Dollar/Rupee likely to trade in between 66.70-67.00.
Dollar/rupee settled almost flat, while the dollar index traded
little changed during Asian trade Friday ahead of US retail sales data.
Technical
Technically, USD-INR traded range bound in between 66.85-66.75
and settled at 66.7875 almost flat. A formation of high wave candle stick on
EOD chart is pointing for relatively indecision among USDINR traders. Immediate
support is 66.70 below it will expect to test 66.55, else pair may set short
term pullback towards 66.90-67.00.
Dollar index having immediate resistance 94.60 sustain trade
above will expect to test 95.00-95.20, else may retraced towards 94.00-93.80
from 94.48-94.50.
News Update
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Thursday that the
US central bank would not rule out using negative interest rates to boost the
economy but she cautioned that such a move would have to be carefully studied.
Yellen also said that the US economy is expected to strengthen
and over the time inflation would return to the Fed's target of 2%.
"If the economic outlook evolves in an unexpected way, the
Federal Reserve will adjust the stance of policy appropriately to foster
progress toward its long-run goals of maximum employment and stable
prices," said Yellen.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther
George said Thursday that Fed interest rates are too low, as the economy is
close to full employment and inflation is near the central bank's target of 2%.
"Just as raising rates too quickly can slow the economy and
push inflation to undesirably low levels, keeping rates too low can also create
risks," said George. "Interest-sensitive sectors can take on too much
debt in response to low rates and grow quickly, then unwind in ways that are
disruptive."
Also, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren
said Thursday that he expects US growth to pick back up in the second quarter,
which should pave the way for additional central-bank rate rises.
Adding to that, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President
Loretta Mester said Thursday that inflation is making a welcome move higher.
Esther George, Eric Rosengren and Loretta Mester are voting
members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market committee.
Investors await US monthly retail sales, which the consensus
bureau expects to report a sharp increase in retail sales for the month of
April, following a mid decline a month earlier.
Meanwhile, India's CPI infalation accelerated to 5.39% in April
on back of rise in food prices, while industrial output eased to 0.1% in March,
building concerns for the Reserve Bank of India on how to tackle investment
boosting measures and at the same time keep prices rise in check.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
Tentative
|
GBP
|
MPC Member Haldane
Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Prelim GDP q/q
|
0.60%
|
0.30%
|
Positive
|
EUR
|
German Final CPI m/m
|
-0.20%
|
-0.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Prelim Non-Farm
Payrolls q/q
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
13th-16th
|
CNY
|
M2 Money Supply y/y
|
13.50%
|
13.40%
|
Positive
|
13th-16th
|
CNY
|
New Loans
|
820B
|
1370B
|
Negative
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Prelim GDP q/q
|
0.30%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction Output
m/m
|
-2.80%
|
-0.30%
|
Negative
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
Flash GDP q/q
|
0.60%
|
0.60%
|
Neutral
|
6:00pm
|
GBP
|
MPC Member Weale
Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
|
0.60%
|
0.20%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
-0.30%
|
-0.30%
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Core PPI m/m
|
0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer
Sentiment
|
89.9
|
89
|
Positive
|
13th-14th
|
USD
|
Mortgage Delinquencies
|
-
|
4.77%
|
-
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Business Inventories
m/m
|
0.20%
|
-0.10%
|
Positive
|
USD
|
Revised UoM Inflation
Expectations
|
-
|
2.80%
|
-
|
