Dollar/Rupee June Future
Sell on rise around 67.65-67.75 Target 67.10-66.90.
Stop loss above 67.90 (today high 67.7850).
Buy above 67.90 Target 68.35/68.55.
Dollar/rupee retraced from 67.4650 and tested 67.08 before
closing at 67.1750. USDINR turn negative after the Federal Reserve Kept Federal
fund interest rates unchanged and lowered projections for further rate hikes in
next few years. Adding to this, dollar/Rupee extended its losses as safe-haven
bets for dollar plunged over Brexit concerns after the campaigns for and against
Brexit was halted following the murder of Labour Party's pro-European Union MP
Jo Cox.
Technically, a short term consolidation breakdown was not noted
on weekly chart which is indicating for weakness in USD-INR. On the other
hand, strong resistance is seen at 67.88 and pair could need to trade above
this level in order to test 68.35-68.65.
Adding to this, Britain's referendum on the country's membership
of the EU which was set on Jun 23 may hold volatility in the pair.
Dollar Index – Expect to trade volatile
Dollar index fell retraced from the weekly high 95.53 and tested
94.17 before closing at 94.30 compare to previous week close of 94.56
levels. US Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy decision
unchanged at 0.50% and lowered projections for further rate hikes in next few
years which added negative sentiment for the dollar. US Consumer Price Index
rose 0.2% last month after rising 0.4% in April and halt in campaigning for and
against Brexit which was set on Jun 23 added weakness in dollar.
Technically, dollar index strolling to break above 38.2%
Fibonacci Retracement of previous fall and since 3 July has been consolidating
below 95.64 which indicating for weakness may remain continued. Further,
sustain close above 95.70 only will expect to test 96.50-97.00 on the upside.
EUR/INR June Future
Sell on rise around 76.90-77.00 Target 76.50-75.80. Stop loss
above 77.35.
(Today high 77.0925)
EUR-INR received some support and recovered from the low of 75.3925
after the US Federal Reserve kept its key rates unchanged in its monetary
policy on Wednesday. Meanwhile, data released by the European Central Bank last
week showed that the euro area current account surplus increased notably in
April largely on higher primary income.
Adding to this, safe haven bets for dollar fell against the Eur
as campaigning for and against Brexit was halted Thursday after UK Lawmaker and
Labour Party's pro-EU MP, Jo Cox was shot dead.
Technically, a sustain trade above the medium term trend
line support is indicating that EURINR may show short term pullback towards its
immediate resistance 76.35-76.40 again and any correction towards 75.45-75.30
could attract short term buying activities before next bearish move.
On the other hand, bearish move will come only below the
breakdown of 74.98 levels and pair may test 74.00-73.50 again.
GBP/INR June Future
Sell on rise around 98.65-98.70 Target 98.00-96.20-95.40. Stop
loss above 99.13.
(Today high 98.8775)
Or
Buy above 99.35 Target 99.50-100.50. Stop loss below 99.00.
Pound extended its recent bearish trend for third consecutive
week on fear United Kingdom may leave the European Union in a referendum set
for June 23. However, on weekend pair witnessed temporary recovery
as both sides suspended their campaign after the Labour Party Member of
Parliament Jo Cox was brutally killed on Thursday.
Technical, there is massive support level 95.10 which is
coinciding with 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement of previous fall and pair would
need to trade below this level in order to test 93.50-92.80 and below.
Else, GBPINR may show short term recovery towards 96.70-97.50
before next bearish move. Further, Britain’s referendum on the country's
membership of the EU which was set on Jun 23 may hold volatility in the pair.
JPY/INR June Future
Buy on dip around 63.40-63.50 Target 63.80-64.80. Stop loss
below 62.95.
(Today high 64.79)
Japanese yen jump more than 2.85%, its biggest weekly gain since
24 April 2016, and after breaching its previous swing high 63.10 tested 64.95
levels. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged against
expectations of further stimulus to the world's third largest economy was
lifted more than 2.2% single day gain.
Adding to this, the Federal Reserve also kept its interest
rate unchanged. And fear of UK's exit from the European Union in a referendum
set for Jun 23 also supported the rise of Japanese currency.
Technically, sell strategy given around 62.8 was not imitated,
as JPYINR remained above 63.10 in entire week and it hit predicted levels
63.55-64.00.
A long bullish candle stick formation on weekly chart along is
yet indicating for bullishness in JPYINR, and any towards 63.40-63.50 could
attract near term buying activities.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
21.06.16
|
Tentative
|
EUR
|
German
Constitutional Court Ruling
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic
Sentiment
|
5.10
|
6.40
|
Negative
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Fed Chair Yellen
Testifies
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
22.06.16
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Fed Chair Yellen
Testifies
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
23.06.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
271K
|
277K
|
Positive
|
|
24.06.16
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business
Climate
|
107.60
|
107.70
|
Negative
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods
Orders m/m
|
0.10%
|
0.50%
|
Negative
|
