Gold 29927 / Silver 41225 / Crude Oil 3361 / Copper 320.70 / Soyabean 3813
Top Gainers
Crude Oil – gains 2.03% LTP 3361
Copper - gains 0.99% LTP – 320.70
Lead – gains 0.87% LTP – 116.50
Top Losers
Gold - Losses 0.65% LTP -29927
Zinc – Losses 0.36% LTP – 137.30
Nickel – Losses 0.05% LTP – 618.70
MCX/ COMEX Update
Bullions
Gold inched down amid a broadly weaker dollar, as global equities rose sharply on Thursday, hours before polls closed in the U.K. in the historic Brexit referendum.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Gold traded between $1,260.00 and $1,274.50 an ounce, before settling at $1,264.85, down 5.15 or 0.41% on the session. At session-lows, Gold fell to near two-week lows. As Brexit fears have abated over the last week, Gold has slid more than 1.5% from 22-month highs hit last Thursday.
Despite the mild declines, the precious metal has still surged more than 19% since the start of the year and is on pace for its strongest first half in more than a decade.
As polls in Britain on the U.K.'s potential departure from the European Union remained virtually deadlocked, investors braced for a long, dramatic night before the official results are released at some point on Friday morning. Complicating matters, torrential downpours in London threatened turnout possibly limiting volume among key undecided voters. Regardless, officials from G7 nations have devised comprehensive contingency plans to calm markets on Friday in the event that the "Leave" campaign prevails.
A Leave vote is widely regarded as bullish for gold, as investors pile into the safe-haven asset due to increased fears that a British departure from the European bloc could trigger a recession throughout the euro zone. Notably, it will take the U.K. a minimum of two years to leave the EU if the Leave campaign prevails.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.40% to an intraday low of 93.03, falling to fresh one-month lows. The index is down by more than 5% since early-December.
Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.
Energy
Oil prices rallied on Thursday, amid indications that Britain would vote to remain in the European Union in a highly anticipated referendum.
The vote on a potential Brexit was set to take place between 7:00AM London time, or 10:00PM in London, with results expected early Friday morning.
Recent polls indicated that the remaining campaign was in the lead, spurring "risk-on" sentiment across the globe.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories declined by 0.9 million barrels last week to 530.6 million. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock decline of 1.7 million barrels.
U.S. crude futures are up nearly 85% since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11 as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. However, with prices now at levels that make drilling economical for some firms, the rig count might start rising soon and the decline in U.S. production may slow.
U.S. natural gas futures declined in North America trade on Thursday, after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 17 rose by 62 billion cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 58 billion.
That compared with builds of 69 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 88 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.103 trillion cubic feet, 19.9% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 21.9% above the five-year average for this time of year. Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.
Meanwhile, updated weather forecasting models continued to show above-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks. Natural gas prices are up nearly 40% since late May as expectations have grown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning.
Base Metals
Copper showed marginal gains after a dull session on Wednesday. The prices of Copper tested a high of Rs 322.30 per kg, and were last seen exchanging hands at Rs 320.70 per kg. The metal has been gaining strength after the sentiments improved in Europe. Prices are rising as investors look positively on activity in China and a soft dollar. Closing of Copper at levels above Rs 320 per kg will prove fruitful as the prices can then look to meet levels of Rs 330 per kg.
The weaker dollar is making commodities cheaper for international buyers. This combined with the latest polls out of Britain suggesting that the referendum vote will mean the country remains in the European Union, has given support to copper. The move in price has forced the shorts to close their positions which are now at the lowest level in almost 2 months. Chinas shadow is always looming over the copper market, but this month, the country was significantly exporting. One report showed exports of 84,959 tons which is up 259 percent over the same month last year and the second highest outflow ever. It is only bettered by the 102,000 tons of copper exported in May 2012. This copper may only being going to bonded warehouses, but it is helping keep the market tight in China which is good for the copper price.
Agri Commodities
Monsoon may shrug off delay; cover whole country ahead of time : The monsoon covered Madhya Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, most parts of west Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday. It has already covered Jammu & Kashmir and parts of west Uttar Pradesh as rains pushed in from the Bay of Bengal. The monsoon continues to be delayed in Gujarat by more than a week; on Wednesday, it has entered its border with neighbouring west Madhya Pradesh. But the thrust from the Bay has taken it to parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh around the normal onset date. It is this context that its coverage during the last week of June assumes significance. The normal schedule suggests that the national coverage is complete as rain pushes past Rajasthan by July 15. Forecasts put out by global models indicate that this could happen even ahead, which would mean that the eight day drag from a delayed onset over Kerala will have been more than made up. (Source: HBL)
Monsoon to cover country by June-end : The southwest monsoon, after making a delayed entry, has made steady progress and is set to cover the entire country by the end of this month, barring a few pockets in west Rajasthan, west Haryana and Kutch bordering Pakistan, senior meteorologists said. It reached Gujarat on Wednesday and covered parts of south Gujarat and Saurashtra region. This should augur well for the sowing of kharif crops; sowing pace had dropped below last year's level mainly due to the delayed onset of the monsoon. The rains would also fill up the major reservoirs, where the levels according to the previous update had dropped to only 15 per cent of full capacity. The situation was particularly bad in the water reservoirs of central and western India.
