USDINR June Future and U.S. data Update
Dollar/rupee and the dollar index traded up Friday as
investors sought out assets seen as safe post unexpected dipped in the number
of people filing first-time unemployment benefits in US last week.
Dollar flipped post US weekly jobless claims data showed
improvement, diluting the dovish effect of last week's dismal non-farm payrolls
report.
The US Labour Department revealed Thursday that initial
jobless claims came in at 264,000 for the week ended June 4. This was down
4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 268,000.
Economists had expected the number to tick up slightly
from the previous week. Analysts were generally looking for a level around
270,000.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims, a figure
that flattens out week to week volatility, moved down as well. The figure
dipped to 269,500. This was down 7,500 from the previous week's level.
Jobless claims have now been below 300,000 for 66
consecutive weeks. The Labour Department reported that this is the longest such
streak since 1973.
The total number of people receiving unemployment
benefits dipped to 2.016 million. This was down nearly 0.034 million from the
previous week.
Federal-funds futures, a popular tool used by investors
to place bets on US central-bank policies, on Thursday showed the odds of a
rate increase at the Fed's June meeting were 4%.
Technical, USD-INR has stalled its recent bearish move
and recovered from the day low 66.7250 levels, settled at 66.92 levels.
Intraday price action has resulted in formation of Piercing candle stick
pattern on EOD chart which is indicating for trend reversal in USDINR. But,
pair would need to trade above 67.15 in order to reversal confirmation, else
bearish trend expect to continue.
Strategy - Sell USDINR around 67.05-67.10 Target
66.90/66.75. Stop loss above 67.15.
Above 67.15 will expect to test 67.30/67.55
EURINR June Future view and Europe News
Update
Euro traded off the one-month high Thursday as investors
booked profit ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting set for next
week.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi
said Thursday that Eurozone must hasten with structural reforms as the cost of
delaying them further is too high, by hurting labour and productivity that
reduces economic potential in the long run.
"There
are many understandable political reasons to delay structural reform, but there
are few good economic ones, Draghi said in a speech at the Brussels Economic
Forum. "The cost of delay is simply too high."
Inflation
risks returning to the ECB target at a slower pace if other policies are not
aligned with monetary policy, he warned.
Risk
appetite in the European trades was hurt after data showed China's consumer
inflation lost momentum for the first time in seven months in May, heading
further below the government's target zone.
Adding
to this, risk appetite also plunged as Brent crude oil fell 1.18% on profit
taking to $51.89 a barrel.
EURINR retraced more than 0.27% and settled below the
immediate support 76.02. Intraday price action resulted in formation of long
bearish candle stick pattern which suggest for bearish trend in the EURINR.
Adding to this, pair broke its previous swing low 76.02 which also points for
bearishness.
Strategy : Sell EURINR around 75.85-75.90 Target
75.60/75.35. Stop loss above 76.10.
GBPINR June Future Update and U.K. News Update
Pound traded down for the second straight session
Thursday as investors risk appetite for pound dampened over the worries that
Britain will vote to leave the European Union in a referendum in two weeks'
time.
GBPINR continued its recent bearish trend and settled
0.62% at 96.8025. A formation of high wave candle stick formation on EOD chart
is indicating for indecisive trend in the pair. But, fear of Brexit continued
hold bearishness in th GBPINR.
Thereby, any rise towards 97.00-97.20 expects to attract
huge selling pressure in days to come. Further, immediate resistance is seen at
97.45 sustain trade above only will expect to test 98.00.
Meanwhile, the UK visible trade deficit unexpectedly
narrowed in April, data from the Office for National Statistics showed
Thursday.
The
deficit on trade in goods decreased to GBP 10.5 billion from GBP 10.6 billion
in March. The forecast was expected to widen to GBP 11 billion.
The
EU visible trade deficit increased to GBP 7.9 billion from GBP 7.8 billion,
while the non-EU deficit narrowed to GBP 2.6 billion from GBP 2.9 billion.
At
the same time, the trade in services showed a surplus of GBP 7.2 billion versus
a GBP 7.1 billion surplus in the month of March.
Thus,
the total trade balance logged a GBP 3.3 billion shortfall, which was smaller
than March's GBP 3.5 billion deficit.
Meanwhile,
total exports grew 5.3% from March, the biggest rise since February 2010 and
imports advanced 4.4
GBPINR continued its recent bearish trend and settled
0.62% at 96.8025. A formation of high wave candle stick formation on EOD chart
is indicating for indecisive trend in the pair. But, fear of Brexit continued
hold bearishness in th GBPINR.
Thereby, any rise towards 97.00-97.20 expects to attract
huge selling pressure in days to come. Further, immediate resistance is seen at
97.45 sustain trade above only will expect to test 98.00.
Japanese yen June Future View and News Update
Yen strengthen on lower fears of Fed rate hike in near
future and as investors don't expect the Bank of Japan to introduce fresh
stimulus to the world's third largest economy in its policy meeting set for
next week after the Japanese government pushed its plans to hike service tax to
Oct 2019.
Japanese stocks traded lower as investors turned wary
tracking continued strength in the safe-haven yen.
Japan's
benchmark stock index, Nikkei 225 ended 1% down at 16,668.41 on the Tokyo Stock
Exchange.
JPYINR witnessed a gap up opening at 62.55 compare to
previous close of 62.40, but remain its immediate resistance 62.95 and after
hitting a high 62.90 settled at 62.7425.
Sell strategy given around 62.80 was initiated, but yet
to test target 62.30. Hence, short term trend is expect to remain bearish
unless it give a closing above 62.95
Strategy - Sell JPYINR around 62.75-62.80 Target
62.40-62.20. Stop loss above 62.95.
Major
Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
5:20am
|
JPY
|
PPI y/y
|
-4.20%
|
-4.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
All Day
|
CNY
|
Bank Holiday
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
10:00am
|
JPY
|
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
|
0.70%
|
-0.70%
|
Positive
|
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Final CPI m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.30%
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
German WPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Industrial Production m/m
|
0.50%
|
-0.30%
|
Positive
|
|
12:30pm
|
EUR
|
German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
10th-15th
|
CNY
|
M2 Money Supply y/y
|
12.60%
|
12.80%
|
Negative
|
|
10th-15th
|
CNY
|
New Loans
|
750B
|
556B
|
Positive
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Industrial Production m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.00%
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction Output m/m
|
1.50%
|
-3.60%
|
Positive
|
|
GBP
|
Consumer Inflation Expectations
|
-
|
1.80%
|
-
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
94.1
|
94.7
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
|
-
|
2.40%
|
-
|
|
|
11:30pm
|
USD
|
Federal Budget Balance
|
-56.2B
|
106.5B
|
Negative
|
More will update soon!!
