Dollar/Rupee
Dollar/Rupee posted its biggest
weekly loss since March 13 and settled at 67.3625 compared to the previous week
close of 67.9175.Pair has retraced 0.80% after three consecutive week’s
positive move.
Indian shares posted their biggest
weekly gain in five years Friday on foreign investors buying amid forecast of
better than average monsoon and agreement in between Euro zone finance
ministers and Greece to unlock 10.3 billion Euros in new bailout loan
contributed selling activities in USDINR.
Technically, on the weekly
chart, USDINR trading on verge of 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, and a
break below 67.25 is expect to extend recent bearish move towards 66.90 and
below, else a failure of the break down could create probability for upside
move towards 67.50-67.75 again.
Recommendation.
Buy around 67.35-67.40 Target
67.65-67.88. Stop loss below 67.25 (LTP : 67.36)
Or
Sell below 67.25 Target 66.95-66.70.
Stop loss above 67.50.
Dollar Index
Dollar Index jumped sharply and
tested 95.77 after key Federal Reserve officials including Chairperson Janet
Yellen suggested that an interest rate hike could be around the corner.
The greenback turn lower towards
94.92 levels on Thursday after a major breakthrough in talks between Euro zone
finance ministers and Greece to unlock 10.3 billion Euros in new bailout loans.
Technical,
Formation of three white
soldiers candle stick pattern on the weekly chart is indicating for bullishness
in dollar index which aiming for 96.50-97.00 next upside move. On
the downside, first immediate support is seen at below 95.70 and sustain trade
below only dollar index may retest 95.50-95.20.
EUR-Rupee
EUR-INR retraced from the weekly high
76.5150, and tested 75.3050 before closing at 75.37 levels. Pair was found some
support after Eurozone finance ministers agreed to disburse new bailout loans
to Greece, Greece will need to repay huge loans to the European Central Bank
and International Monetary Fund in July.
Dollar index which gave up some gains
on profit taking ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech also
restricted some losses.
Technically, a breakdown of
consolidation support is indicating for bearishness in EURINR and pair may test
74.80-74.25 very soon biased on the above pattern.
Recommendation
Sell below 75.30 Target 74.80-74.55
Stop loss above 75.60. (LTP : 75.3750)
GBP-Rupee
GBP-INR fluctuated in between gain
and losses last week. The pair witnessed an impressive rise towards one-week
high on lower risk of Britain's exit from European union after the latest ISM
poll on the UK's forthcoming EU referendum reported an even split on
Brexit, while pair retraced from the high after UK revises
downward Q1 GDP data.
Adding to this other data such as UK
business investment down by 0.5% on-quarter and down 0.4% on year.
Technically, a retracement from
weekly high 99.9925 to towards 98.10 levels is forming a spinning top candle
stick formation on weekly chart which points for bearishness in near
future. Further, GBPINR would need to trade below 98.40 in order to
test 98.00-97.50 and below.
Recommendation
Sell below 98.40 Target 97.80-97.35
Stop loss above 98.95 )
Important
factor/data from U.K.
Services PMI.
JPY -Rupee
Japanese Yen traded little changed
last week as investors refrained from taking large positions ahead of Federal
Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's speech due on weekend. Meanwhile,
the Japanese currency refused to react to the consumer inflation data from the
world's third largest economy released Friday.
Consumer prices in Japan fell 0.3% on
year in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Technical
This week, pair may take short term
pullback towards 61.65-61.80 following closing above the SMA. Further, a break
below 61.10 only appears to take correction towards 60.55-60.30.
Recommendation
Sell around 61.60-61.70 Target
60.90-60.55 Stop loss above 61.85 (LTP: 61.45).
Important
factor/data from Japan.
Household Spending y/y
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
31.05.16
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
96.1
|
94.2
|
Positive
|
|
01.06.16
|
6:30am
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
50
|
50.1
|
Negative
|
|
7:15am
|
CNY
|
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
|
49.3
|
49.4
|
Negative
|
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
49.6
|
49.2
|
Positive
|
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
50.6
|
50.8
|
Negative
|
|
|
02.06.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Construction PMI
|
52.1
|
52
|
Positive
|
|
All Day
|
ALL
|
OPEC Meetings
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
5:15pm
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
5:45pm
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
|
179K
|
156K
|
Positive
|
|
|
6:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Press Conference
|
||||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
271K
|
268K
|
Negative
|
||
|
03.06.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
52.3
|
52.3
|
Neutral
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
160K
|
160K
|
Neutral
|
||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
4.90%
|
5.00%
|
Positive
|
||
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.4
|
55.7
|
Negative
|
