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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Daily Currency Outlook





DOLLAR-RUPEE


Dollar/rupee ended up on dollar buying by Nationalized banks most likely on behalf of Reserve Bank of India, while the dollar index declined to its lowest level in over 15 months after US manufacturing activity slowed by more than expected, raising concerns over global economic health, waning concerns of a Fed rate hike.


USD-INR remained in short term consolidation range of 66.55-66.95. On the daily chart, near term support is seen at 66.55 sustain trade below only will expect to show correction towards 66.30-66.10, else USDINR appear to set short term pullback towards 66.95 before any bearish move.


 Thereby, any rise towards 66.90-67.00 is appearing to set correction for the target 66.55-66.30 in days to come unless it gives a closing above 67.30. A break above this resistance could result 67.55-67.80 upside move.


 A break above this resistance could result 67.55-67.80 upside move.




EUR-RUPEE

Euro traded near five-month high Monday as dollar fell to over eight-month low after weaker than expected US economic data reduced prospects of a rate hike by Federal Reserve in the near term.

After breaching the resistance of 76.24 its previous swing high, EURINR jumped 76.65 and settled at 76.60.  Today,  EURINR would need to trade above 76.80 which is coincide with short term consolidation range and after that pair may test 77.10-77.35 its next resistance level.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 76.60 below it will expect to test 76.30-76.10.




GBP-RUPEE

Pound traded up for third straight day Monday as dollar fell to over eighth-month low following slew of weak economic data from the US lowered fears of a near-term rate hike by the Federal Reserve.


GBPINR witnessed more than 0.25% recovery rally from the day low 97.29 and tested 97.70 before closing at 97.69.   Near term resistance is seen at 97.80, and GBPINR would need to trade above these levels in order to test 98.00-98.50, else failure of the break will create probability for the correction from the every high of 97.35-97.50.






YEN-RUPEE

The currency jump over 18-month Monday as investors turned risk-averse after series of weak data from the US raised concerns over global economic health. Japanese markets will remain closed from Tuesday till Thursday for various public holidays.

JPYINR continued its recent bullish trend and after breaching 62.40 tested 62.66.  On the EOD chart a long bullish candle stick formation is indicating for bullishness in near future. 

Further, JPYINR need to trade above 62.70 in order to test 63.00 and above.








 Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
All Day
JPY
Bank Holiday
-
-
-
7:15am
CNY
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
49.8
49.7
Positive
2:00pm
GBP
Manufacturing PMI
51.3
51
Positive
2:30pm
EUR
PPI m/m
0.10%
-0.70%
Positive
7:30pm
USD
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
46.6
46.3
Positive
8:00pm
USD
FOMC Member Mester Speaks
-
-
-
All Day
USD
Total Vehicle Sales
17.3M
16.6M
Positive













More will update soon!!