EURINR
European Central Bank
monetary policy meeting outcome due at 5.15pm today, followed by a press
conference with President Mario Draghi at 6pm (any dovish statements by Draghi
may bring decent fall in EUR/USD and EUR/INR)
The ECB started its negative interest
rate policy nearly two years ago and then in March last year started buying
bonds in a large-scale program known as quantitative easing.
At its meeting on 10th March, the
central bank cut of its deposit rate by 0.1 to Minus-0.4%, cut the marginal
lending rate by 0.05 to 0.25% and the refinance rate by 0.05% to zero,
increased the size and scope of its bond buying program by €20 billion to €80
billion and announced new loans designed to give banks an incentive to lend money
to euro zone firms and households.
Technical
A high wave candle stick formation on
EOD chart is indicating for indecisive trend in EURINR, but any rise towards
75.25-75.35 expect to attract huge selling pressure unless it gives a closing
above 75.55. A break above it will expect to test 75.80-76.00.
Sell on rise around 75.25-75.35
Target 74.80-74.60. Stop los above 75.55.
Dollar/Rupee
Dollar/rupee posts its biggest single
day fall in over four-week Wednesday on dollar selling by foreign banks likely
for their corporate clients amid weak dollar.
The currency pair weakened for
the second straight day on strong corporate inflows and tracking weakness in
the greenback.
Technical
As per the bearish view given since
31 March 2016, USDINR retraced 66.9025 and drop towards yesterday low 66.1575
levels. A breakdown of short term triangle pattern on hourly chart
is yet indicating for bearishness in USDINR.
Further, pair would need to
trade above immediate resistance levels 66.50 in order to show pullback towards
66.80 else, any rise towards 66.35-66.40 is expected to give an opportunity to
establish a short position for the target 66.05-65.90.
GBP/Rupee
Pound fluctuated Wednesday ahead of
further cues from the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting outcome
set for Thursday and the policy makers aren't expected to announce new moves as
the central bank announced comprehensive easing package last month.
Technical
After witnessing a gap up opening at
95.0275, GBPINR settled at 95.3350 levels. Near term resistance is seen at
95.50 sustain trade above only will expect to test 95.80-96.00; else any rise
towards 95.40 could attract huge selling pressure for the target 95.00-94.80
and below.
JPY/Rupee
Yen witnessed 1.37% decent fall on
Wednesday tracking dollar weakness on fading prospects of a Federal Reserve
rate hike in near term following weak economic data and dovish comment from key
Fed officials.
However, the fall in the
currency pair was limited after Bank of Japan Governor Wednesday hinted of more
monetary stimulus. The comment comes ahead of BoJ's monetary policy meeting due
next week.
Technical
Double top candle stick pattern
resulted more than 1.30% decent fall in JPYINR yesterday and pair settled at
66.6625 below the crucial support 60.92. Near term trend is expect to remain
bearish following to the above formation, and any rise towards 60.85-60.90
could attract huge selling pressure for the target 60.40-60.00 and below.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
-0.10%
|
-0.40%
|
Positive
|
GBP
|
Public Sector Net Borrowing
|
5.6B
|
6.5B
|
Negative
|
|
Tentative
|
EUR
|
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
|
-
|
1.50|1.5
|
-
|
5:15pm
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Neutral
|
6:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Press Conference
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
|
8.1
|
12.4
|
Negative
|
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
265K
|
253K
|
Negative
|
|
6:30pm
|
USD
|
HPI m/m
|
0.40%
|
0.50%
|
Negative
|
7:30pm
|
EUR
|
Consumer Confidence
|
-9
|
-10
|
Neutral
|
GBP
|
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
USD
|
CB Leading Index m/m
|
0.40%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
Impact: High Low Medium
