Gold soared nearly 2% to hit 22-month highs, as the Bank of Japan and Bank of England followed the lead of the Federal Reserve by standing pat at a pair of closely-watched central bank meetings on Thursday but faded back below USD 1300 an ounce as traders booked profits when stocks rallied. The precious metal has also surged more than 23% since the start of the year and is on pace for its strongest first half in more than a decade.
The dollar moved up to two-week highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, despite the release of mostly negative U.S. data as concerns over a potential British exit from the European Union, or Brexit, dominated sentiment.
The U.S. Department of Labour said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 11 increased by 13,000 to 277,000 from the previous week’s total of 264,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 6,000 to 270,000 last week.
Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department said consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain. Year-over- year, consumer prices were 1.0% higher last month, below expectations for a 1.1% gain.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased as expected in May by 0.2%.
On a more positive note, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its manufacturing index improved to 4.7 this month from -1.8 in May, beating expectations for a rise to 1.1.
Oil prices slumped 3 percent to hit a one-month low on Thursday, sliding a sixth straight day for the longest bear run since January, as the dollar's rally on fears of Britain's exit from the EU hammered commodities priced in the currency. Also weighing on the oil complex were uninspiring drawdown data on U.S. crude inventories in spite of peak summer driving demand in the United States.
U.S. Crude inventory drawdowns over the last month have not provided much support to oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic crude inventories fell 933,000 barrels last week, less than half the 2.3-million-barrel decrease forecast.
U.S. natural gas futures added to losses in North America trade on Thursday, after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 10 rose by 69 billion cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 64 billion. That compared with builds of 65 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 89 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 86 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.041 trillion cubic feet, 20.8% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 23.2% above the five-year average for this time of year. Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October. Meanwhile, updated weather forecasting models continued to show above-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks.
Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning. Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early summer cooling demand. Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Natural gas prices are up nearly 40% since falling to a 17-year low of $1.611 in early March on expectations of strong summer weather-driven demand for gas-fired electricity generation to meet air-conditioning needs. Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
SEBI directs NCDEX to suspend trading in chana contracts
All the open positions in chana have to be squared off, said the regulator.
NCDEX recorded a turnover of ₹216 crore on Thursday and the open interest was 19,146 lots.“As directed by SEBI, no new chana contracts shall be launched till further orders. In respect of running contracts in chana, no new positions will be allowed to be taken; only squaring up a position will be allowed,” said the exchange in a statement late on Thursday.
22% rain deficiency due to slow-progress of south-west monsoon: The slow progress of the south-west monsoon has led to overall deficiency of rains by 22 per cent over the last fortnight, the MeT department on Wednesday said. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), from June 1 to 15, the country has received overall 43.6 mm of rainfall as compared to normal level of 55.7 mm — an overall deficiency of 22 per cent. The progress of the south-west monsoon has been relatively slow as it is not getting a favourable system to move forward and is held up at Karwar and Gadag in Karnataka and Ongole in Andhra Pradesh. It is only the southern peninsula that has recorded 27 per cent excess rainfall while other parts of the country have seen deficient rains.
Cotton acreage is likely to go down to 108-110 lakh hectares in the 2016- 17 kharif season on the back of pest attacks in key cotton-growing areas of the country and a delay in monsoon in other parts, according to top industry experts. The area may further drop down to 104-105 lakh hectares if planting gets delayed, experts said. The area under cotton cultivation was 119 lakh hectares in 2015-16 and arrivals of 341 lakh bales were recorded according to the meeting of the Cotton Advisory Board.
Argentina has lost around 3.7 million to 4 million tonnes of soybeans due to floods and another 1 million tonnes have suffered quality damage, a government official said on Tuesday.
Palm oil futures hit a four-month low – falling for an eighth successive session - as a rise in Malaysian export prices added to pressure from weakness in markets for rival vegetable oils
Technical Levels.
Gold
Support at 30400 and Resistance at 30800
Three consecutive close + weekly close above 30800 will see sharp upside rally in it. Target looks 31800—32400+ marks in coming weeks else could test its support level of 30400.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 30400
Silver
Support at 41200 and Resistance at 42000--40500
Close below 41200 will take to 40600---40200 mark else it could test its resistance level of 42000----42500 again. Further upside rally will see only close above 42500 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Support at 3100 and Resistance at 3180
Above 3180.. it could test 3240---3250 else it could test its support level of 3100 again. Close below 3100 will take to 3040---3025 mark
Traders can trade with levels only
Copper
Support at 302.50 and Resistance at 308
Two consecutive closes above 308 will take to 314---318+ mark else it could test its resistance level of 302.50 again.
Further downside panic will see only close below 302.50 mark
Traders can trade with levels only
Soya Bean
Support at 3860 and resistance at 3980
Now what to expect???
Two consecutive closes above 3980 will see upside rally till 4050---4080+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 3860 again
Further downside panic will see only close below 3860 mark
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick of the day
Sell Gold (Aug) below 30400. Stop loss above 30600 Target 30200--30050
Major Economic Data to be released
1.Canadian CPI m/m – 06 : 00 PM
2.Canadian Core CPI m/m – 06 : 00 PM
3.US Buildings Permit – 06 : 00 P.M
4.US Housing Starts – 06: 00 P.M
