Dollar/Rupee - Recommendation.
Sell around 66.90-67.00 Target 66.55- 66.30. Stop loss
above 67.25 (LTP 66.66)
Or
Buy above 67.30 Target 67.45-67.60. Stop loss below 66.90
Important factor/data from India
IIP core (y/y chg) 4 May
Dollar/rupee extended its fall for second consecutive
week and settled around 66.66 after the dollar drop towards its eight-month low
as weak US GDP data lowered fears of a near-term rate hike by the Federal
Reserve.
Technically, since 3 April 2016, USDINR managed to
trade below its strong resistance 67.30 which is coincide with 127% Fibonacci
Retracement of its previous swing, this may consider an impressive and strong
case for further fall in future.
However, snaky headline from the U.S. FOMC April
month Policy may materialize demand for the safe-haven currency. Thereby, any
rise towards 66.80-66.90 is expected to give an opportunity to establish a
short position unless pair gives a closing above the 67.15 levels.
On the other hand, sustain trade above
67.15 only could expect to test 67.55-67.80.
EUR-INR Recommendation
Sell around 75.90-76.00 Target 75.45-75.00. Stop loss
above 76.35. (LTP : 75.97)
Important factor/data from Europe:
ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR/INR witnessed sharp bounce back from the weekly low
of 74.9250 and tested 76.24 before closing at 75.97 levels as dollar weakened
further to eight-month low after weak GDP data from the world's largest economy
eased fears of a near-term rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Euro was also
supported by better than expected GDP data from the euro-zone.
The euro area economic growth accelerated more than
expected in the first quarter, preliminary data from Eurostat showed
Friday.
On the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing pattern is
indicating for bearishness in EUR/INR, but continued weakness in dollar index
may restrict EUR-INR loss.
Near term resistance is seen at 76.25 and a break above
only could expect to show upside move towards 76.80-77.00 and above.
GBP-INR Recommendation
Buy around 97.00-97.20 Target 97.60-97.95. Stop loss
below 96.85 (LTP: 97.42).
Important factor/data from U.K.
Services PMI
GBPINR extended its recent bullish move for third
consecutive week and jump towards 97.95 sparked by weakness in dollar which was
drop sharply after the Federal Reserve refrained from signaling any near-term
rate hike.
Meanwhile, gains in the pound were likely capped after a
fresh You Gov poll for the Times showed that those campaigning for Britain to
exit the European Union in a referendum in June were gaining ground.
Technically, Double bottom formation on weekly
chart resulted more than 1.25% rally last week and Short term trend is expected
to remain positive following to the breakout of the resistance of 96.70 which
is coinciding with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of previous fall.
Hence, this week any dip towards 97.20-97.00 may give
valid opportunity to make long positional for the target 97.90-98.50.
On the downside, crucial support is seen at 95.75 a
break below only could test 95.00-94.80.
JPYINR - Recommendation
Buy above 62.42 Target 62.80-63.10 Stop loss below 62.15.
(LTP : 62.18)
Important factor/data from Japan.
Monetary Policy Statement
BOJ Outlook Report
Japanese Yen posted its biggest weekly gains since 3
April 2016 against the Rupee and dollar index since Aug 28 2015 as Bank of
Japan refrained from venturing deeper into negative rate territory keeping
interest rate and stimulus programme unchanged at its monetary policy review.
Dollar/yen settled at Y106.45/$1 compared to the
previous close of Y111.79/$1, while JPY-INR settled at 62.18 compared to
previous week close of 60.14.
Technically, JPY-INR broke the strong resistance of
61.90 and tested 62.40 before closing at 62.18 levels. A failure of double top
formation on the weekly chart is indicating for continuation of recent bullish
trend.
Hence, any dip towards 61.25-61.35 is expected to
attract huge buying activities with immediate support of 60.85.
Dollar Index Crucial support 92.90
Important Data and Event
Non-Farm Employment Change
Dollar index took drastic fall last week, after U.S. Fed
and Bank of Japan decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at its policy
meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left its
benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, but tweaked its
policy statement, possibly preparing financial markets for another modest rate
hike in coming months.
Adding to this, dollar extended its loss after the
release of less than expected first quarter GDP data from the world's largest
economy.
Technically, a long bearish candle
stick formation on weekly chart is yet indicating for bearishness in dollar index,
and below 92.90 levels downside target might to be 92.55. A more conservative
target could be 92.20.
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
02.05.16
|
7:30pm
|
EUR
|
ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
51.6
|
51.8
|
Negative
|
||
|
03.05.16
|
7:15am
|
CNY
|
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
|
49.8
|
49.7
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
51.3
|
51
|
Positive
|
|
|
04.05.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction PMI
|
54.1
|
54.2
|
Negative
|
|
5:45pm
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
|
205K
|
200K
|
Positive
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
54.9
|
54.5
|
Positive
|
|
|
05.05.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
53.6
|
53.7
|
Negative
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
261K
|
257K
|
Negative
|
|
|
06.05.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.30%
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
206K
|
215K
|
Negative
|
||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
Neutral
|
More will update soon !!
