USDINR May Future
Recommendation.
Sell around 66.90-67.00
Target 66.55- 66.30. Stop loss above 67.25 (LTP 66.81)
Or
Buy above 67.30 Target
67.45-67.60. Stop loss below 66.90
Important factor/data from
India
IIP for March (Previous
2.0%)
Dollar/Rupee witnessed mild
recovery from the weekly low of 66.5250 and settled with 0.21% gain at 66.81 as
greenback strengthen against other major currencies followed by an expectation
of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the near term.
However upside move remained
limited as overseas funds inflow into local shares offsets the impact of strong
dollar.
Technically, USD-INR has turned neutral
since 2 May 2016 and squeezed in a cluster of support 66.55 and resistance of
67.30. However, pair staged a mild recovery from the support and back to close
towards 66.81 compare with 66.6650 last week closing.
With that in mind, USD-INR expect to
continued its short term consolidation unless it give either side break, and
any rise towards 66.95-66.15 is appear to set short term selling activities.
EURINR May Future
Recommendation
Sell below 76.15 Target 75.65-75.25 Stop
loss above 76.50. (LTP : 76.35)
Important factor/data from Europe:
Flash GDP q/q
EUR-INR retraced more than 1.30% from the
weekly high 77.35 and settled at 76.3550 levels after the greenback recovered
gains other major currencies followed by an expectation of a rate hike by the
Federal Reserve in the near term especially after a slew of key Fed officials
in the past few days hinted of a possibility of rate hike in June in the
US.
On the weekly chart, a tall shadow candle
stick pattern is indicating for bearishness in EUR-INR, but continued weakness
in dollar index may restrict EUR-INR loss.
Near term resistance is seen at 77.40 and
a break above only could expect to show upside move towards 77.80-78.00 and
above.
GBPINR May Future
Recommendation
Sell around 97.30-97.40 Target
96.80-96.35 Stop loss above 97.65 (LTP: 96.8925).
Important factor/data from U.K.
Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank
Rate, BOE Gov Carney Speaks.
GBP-INR retraced from the weekly high
98.3150 and settled at 96.8925 levels after weak economic data from the UK and
as dollar strengthened on slew of Federal Reserve official speeches.
In start of the week, Pound has hit
its highest level since March 2016 as dollar fell after weaker than expected US
economic data easing expectations of a Fed rate hike in near term.
Technically, Double bottom formation on
weekly chart resulted in more than 4.30% rally from the low of 94.25 since 10
April 2016.
This week, GBP-INR expect to pause its
bullish trend any may retraced towards 95.75-95.00 again following to the
strong resistance of 98.35 coincide with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement
of previous fall. On the other hand, GBP-INR would need to trade
above 98.30 in order to test 99.00-99.50.
JPYINR May Future
Recommendation
Sell around 62.60-62.70 Targets
61.90-61.45. Stop loss above 63.10 (LTP: 62.44).
Important factor/data from Japan.
Current Account
Japanese Yen had a volatile week followed
by fluctuation in dollar index, and after hitting a multi week high 63.09
retraced towards 62.1175 amid speculative sentiment of Federal Reserve rate
hike and some downbeat economic data from U.S. released last week.
Technically, Buy
strategy given above 62.42 was initiated and pair tested 63.09 just near to
second target 63.10. A formation of hammer candle stick formation on weekly
chart is indicating for bullish trend reversal in JPY-INR.
Further, a break above 63.15 only
could expect to show next bullish move towards 63.50-64.00.
DOLLAR INDEX- Crucial Support 92.90
Important Data and Event
Core Retail Sales m/m
The dollar index reversed its trend after
hitting a multi-month lows of 91.88, and settled at 93.83 after renewed
expectation of Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term after Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said in an interview Thursday that he
continues to expect the economy will be able to support a rate increase
sometime this summer.
Adding to this, U.S. dollar found some
support after the yen slipped again as doubts persist about the direction of
Bank of Japan policy, while concerns about a possible UK exit from Europe
weighed on sterling, while currency negated the impact of weaker-than-expected
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Technically, the recent pullback is
appearing bullish piercing line pattern on the weekly chart, that’s aiming for
94.50-95.00 next upside move.
On the downside, first immediate
support is seen at below 92.90 sustain trade below only dollar index may retest
92.50-92.00.
High
Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
|
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
|
11.05.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
0.40%
|
-1.10%
|
Positive
|
|
12.05.16
|
4:30pm
|
GBP
|
BOE Inflation Report
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
GBP
|
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
|
0-0-9
|
0-0-9
|
Neutral
|
||
|
GBP
|
Monetary Policy Summary
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||
|
GBP
|
Official Bank Rate
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
Neutral
|
||
|
5:15pm
|
GBP
|
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
277K
|
274K
|
Negative
|
|
|
13.05.16
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
|
0.60%
|
0.20%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.10%
|
Positive
|
||
|
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
-0.30%
|
-0.30%
|
Neutral
|
||
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
89.9
|
89
|
Positive
|
|
|
14.05.16
|
11:00am
|
CNY
|
Industrial Production y/y
|
6.50%
|
6.80%
|
Negative
|
More will update soon!!
