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Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Daily Currency Outlook - Expect to trade rang bound ahead of Brexit referendum








Dollar/Rupee June Future


Dollar/rupee ended up for second day on Tuesday on dollar demand from oil importers amid weak local stocks, while the dollar index snapped four-day losses Wednesday on caution ahead of Brexit referendum.


Technical, A bearish harami candle stick has been noted on the EOD chart which is indicating for bearish in USDINR, and any rise towards 67.75-64.80 could attract short term selling activities.  On the other hand, immediate resistance is seen at 67.90 and pair would need to trade above 67.90 in order to test 68.00-68.35 levels.




EUR/INR June Future


Euro traded up for the third straight session Tuesday as dollar fell to fresh six-week low on easing worries over possible exit of United Kingdom from the European Union in referendum set for Jun 23.


EURINR retraced from the day high 76.7325 and settled at 76.56 levels. A inverted hammer candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for trend reversal in the EURINR. On the other hand, strong resistance is seen at 77.10 on closing basis and pair would need to trade above these levels in order to test 77.55-78.00.

Strategy sell EURINR around 76.50-76.60 Target 76.20-74.90 .Stop loss above 76.75.






GBP/INR June Future


Pound traded at seven-week high Monday as fear of UK leaving membership of the European Union eased after latest polls showed campaigning for UK to remain in the EU strengthening ahead of June 23 referendum.


GBPINR extended its recent gain and up nearly 0.95%.  On the daily chart, constructing triangle pattern, however it yet not completed but momentum upside move expect to continued towards immediate resistance of 99.50 before next any downside move.  On the downside, fresh sell expect below 98.20

Fresh buy expect above 99.50 Target 100.00/101.50. Stop loss below 99.25

Else, short term corretion may take place with stop loss above 99.50. Target 99.00-98.50.






JPY/INR June Future



Yen snapped seven-day losses Tuesday on waning fears of United Kingdom's exit from the European Union which lowered the safe-haven demand for yen.

JPYINR consolidated around 64.60-64.85 levels and settled at 64.54, up 0.20%. However, pair remained below the strong resistance of 64.95.  Hence, in near term any rise towards 64.75-64.80 is expected to attract huge selling pressure unless it gives a closing.

On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 64.95 which coincide with previous swing high and further upside move will expect to come above these levels only.


Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
12:00am
USD
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
-
-
-
Tentative
EUR
German 30-y Bond Auction
-
0.88|1.4
-
6:30pm
CNY
CB Leading Index m/m
-
0.10%
-
USD
HPI m/m
0.60%
0.70%
Negative
7:30pm
EUR
Consumer Confidence
-7
-7
Neutral
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
-
-
-
USD
Existing Home Sales
5.53M
5.45M
Positive










More will update soon!!