Dollar/Rupee
Dollar/rupee traded down after
jumping to a one-week high, while the dollar index traded up as an better than
expected upbeat US jobs report bolstered investors' hopes that Federal Reserve
will tighten borrowing costs this summer.
Also, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
President Robert Kaplan reiterated Thursday that he's "getting to the
point" where he can support another increase in short-term rates.
Data Update
US ADP national employment report
showed private payrolls increased by 173,000 jobs in the month of May after
climbing an upwardly revised 166,000 jobs in April.
Payroll processor came roughly in
line with economists expectations in the month of May. Economists had expected
employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to the addition of
156,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
Initial jobless claim for last week
was 267,000, better than market consensus for 270,000 claims.
Technical, USDINR was unable to hold
its gain on Thursday and retraced more than 0.25% from the day high 67.72
levels. Since 25 May 2016, USDINR is struggling to close above 67.75
(except to yesterday close).
The last retracement was
resulted in formation of a bearish harami candle stick pattern which is
indicating for further correction in USDINR.
However, there is massive
support area around 67.40 and sustain trade below only will expect to test
67.20-67.00.
EUR/Rupee
The euro touched the day’s lows
against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi warned that inflation is likely to remain low for some time, while U.S.
data pointed to a tightening labor market.
The European Central Bank held its
benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.0%, in line with market expectations.
The central bank also held its deposit facility rate unchanged at -0.4% and
left its marginal lending at 0.25%.
ECB also kept the size of its
monthly quantitative easing program at approximately €80 billion. The central
bank will start buying corporate bonds on June 8 and will conduct its first new
targeted LTRO, announced back in March, on June 22.
The ECB revised its inflation
forecast for 2016 up to 0.2% from 0.1% before, but kept its inflation forecasts
for 2016 and 2017 at 1.3% and 1.6% respectively. Draghi warned that inflation
in the euro area is likely to remain very low, or negative, for some time
EURINR retraced from the day high
75.9950 and settled at 75.7175 levels. On the daily chart, a long
bearish candle stick formation is indicating for bearishness in EURINR. Further,
pair would need to trade above 76.10 in order to test 76.55 and above.
Sell on every rise towards
75.80-75.90 Target 75.50-75.00.
Great British
Pound
Pound snapped two-day fall Thursday
as dollar weakened globally after uneven economic data from the world's largest
economy resulted in uncertainty about raising interest rates by Federal Reserve
in the near term.
GBPINR continued its recent bearish
trend and settled at 67.68 levels. On the EOD chart formation of high wave
candle stick is indicating bearishness in GBPINR.
Near term resistance is seen at
98.25, and sustain trade above only could expect to test 98.55-99.00; else any
rise towards 98.00-99.10 may attract short term selling activities.
Japanese Yen
Yen traded at over two-week low
Thursday as yen continued to gain strength after the Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe announced further delay to a planned sales tax increase. Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a two and a half-year delay in a sales tax
increase, putting plans for fiscal reform on the back burner amid weakness in
the economy.
JPYINR failed to break above 62.10
levels, and consolidated around 61.80-62.00 levels. The daily chart is showing
probability for bullishness in JPYINR, but pair would need to trade above 62.10
in order to give correction towards 62.55-62.70 next upside move, else failure
of the break may witnessed short term correction towards 61.50-61.00.
Major Economic Data
& Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
5:30am
|
JPY
|
Average Cash Earnings y/y
|
0.90%
|
1.50%
|
Negative
|
|
7:15am
|
CNY
|
Caixin Services PMI
|
52
|
51.8
|
Positive
|
|
12:45pm
|
EUR
|
Spanish Services PMI
|
55.6
|
55.1
|
Positive
|
|
1:15pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Services PMI
|
52.3
|
52.1
|
Positive
|
|
1:20pm
|
EUR
|
French Final Services PMI
|
51.8
|
51.8
|
Neutral
|
|
1:25pm
|
EUR
|
German Final Services PMI
|
55.2
|
55.2
|
Neutral
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Final Services PMI
|
53.1
|
53.1
|
Neutral
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
52.5
|
52.3
|
Positive
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.40%
|
-0.50%
|
Positive
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
159K
|
160K
|
Negative
|
|
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
4.90%
|
5.00%
|
Positive
|
|
|
USD
|
Trade Balance
|
-41.2B
|
-40.4B
|
Negative
|
|
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Final Services PMI
|
51.2
|
51.2
|
Neutral
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.4
|
55.7
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
Factory Orders m/m
|
1.80%
|
1.10%
|
Positive
|
|
|
10:00pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