More than enough sugar in the country to meet domestic requirement: There is more than enough sugar in the country to meet the domestic requirement. Even in coming sugar season 2016-17, there would be no shortage of domestically produced sugar in India. During the current Sugar Season 2015-16, India had started with a carryover stock of 9 million MT of sugar. The production of sugar has been estimated at about 25.1 million MT in the current sugar season while demand about 25.5 million MT. Exports being low, the stock position at the close of the current sugar season (Sept. 2016) will stand at 7 million MT which will be carried forward for the next sugar season 2016-17. Thus with the closing stock of about 7-7.5 million tonnes, and the estimated production of about 23 - 24 million tonnes, during 2016-17, the total availability of sugar during 2016-17 season will be over 31 million tonnes, against the domestic demand of about 26 million tonnes. (Source: PIB)
Rising cotton prices force mills to take the import route: The spinning sector is in a paradoxical situation caught between the steep rise in the price of the domestically available cotton and the option to import the white fibre from the international market. While a section of players voiced anxiety over soaring cotton prices, quality-conscious mills have quietly opted to import and many more gearing up to source the white fibre from the international market.
International cotton price, for one, is cheaper by at least ₹2,000 a bale, and cotton imports, at present does not attract any duty. Notwithstanding these, the imported fibre, mills say, is better quality wise, enhances yarn realisation by 2-3 per cent and more importantly, can be availed by discounting of bills (LC benefit). While price volatility seems to have shaken the user industry, industry insiders feel that the domestic cotton price will soften to international level in the next 10-20 days, as there is no dearth in availability of domestic cotton.
SEBI may allow trade in commodity options soon : Hedgers and punters in commodity futures could soon get to trade options in gold, silver, soyabean and guar seed once SEBI approves the launch of the new products in around three-four months, three persons aware of the development told ET. Also, portfolio management services (PMS) could be approved by the regulator in due course, they added. The matter was discussed at a commodity derivatives advisory committee (CDAC) meeting on new products and participants held in Sebi's office in Mumbai on Monday. Sebi officials, commodity exchange chiefs and heads ofS commodity brokerages were among those present at the meeting. For a non-farm product on which an option can be launched, one of the criteria being discussed is that its average daily turnover be around Rs 5,000 crore. For a farm product, the ADT could be Rs 200 crore. All four commodities cited above meet this criterion. Gold and silver are traded on MCX, the country's largest and only listed commodity bourse. Soyabean and guar seed are traded on the country's premier farm bourse NCDEX.
Technical Levels
Gold
We clearly indicated below 30050 we can see downside panic till 29980—29930 and then to 29850, yesterday gold made low of 29852.
Now what to expect??
Gold has support at 29850 and resistance at 30280. Break and sustain below 29850 will see more downside panic till 29630---29600 and then to 29530 mark else it could test its resistance level of 30280 mark again.
Further upside rally can be seen if close above 30280 marks.
Trade with levels only
Silver
Support at 40800 and Resistance at 42000
Weekly close below 40800 will see more downside panic till 40500---40200 and then to 39800 else it could test its resistance level of 42000 again
Further upside rally will see only close above 42000 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Support at 3280 and resistance at 3380
Above 3380... we will see further upside rally till 3420---3450 and then to 3500 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3280 again.
Further downside panic will see only close below 3280 mark. Close below 3280 will see more downside panic till 3220----3180 mark.
Copper
Copper has support at 318 and resistance at 322.50.
Above 322.50 we can see upside rally till 324.00—325.60 and then 327 marks in days to come else could test its support level of 318.00
Further downside panic can be seen if closes below 318.00.
Soya Bean
Support at 3800 and Resistance at 3860
Close above 3860 will see further upside rally till 3920 and then to 3980---4050 mark again else it could test its support level of 3800 again
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3800 mark
Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 3800 will take to 3720---3650 mark in days to come
Trade with levels only
Major economic data to be released today
U.S Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 06: 00 P.M
U.S Durable Goods Orders m/m – 06: 00 P.M
U.S Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – 07:30 P.M
U.S Revised UoM Inflation Expectations – 07:30 P.M
Note- Today is BREXIT event result. So we advised our followers to kindly stay away from market. Let the market settled.
More will update soon!!
