Dollar/Rupee – Strong resistance above 67.15
Dollar/rupee posted its longest winning streak in three months Monday on dollar demand by importers and as overseas investor’s repatriated funds after selling local shares, while the dollar index traded little changed as investors awaited the outcomes of US and Japanese central bank meetings set for this week.
USD-INR extended its recent pullback on Monday and settled with 0.23% again. Since 6 April 2016 pair is struggling to cross its short term resistance of 66.95 and consolidating around 66.75-66.30 levels. A daily close below this resistance is appearing to set correction around 66.80-66.75 in days to come unless it gives a closing above 66.95.
The short term sentiment however remains volatile ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting outcome set for Wednesday.
EUR/RUPEE – Strong resistance above 75.55
Euro snapped three-day gains Monday as dollar pared gains in European trades on caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting outcome set for Wednesday.
Also, euro strengthened on risk-aversion in the European stocks ahead of US and Japan's monetary policy meeting later this week
Sell strategy given on rise 75.15-75.20 was initiated and after hitting a low of 74.9250 EURINR settled at 75.0325. On the EOD chart pair still trading below the strong resistance 75.55 which is indicating for bearishness in near future.
Further, a break above this resistance only could expect to test 75.80-75.
Else any rise towards 75.44-75.50 may attract huge selling pressure for the target 75.00-74.80.
GBP/Rupee – Will expect to test 97.00-97.20
Pound traded near six-week high Monday as chances of Britain voting to leave the European Union in the June referendum fell while investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision later this week.
Sentiments in the UK improved as US President Barack Obama in his official visit to the UK, appealed Britain to remain in the 28-country bloc saying that Britain could have to wait a decade for a free trade deal with the United States if it votes to leave the European Union.
GBPINR continued its pullback on Monday also and settled with a gain of 0.78%. A long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for momentum upside move in GBPINR.
Hence, one can buy around 96.25-96.30 for the target 96.50-96.75.
Japanese Yen – Fresh sell expect below 59.90, else pullback towards 60.50-60.80
Yen traded down Monday on profit taking after the currency pair posted its biggest single day gain in near 18-months on speculation of a further cut in Bank of Japan's key policy rates in its policy meet set for later this week.
The US dollar rose to its highest level against the yen in nearly three weeks on Friday after a report said the Bank of Japan is considering expanding its negative rate policy to bank loans and could cut rates further.
JPYINR continued its bearish trend for fifth consecutive day and settled down by 0.26%. Since 18 April 2016 pair is fallowing the double top candle stick pattern which yet indicating for bearishness in JPYINR.
Sell strategy given on rise was successful with pair drop towards 60.1125. Today, correction is expected to come below 59.90, else pair will expect to take pullback towards 60.50-60.80 before any correction.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
BBA Mortgage Approvals
|
46.1K
|
45.9K
|
Negative
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
0.60%
|
-1.30%
|
Positive
|
USD
|
Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
1.90%
|
-3.00%
|
Positive
| |
6:30pm
|
USD
|
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
|
5.50%
|
5.70%
|
Negative
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Flash Services PMI
|
52.3
|
51.3
|
Positive
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
95.8
|
96.2
|
Negative
|
USD
|
Richmond Manufacturing Index
|
11
|
22
|
Negative
| |
10:30pm
|
GBP
|
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
More will update soon!!
