Dollar/Rupee once again retraced from 67.00-67.07 levels
Dollar/rupee ended at two-month high
Monday as dollar strengthened on increasing fears of a near term rate hike by
Federal Reserve after strong economic data from the world's largest economy and
the dollar index snapped two-day gains ahead of the release of Federal Open
Market Committee minutes.
FOMC minutes due later this week will
give markets further clues regarding the potential rate hike in June
Technically, USD-INR retraced from
the day high 67.0775 and tested 66.8625 before closing at 66.9625. Sell
strategy given around 66.90-67.00 was initiated but yet to test target 66.75.
In near term any rise towards
67.00-67.15 is expected to show correction for the target of 66.75-66.60 unless
pair gives a closing above 67.30.
Dollar Index
The dollar fell on Monday
as investors remain skeptical that the Federal Reserve will raise the interest
rates soon despite upbeat US economic data. According to the
CME Fed watch tool, market currently believes that there is 4% probability of a
Fed rate hike in June.
Strong US retail sales and employment
reports lifted the dollar in recent sessions. But the upbeat data has done
little to change investors' pessimistic outlook on the prospect for
interest-rate increases.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose as the
oversupply has narrowed in recent weeks due to production outages in Canada,
Nigeria and elsewhere and continued strong demand.
Technical, Near term resistance is at
above 95.10 and further upside move will take place only above this level, else
dollar index may show correction towards 93.60-93.00 from
94.80-95.00 levels.
EUR/Rupee
Euro snapped nine-day fall Monday on
short-covering ahead of the Eurozone consumer inflation data set to be released
on Wednesday. Euro dollar was up in the mid-European trades Monday after having
lost against the greenback for nine-straight day on increasing fears of a near
term rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
EURINR extended its recent fall for
fourth consecutive day and tested 75.70 levels before closing at 75.82.
On the above EOD chart pair is
trading on verge of rising channel and a break below the lower trend line could
point for the downside target of 74.80-74.50, else failure of the break only
could witnessed pullback towards 76.00-76.35.
GBP/Rupee
Pound traded at near three-way Monday
as dollar strengthened on increased fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike in
near term after data released Friday showed strong improvements in the US
retail sales.
After hitting a low of 95.95, GBPINR
witnessed sharp pullback and settled at 96.2350. Intraday
price action resulted in formation of inverted hammer which is indicating for
bearish trend reversal in GBPINR.
Further, GBPNR would need to
trade below 95.90 in order to test 95.55-95.00
Japanese Yen
The yen eased on Monday as Japan
stepped up its threat of intervention in the currency market before the Group
of Seven meeting it will host this week, erasing early gains made as Chinese
data disappointed.
JPYINR had a neutral trading range
and settled at 61.4950 almost flat. On the EOD chart pair settled above the
previous swing low which is indicating for short time positive move before any
correction, while JPYINR would need to trade below 61.40 in order to test
61.00-60.80.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
10:00am
|
JPY
|
Revised Industrial Production m/m
|
3.60%
|
3.60%
|
Neutral
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Trade Balance
|
4.21B
|
3.86B
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
CPI y/y
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
Neutral
|
|
GBP
|
PPI Input m/m
|
1.10%
|
2.00%
|
Negative
|
|
|
GBP
|
RPI y/y
|
1.60%
|
1.60%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
GBP
|
Core CPI y/y
|
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
GBP
|
HPI y/y
|
7.90%
|
7.60%
|
Positive
|
|
|
GBP
|
PPI Output m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
Trade Balance
|
23.1B
|
20.2B
|
Positive
|
|
3:30pm
|
EUR
|
German Buba Monthly Report
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Building Permits
|
1.13M
|
1.09M
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
CPI m/m
|
0.40%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
|
USD
|
Core CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
|
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
1.12M
|
1.09M
|
Positive
|
|
|
6:45pm
|
USD
|
Capacity Utilization Rate
|
75.10%
|
74.80%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Industrial Production m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.60%
|
Positive
|
More will update soon!!
