Dollar/Rupee August Future (LTP: 67.47)
Sell around 67.35-67.45 Target 67.00-66.85 Stop loss above
67.70
Dollar/Rupee settled at 67.1125 compare to previous week close
of 67.1625. Pair retraced from the weekly high 67.2950 after the European
Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected.
However, downside move remained limited as dollar demand from
oil importers for their month-end payment were negated impact of the
policy.
Technically, Sell strategy given around 67.25-67.20 was
initiated, but pair yet to test first predicted level of 66.95.
Weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave
candle stick which indicating for indecisive or trend reversal in USDINR,
however sustain trade below 23.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 21
Feb 2016 – 17 April 2016 is yet indicating for continuation of recent bearish
trend.
Hence, any rises towards 67.35-67.45 expect to attract near term
selling activities. Further, massive resistance likely to seen at 67.75 and a
break above only will expect to test 68.00-68.25
Dollar Index
Dollar index gained more than 0.80% last week and settled at
97.41 compare to previous close of 96.56. This week, central bank meetings in
U.S and Japan will determine dollar index trend. US Federal Open
Market Committee is due to start a two-day monetary policy meeting on July 26,
with the market expecting the Fed to keep monetary policy steady which could
have neutral to negative impact on dollar.
Technically, On the EOD chart, short term consolidation in a
range between 96.86 and 95.50 levels has formed a bullish pennant pattern and a
break out at 97.10 is indicating for the bullish rally towards its first
immediate resistance 98.50, after that sustain trade above this level
probability could arise for the next level of 99.86 levels that will coincide
with its previous swing high.
On the other hand, sustain trade below 95.30 will create
probability for correction towards 94.65-94.20.
EUR-INR August Future
Sell around 74.80-75.00 Target 74.20-73.80. Stop loss above
75.35 (LTP: 74.43)
EUR-INR reacted neutral on European Central bank July policy
which held on 21 July 2016. The policy maker kept its monetary policy unchanged
since Brexit from European Union but signaled it was open to easing policy in
the coming month. ECB President Mario Draghi said it was too early to
determine the economic fallout of the UK referendum, and stressed that
financial markets had shown "encouraging resilience.
Technically, a breakdown of descending triangle pattern is
indicating for bearishness in EURINR, and any rise towards 74.90-75.00 is
expected to attract huge selling activities.
On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 75.50 and break
above is expect to show positive move towards 76.10-76.50 again.
GBP-INR August Future (LTP: 88.37)
Sell around 89.70-89.80 Target 89.00-88.20 stop loss above 90.10
GBPINR retraced from the weekly high 89.30 and tested 88.0850
before closing at 88.37 and settled with a loss of 0.25%. Sterling plunged
after the release of a lower than expected retail sales of June and private
sector activity which stood at the steepest pace since early 2009 which added
to concerns over the outlook for Britain’s growth following the country’s
decision to leave the European Union.
Technically, near term trend is expected to remain bearish
following to failure of trend reversal candle stick formation. Further, since
last three week GBPINR struggling to break above its immediate resistance 23.8%
Fibonacci Retracement which also creating probability for bearishness in near
term.
JPY-INR August Future (LTP: 63.64)
Sell below 63.50 Target 62.70-62.00 Stop loss above 63.85.
JPY-INR extended its fall for second consecutive week and
settled at 63.27. Pair dropped towards 63.1650 after Bank of Governor Haruhiko
Kuroda reduced expectations that the central bank could resort to an aggressive
form of stimulus known as "helicopter money.
On Thursday, pair rebounded towards 63.78 after talks of
possible arrangement by the Japanese government for an economic stimulus of
about 20 trillion yen or $187 billion.
Technically, sell strategy given below 63.52 was initiated
but pair failed to test target 62.40 as it rebounded from the low of
62.7075.
Weekly price action resulted in formation high wave candle stick
which is indicating for indecisive trend, and JPYINR would need to trade below
63.50 in order to test 62.50-62.00. Further, Bank of Japan policy meeting will
determine Japanese yen short term trend.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
25.07.16
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate
|
107.7
|
108.7
|
Negative
|
26.07.16
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
95.6
|
98
|
Negative
|
27.07.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Prelim GDP q/q
|
0.50%
|
0.40%
|
Positive
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.30%
|
Positive
|
|
11:30pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Statement
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
USD
|
Federal Funds Rate
|
<0.50%
|
<0.50%
|
Neutral
|
||
28.07.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
261K
|
253K
|
Negative
|
29.07.16
|
Tentative
|
JPY
|
Monetary Policy Statement
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
10:30am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Outlook Report
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Tentative
|
JPY
|
BOJ Press Conference
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Advance GDP q/q
|
2.60%
|
1.10%
|
Positive
|
|
30.07.16
|
1:30am
|
EUR
|
EBA Bank Stress Test Results
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
