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Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Daily Currency Outlook 29 June 2016






Dollar/Rupee July Future 


Dollar/rupee snapped two-day gains while the greenback weakened against basket of six major currencies on profit taking tracking higher risk appetite in global stocks.

Dollar/rupee drop towards 68.0825 compare to previous close of 68.2875 in earlier trade on Wednesday. Yesterday, Pair found support just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 29 Feb-20 April fall from 69.5650 to 67.00.

 The 61.8% retracement level at 68.46 will act as an near term resistance level above which pair will expect to test 68.95 and above, else consolidation is appear to take place around 68.00-68.30 before any big move.



Dollar index little changed against a basket of six currencies during early Asian trade Wednesday and traded at 96.11 compared to 96.05 at close of New York time on Tuesday.
Immediate support is seen at 95.90 sustain trade below only will expect to test 95.40-95.20.On the other hand, resistance is seen at 96.20-96.55.




EUR/INR July Future


Euro snapped a two-day fall Tuesday on short covering amid weakness in dollar.  The currency pair traded higher as investors made a rush for Brexit-bashed assets which were hammered by some of the biggest falls amid weakness in the greenback.  EURINR failed to break below 75.25 and rebounded from 75.2550, settled at 75.73 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of bullish piercing line pattern which is indicating for short term pullback towards 75.80-76.00 in days to come.       On the other hand, crucial support is seen at 75.25 and sustain trade below only will expect to test 74.80-74.65.




GBP/INR JULY Future




Pound rebounded from its 31-year low Tuesday as investors covered their short positions in pound amid uncertainty over impact of Brexit on United Kingdom's Economy.  Pound fell sharply as investors expect both the UK and Eurozone economies to experience further slowdown after Brexit.

GBPINR witnessed more than 1% recovery rally on Tuesday, and settled at 91.35 levels. intraday price action resulted in formation of bullish harami cross pattern which is indicating for short term pullback in GBPINR.   

Crucial support will intact at 90.75  and fresh correction is expected to come below 90.75 for the target 90.20-90.00



JPY/INR July Future


 

Yen retraced more than 0.80% yesterday on lack of fresh triggers following the sharp fall in the currency pair after Brexit. JPYINR retraced more than 0.75% yesterday and settled at 66.7275 levels. Buy strategy given around 66.80-66.90 has been initiated.  Near term trend is expect to remain bullish following to the strong breakout of short term consolidation and any dip towards 66.20-66.00 is expect to attract near term buying activities.





Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today





Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
4:30am
USD
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
-
-
-
5:20am
JPY
Retail Sales y/y
-1.60%
-0.90%
Negative
11:30am
EUR
GfK German Consumer Climate
9.8
9.8
Neutral
All Day
EUR
Italian Bank Holiday
-
-
-
11:30am
GBP
Nationwide HPI m/m
0.10%
0.20%
Negative
All Day
EUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
0.10%
0.30%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
-0.90%
-1.00%
Neutral
2:00pm
GBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
2.9B
1.6B
Positive
GBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
0.10%
-0.10%
Positive
GBP
Mortgage Approvals
65K
66K
Negative
Day 2
EUR
EU Economic Summit
-
-
-
6:00pm
USD
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.20%
0.20%
Neutral
USD
Personal Spending m/m
0.30%
1.00%
Negative
USD
Personal Income m/m
0.30%
0.40%
Negative
7:30pm
USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
-0.90%
5.10%
Negative











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