Dollar/Rupee strong resistance 67.30
Dollar/rupee ended with little changed Thursday as strong
dollar offsets the impact of rebound in local stocks on likely FII inflows into
local shares, while greenback strengthened against major currencies as bets for
a June rate hike by Fed increased after Atlanta Fed President, Dennis Lockhart
Tuesday said a rate hike in Fed's next policy is "a real option.
Short term positive consolidation above the support
66.50 is looking like double bottom pattern which points to bearish trend
reversal and hints that USD-INR may test 67.50-67.80 very soon. However, the
pattern yet not completed and pair would need to break above 67.30 in order to
give confirmation.
Hence, any rise towards 67.00-67.15 may show correction for
the downside level 66.75-66.60 unless it gives a closing above 67.30.
U.S News Update
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said
in an interview Thursday that he continues to expect the economy will be able
to support a rate increase sometime this summer.
"Assuming we get stronger second-quarter data in terms
of consumer spending and we continue to make progress on our dual mandate, I
will be advocating we take further action in June or July," said Kaplan in
an interview with The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of a conference held
at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
Also, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John
Williams on Thursday told CNBC that raising interest rates two or three times
this year is "reasonable."
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that Fed wants to get back to a normal
interest-rate environment but won't move aggressively to raise rates.
Kashkari said the central bank is waiting to act until it
has data to support a move. He said he expects moderate economic growth.
"If we [raised rates] aggressively, we would be setting
the brakes on the economy," he said. "You will see us move when the
data allows." Kashkari doesn't hold a voting slot
on the interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard
said the jury is still out on whether he will support a June interest-rate
increase. "I am still open about wheteher short-term rates
should go up at the June 14-15 FOMC meeting," said Bullard. "There
will be plenty of new data between now and then, so there is no need to decide
until that evidence has been weighed," Bullard added. "We've got a
lot to learn here in the next weeks."
Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC.
US weekly applications for jobless benefits last week rose
17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2, 74,000, the Labour Department reported on
Thursday. Last week's increase was the largest since February of last year.
Investors across the globe await the US jobs data to be
released tonight for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's next move.
(tickernews)
Euro Extended falls for third-day
Euro traded down for third-straight day Thursday as dollar
strengthened ahead of the US non-farm payroll data set to be released Friday.
Euro zone has a Retail PMI data releases today and euro is
weakened mostly due to strength in Dollar's three-day rally suggest
increased bets for a Fed rate hike in June.
EUR-INR settled at 76.3225, down by 0.71%, while Euro/dollar
traded at $1.1434/euro compared to the previous close of $1.1486/euro.
Greenback strengthened against major currencies as bets for
a June rate hike by Fed increased after Atlanta Fed President, Dennis Lockhart
Tuesday said a rate hike in Fed's next policy is "a real option."
US non-farm payroll data for the month of April will be
released Friday and investors will watch the release to take cues.
European stocks traded higher as oil prices rose on Thursday
after wildfire in Canada and fighting in Libya are seen disrupting oil
production in these areas.
A strong reversal form the upper trend line is
indicating for bearishness in EURINR. Further correction is expected to come
below 76.25. Target would be 76.00-75.80. Immediate stop loss 76.50.
Great British Pound traded down
Pound traded down for third straight day Thursday as dollar
strengthened ahead of US Non-farm payroll data and slew of Federal Reserve
official speeches set for later today.
Today, U.K. had a no major data released today, yesterday
pound weakened after data released Thursday showed that Britain's services
sector grew at its lowest rate in more than three years in April.
GBP-INR settled at 96.5475, down 0.39%, while Pound/dollar
traded at $1.4486/pound compared to the previous close of $1.4498/pound.
Sell strategy given below 96.78 was successful with GBPINR
drop towards 96.50 levels. Near term trend is has been shifted into bearish
following the long bearish candle stick formation on the EOD chart. Further,
near term resistance is seen at 97.10, and GBPINR would need to trade above
these levels in order to test 97.35-97.65.
Japanese yen continued to fall
Yen slipped more than 0.50% yesterday ahead of the US
non-farm payroll data set to be released later Friday. Total traded
volume in currency remained low as Japanese Banks remained closed for third
straight day for various public holidays.
JPY-INR settled at 62.2550, down by 0.55%, while Dollar/yen
traded at Y107.26/$1 compared to the previous close of Y107.02/$1.
On the daily chart candle stick formation is not
sufficiently potent trend reversal signal, but any rise towards 62.60-62.80 is
expect to attract short term selling activities. Further, there is strong
resistance of 63.10 and JPYINR would need to trade above this level in order to
test 63.50-64.00
Intraday sell around 62.50-62.60 Target 62.25-62.00. Stop
loss above 62.75.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
4:45am
|
USD
|
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
5:20am
|
JPY
|
Monetary Base y/y
|
29.30%
|
28.50%
|
Positive
|
1:40pm
|
EUR
|
Retail PMI
|
-
|
49.2
|
-
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.30%
|
Neutral
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
203K
|
215K
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
Neutral
|
More will update soon!!
