Gold 30091/Silver 41151 / Crude Oil 3293 / Copper 317.55 /Soyabean 3847/
Top Lossers
Natural Gas – Losses 3.10% LTP – 181.30
Crude Oil – Losses 1.79% LTP – 3293.00
Gold - Losses 0.68% LTP - 30091
MCX/ COMEX
Gold fell to fresh two-week lows before paring some of the losses on Wednesday afternoon on the eve of the historic Brexit referendum in the U.K.
On the Comex division, Gold traded in a tight range between $1,263.50 and $1,273.40 an ounce, before settling at $1,270.25, down 2.25 or 0.18% on the session. It came one day after Gold tumbled more than 1.5% or $20 an ounce, while suffering its worst one-day loss in nearly a month. After hitting 22-month highs last week during a seven-day winning streak, Gold has responded with a current five-day losing skid. Despite the slight declines, the precious metal has still surged more than 19% since the start of the year and is on pace for its strongest first half in more than a decade
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen reiterated her stance that a vote supporting a Brexit could have serious consequences on the global economy and financial markets. In testimony on Capitol Hill, Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that she has yet to schedule an emergency meeting at week's end in the likelihood that the Remain camp is defeated.
A Leave vote is regarded as bullish for gold, as investors pile into the safe-haven asset due to increased fears that a British departure from the European bloc could trigger a recession throughout the euro zone. Notably, it will take the U.K. a minimum of two years to leave the EU if the Leave campaign prevails.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.45% to an intraday low of 93.50, remaining near one-month lows. The index is down by more than 5% since early-December.
Oil prices fell about 1 percent on Wednesday after a smaller-than-expected weekly U.S. inventory draw erased early gains in crude futures.Investors also anticipated more market volatility ahead of Thursday's vote on whether Britain should stay in the European Union.
Crude stockpiles fell 917,000 barrels during the week ended June 17, the fifth consecutive weekly draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
But decline was smaller than the 1.7 million-barrel drawdown forecast by analysts and much less than the 5.2 million-barrel drop reported on Tuesday by trade group the American Petroleum Institute (API).
"Although gasoline demand is still strong relative to year-ago levels, a build to both gasoline and distillate inventories does not bode well for product prices either. With this report, we should expect WTI to move back below $49 this week."
U.S. gasoline demand over past four weeks rose 3.9 percent year-on-year, but stocks of the motor fuel rose 627,000 barrels last week, while distillates grew 151,000 barrels.
Crude prices had moved higher earlier in the session on optimism Britain will elect to "Remain" in the EU, and investors braced more market swings as the dollar gyrates on speculation over the referendum. The greenback determines demand for dollar-denominated oil among holders other currencies when other fundamental factors are less compelling.
"Though some may be forgiven for thinking that the outcome is a foregone conclusion, the inconsistency between the betting money and the polls mean that conditions are ripe for a fresh bout of volatility. Aside from moving on the British vote speculation, the dollar weakened on Wednesday against a basket of currencies after cautious comments on the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who virtually ruled out a July interest rate hike.
In other industry news, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia said it may reprise its role of balancing supply and demand once the global market for oil recovers.
U.S. natural gas futures held near the prior session’s nine-month high on Wednesday, as traders looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's storage report slated for release on Thursday is expected to show a build in a range between 55 to 66 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 17.That compared with builds of 69 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 88 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.041 trillion cubic feet, 20.8% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 23.2% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Agri Commodities
Monsoon makes progress in North-West : The monsoon has made further progress over the eastern and northwestern parts of the country even as it encountered fresh hurdle on the West Coast on its way to Gujarat. On Tuesday, the seasonal rains entered Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, the India Met Department said. The pre-eminent monsoon feature in the form of the offshore trough has weakened yet again, bringing its progress along the West Coast to a brief halt. The Met forecast indicates that the heavy to very heavy rainfall regime will be active for the next few days over the West Coast up to Konkan and Goa and the rest of North-West, East and North-East India.
Sebi mulls new products for commodities market : With an aim to deepen commodity derivatives market, regulator Sebi is working on new products that can have good liquidity while weeding out some existing contracts with limited or no appeal among investors and only being used for purely-speculative activities. However, any new product on agriculture commodities is unlikely for now amid concerns that any such move may be seen as worsening the prevailing price-rise situation because of commodities trading being largely seen as speculative in nature, a senior official said. Sebi is of the view that only those products can be allowed where there is evidence of significant liquidity, so that speculative trades do not become the driving force behind the price movements. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has given itself a target to launch new products like options contracts and some index-based products by the end of the current fiscal.
Kharif sowing begins as monsoon finally hits north, central India : After a delay of eight days, the monsoons have finally hit most parts of Maharashtra and central India. With this, sowing of kharif crops like paddy, cotton, maize, oilseeds and pulses, is expected to gather pace. Sowing is expected to peak by the last week of June and first week of July. After hovering over Karnataka coast around June 10-18, the monsoons have covered most parts of Maharashtra and is expected to cover south Gujarat, parts of Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the next 48 hours. "There will be better rainfall during the next 15 days over central India," DS Pai, director (long range forecast), IMD, has said. As of June 17, kharif sowing was completed on 84.21 lakh hectares, which is 10% less than last year.
Cardamom average price tops ₹840/kg Cardamom prices continued to shoot up on strong demand amid decline in arrivals with the auction average crossing ₹840 a kg mark almost after 18 months. At today’s auction conducted by the South Indian Cardamom Company Limited, 70.4 tonnes arrived and the entire quantity was sold. The maximum price was at ₹1,292 a kg and the auction average stood at ₹832.95 a kg. The upsurge in prices, at present, is attributed to the strong domestic demand following apprehensions about a decline in next crop which will be long delayed and likely to be available by August end.
Technical Levels.
Gold
Gold has support at 30050. Break and sustain below 30050 will see more downside panic till 29980---29930 and then to 29850 mark else it could test its resistance level of 30280 mark again.
Further upside rally will see only close above 30280 mark
Trade with levels only
Silver
Support at 40800 and Resistance at 41600
Looks weak and could test its support level of 40800. Weekly close below 40800 will see more downside panic till 40500---40200 and then to 39800 else it could test its resistance level of 41600 again
Further upside rally will see only close above 41600 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Yesterday we recommended selling in Crude oil around 3400. It crashed and made a low of 3280. We booked full profit around 3320.
Now what to expect???
Below 3280... we will see further downside panic till 3250---3220 and then to 3180 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3380---3450 again.
3450 act as major hurdle area.
Further upside rally will see only close above 3380 mark
Copper
Support at 315 and Resistance at 320
Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation.
Soya Bean
Support at 3800 and Resistance at 3860
Close above 3860 will see further upside rally till 3920 and then to 3980---4050 mark again else it could test its support level of 3800 again
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3800 mark
Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 3800 will take to 3720---3650 mark in days to come
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick of the day
Sell Natural Gas below 181.00. Stop Loss 183.50 Target - 177
Major economic data to be released today
EU Membership Vote – All Day
French Flash Manufacturing PMI – 12: 30 P.M
French Flash Service PM – 12: 30 P.M
German Flash Manufacturing PMI – 01: 00 P.M
German Flash Service PM – 01: 00 P.M
European Flash Manufacturing PMI – 01: 30 P.M
European Flash Service PM – 01: 30 P.M
Unemployment Claims – 06:00 P.M
U.S New Home Sales – 07:30 P.M
Natural Gas Storage – 08 : 30 P.M
