Dollar/Rupee extended its fall
Dollar/rupee
snapped nine-day gains Wednesday on likely overseas fund inflows into local
shares after upbeat economic data from the US improved risk appetite and the
dollar index traded down Thursday as investors awaited comments from Federal
Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech expected later Friday for clues about
whether the central bank will hike interest rates soon.
Technical
USD-INR
has stalled its recent bullish trend and retraced more than 0.58% as was
expected yesterday. Since 3 May 2016, pair has witnessed neutral upside move
from the low of 66.5250 and tested 67.8650 its Tuesday high.
A
strong retracement from 38.2%, and a formation of long bearish candle stick on
EOD chart, both of which are indicating for bearishness, but USDINR
would need trade below 67.35 coincide with 23.8% Fibonacci
Retracement in order to test 67.10-66.90, else pair appear to set consolidation
around 67.35-67.75.
Dollar/rupee
NDF was also down on hope of FII inflows into local stocks tracking the firm
opening of Asian equities.
Dollar Index down ahead of Fed Yellen speech
Dollar
index, which tracks the strength of the greenback against a basket of six
currencies, traded down at 95.19 during early Asian trade Thursday compared to
95.59 at close New York time on Wednesday.
The
greenback globally fell after breaching its highest level since Mar 29 as
traders who were betting that the Fed will soon raise interest rates took some
profits on dollar's recent gains.
Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said Wednesday he would push for
the US central bank to increase rates in the near term, but uncertainty
surrounding the potential for a British exit from the European Union could
complicate the decision.
Technical, Daily
chart has turn bearish since Dollar index tested 95.66 high, now a break below
the immediate support 95.00 is expect to extend bearish move towards
94.80-94.65 (cmp 95.18).
EURINR witnessed a speculative plunge
Euro
plunged more than 0.90% on Wednesday on a fear economic growth in Germany, the
common currency region's strongest economy, may slow in second-quarter and
investors remained wary over a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as June.
EURINR
witnessed 0.90% decent fall on Tuesday and settled at 75.15 levels. Sell
strategy given since start of the week was successful with pair drop towards
75.15 levels.
A
breakdown of short term consolidation and a formation of long bearish candle
stick is indicating for bearishness in EURINR, today correction is expect to
come below 75.15. Target would be 74.80-74.55. Stop loss above 75.30.
GBP jump towards one week high on lower risk of Brexit from EU
Pound
traded near one-week high Wednesday on lower risk of Britain's exit
from European union after the latest ISM poll on the UK's forthcoming EU
referendum reported an even split on Brexit.
An
ICM poll showed on Tuesday that British voters are evenly split reporting 45%
chances of staying in the union and 45% chances of exiting ahead of a June 23
referendum.
The
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday that there is still uncertainty
over the outcome of the UK's June 23 referendum on whether to stay in or leave
the EU and is impacting the value of pound.
"The
effect on sterling is unusually identifiable and related to the
referendum," said Carney in testimony to UK lawmakers on the Treasury
Select Committee. (tickernews)
Buy
strategy given around 98.50 was initiated, after GBPINR witnessed sharp bounce
from the day low 98.45 and tested our first predicted level of 99.00. A
sustain close above the strong resistance of 98.60 is yet indicating for
bullishness in GBPINR, today valid buy is expect to come above 99.05.
Japanese Yen fluctuates ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's comments
Yen
settled down on Wednesday as investors await comments from the Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen due on Friday to gain clarity on possible Fed rate hike in
June.
JPYINR
has stalled its recent bullish trend that started from 19 May 2016, and
yesterday it gave up nearly 1.08%. Sell strategy given below 61.60 was
initiated and pair drop towards 61.1275 levels second target was at 61.00.
Today,
JPYINR expect to remain bearish following to a long bearish candle stick
formation on EOD chart. Further, JPYINR would need to trade above 62.10 in
order to test 62.50-62.80
Major
Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
5:20am
|
JPY
|
SPPI y/y
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Retail
Sales m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Second Estimate
GDP q/q
|
0.40%
|
0.40%
|
Neutral
|
GBP
|
Prelim Business
Investment q/q
|
3.20%
|
-2.00%
|
Positive
|
|
GBP
|
BBA Mortgage
Approvals
|
44.8K
|
45.1K
|
Negative
|
|
GBP
|
Index of
Services 3m/3m
|
0.60%
|
0.70%
|
Negative
|
|
3:40pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Member
Bullard Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Durable
Goods Orders m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.20%
|
Positive
|
USD
|
Unemployment
Claims
|
275K
|
278K
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Durable Goods
Orders m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.80%
|
Negative
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Pending Home
Sales m/m
|
0.60%
|
1.40%
|
Negative
|
9:30pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Member
Powell Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
