank of England Governor hinted of at an interest rate cut following the surprised exit of United Kingdom from the European Union in a referendum last week, which also created a hope that other global central banks may follow easing policy to offset the slowdown in economic and as Federal Reserve was likely to further delay rate hike. Technically, a long bearish candle stick formation has emerged on USDINR weekly chart, while pair closed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 21 Feb 2016 – 17 April 2016 fall, both of which are indicating for continuation of recent bearish move. Further, massive resistance likely to seen at 68.50 and a break above only will expect to test 68.80-69.00.
Dollar Index – Neutral to Bearish
The dollar remained moderately neutral
against the other major currencies last week and settled at 95.72 up 0.16%. It
made weekly high of 96.86 and retraced towards 95.48 levels as investors booked
profits taking advantage of the 3.54% last week.
The recent weakness was noted after
Bank of England Governor hinted of at an interest rate cut following the
surprised exit, which dimmed Fed rate hike expectation also.
Technically, on the weekly chart dollar index
failed to cross it’s near term resistance on closing basis. This week, currency
may trade neutral to negative and may test 95.10-94.80 again.
On the upside, dollar index would need
to trade above 96.80 in order to test 98.45 and above.
EUR-INR July Future
Sell around 75.90-76.00 Target 75.40-74.80.
Stop loss above 76.25
EUR-INR extended its recent bearish trend and
settled down by 0.62%. However, on Friday pair found some support after
Eurozone and Germany reported upbeat manufacturing data that raised hopes that
ECB may not introduce stimulus if the economy is not impact adversely by
Brexit, and it rebounded from the day low 74.9550 and settled at 75.1975.
Technically, after four week consolidation,
EURINR witnessed a breakdown of short term pennant pattern on the weekly chart
which point to bearishness in near term and any rise towards 75.90-76.00 is
expect to attract huge selling activities.
GBP-INR July Future
Sell below 89.70 Target 89.35-89.00 Stop loss
above 90.00
GBP-INR extended its fall for second
consecutive week, and traced from the 91.62 and tested 89.7425 before closing
at 90.02. The decent fall was noted after Bank of England Governor comments
that more stimulus needed over the summer. Sell strategy given below 95.10 was
initiated and pair drop towards 90.50 levels.
Technically, a breakdown of short term
consolidation support and long bearish candle stick on the weekly chart is yet
indicating for bearishness in GBPINR and a break below 89.70 is expect to
show decent fall towards
89.25-87.80 and below.
JPY-INR July Future
Buy on dip around 65.50-65.60 Target 66.20-66.95 Stop loss below 65.15
After posted more than 4% decent upward move, Japanese Yen gave up 1.44% against the Rupee. However it found some support from 65.77, and rebounded towards 66.05 after Boris Johnson stepped down from the election for Prime Minister causing more commotion in UK politics. Technically, a sustain trade above the near term resistance is yet indicating for bullish trend in JPYINR and any dip towards 65.50-65.60 may attract strong buying with stop loss below 65.10 levels. On the other hand, crucial support is seen at 65.00 and a break below only could expect to take correction towards 64.50-64.00 and below.
High Impact Economic Data & Events
Schedule during the week
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
04.07.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction PMI
|
50.6
|
51.2
|
Negative
|
|
All Day
|
USD
|
Bank Holiday
|
-
|
-
|
||
|
05.07.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
53.1
|
53.5
|
Negative
|
|
3:00pm
|
GBP
|
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
|
||||
|
06.07.16
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
53.5
|
52.9
|
Positive
|
|
11:30pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
||||
|
07.07.16
|
6:00am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
|||
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
-1.40%
|
2.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
5:45pm
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
|
151K
|
173K
|
Negative
|
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
272K
|
268K
|
Negative
|
|
|
08.07.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
181K
|
38K
|
Positive
|
||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
4.80%
|
4.70%
|
Negative
|
