Dollar/Rupee (Expect to consolidate)
Dollar/rupee
snapped three-day fall Monday, while the dollar index fell as investors
investors who were betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates
soon took profits on dollar's recent gains post Federal Reserve Chairwoman
Yellen fanned expectations for US rate hike in the near term.
Technical, USD-INR
retraced from the day high 67.7075 and settled at 67.4825 levels. On the Daily
chart, USD-INR remained below 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement and formed an
inverted hammer candle stick which is yet indicating for further correction in
near Future.
Further, a
break above 67.90 on closing basis only could open the door for 68.10-68.35 on
the upside.
Trading Strategy -
Sell on every rise towards 67.65-67.70 Target 67.30-67.15. Stop loss above
67.88.
EUR/Rupee (Trend is bearish)
Euro traded up
Monday after latest data showed that Eurozone economic confidence rose to a
four-month high in the month of May.
The survey results
from the European Commission showed that Eurozone economic sentiment index
improved more than expected to 104.7 from upwardly revised score of 104.0 a
month ago. Provisional estimate was 103.9 of April.
This was the
highest score since January. The economists had expected it to improve by
104.4.
EURINR retraced
from the day high 75.4225 and settled at 75.27 levels. On the hourly chart,
pair constructing bearish continuation pattern which aiming for the target
75.10 then 74.75 and below. Further, pair would need to trade
above 75.50 in order to test 75.80-76.00 on the upside.
Trading Strategy -
Sell around 75.30-75.40 Target 75.10-74.80. Stop loss above 75.55.
GBP/INR – (Trend is Volatile)
Pound was set to
post its longest losing streak in three weeks Monday on expectation of a second
Federal Reserve rate hike in seven years after Chair Janet Yellen's speech on
Friday.
Sell strategy
given around 98.90 was initiated and GBPINR drop towards 98.55, near to second
target 98.40. On the EOD chart formation of long bearish candle
stick is indicating bearishness in GBPINR.
Near term
resistance is seen at 99.20, and sustain trade above only could expect to test
99.60-100.00; else any rise towards 98.90-99.00 may attract short term selling
activities.
Trading
Strategy - Sell on every rise towards 99.10-99.20 Target 98.80-98.50. Stop loss
above 99.35
Above 99.35 will
expect to test 99.80 and above
Japanese Yen/ Rupee (Trend Bearish)
Yen plunged more
than 1% on Monday as safe-haven appeal for yen declined on report
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering to delay the sales tax hike
planned for April next year. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday
reportedly told top government officials of his plans to delay the tax
increase.
Buy strategy given
around 61.30 was not initiated in JPYINR, as after witnessing a gap down open
at 61.10 pair test 60.74 day low. A failure of bullish piercing candle stick
pattern on EOD chart is indicating for bearishness in JPYINR.
Further, pair
would need to trade below 60.64 in order to give correction towards 60.30-60.00.
Trading
Strategy - Sell on every rise towards 60.75-60.85 Target 60.55-60.25. Stop loss
above 60.9800.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
5:00am
|
JPY
|
Household
Spending y/y
|
-1.00%
|
-5.30%
|
Positive
|
|
JPY
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
3.20%
|
3.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
5:20am
|
JPY
|
Prelim
Industrial Production m/m
|
-1.40%
|
3.80%
|
Negative
|
|
10:30am
|
JPY
|
Housing Starts
y/y
|
3.90%
|
8.40%
|
Negative
|
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Retail
Sales m/m
|
1.10%
|
-1.10%
|
Positive
|
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Prelim
CPI m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
1:25pm
|
EUR
|
German
Unemployment Change
|
-4K
|
-16K
|
Positive
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
M3 Money Supply
y/y
|
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
Italian Monthly
Unemployment Rate
|
11.30%
|
11.40%
|
Negative
|
|
|
EUR
|
Private Loans
y/y
|
1.50%
|
1.60%
|
Negative
|
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
CPI Flash
Estimate y/y
|
-0.10%
|
-0.20%
|
Negative
|
|
EUR
|
Core CPI Flash
Estimate y/y
|
0.80%
|
0.70%
|
Positive
|
|
|
EUR
|
Italian Prelim
CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
-0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
|
EUR
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
10.20%
|
10.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price
Index m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Personal
Spending m/m
|
0.60%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
|
USD
|
Personal Income
m/m
|
0.40%
|
0.40%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
6:30pm
|
USD
|
S&P/CS
Composite-20 HPI y/y
|
5.10%
|
5.40%
|
Negative
|
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
50.8
|
50.4
|
Positive
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
CB Consumer
Confidence
|
96.1
|
94.2
|
Positive
|
