Recommendation - USD-INR April
Sell around 66.80-66.90 Target 66.55- 66.30. Stop loss above 67.10 (LTP 66.69)
Important factor/data from India
18 Apr - WPI inflation for March
18-19 - Foreign Merchandise Trade (Export and Import)
Dollar/Rupee witnessed slightly recovery from the weekly low 66.3850 and settled almost flat at 66.7250. The rupee gave back some gains against the dollar after China reported favorable trade balance data which eased global slowdown fears and a case for Federal Reserve rate hike.
The pair touched 66.3850 levels after India's March retail inflation accelerated at its lowest pace in six months coupled with upbeat monsoon forecasts by the India Meteorological Department. Technically, Since 28 Feb USDINR has drop more than 4.67% from the level of 69.5650 which may consider an impressive and strong case for further fall in near term.
However, snaky headline from the world major central bank may materialize demand for the safe haven currency.
Thereby, any rise towards 66.80-66.90 is expected to give an opportunity to establish a short position unless pair gives a closing above the 67.15 levels.
On the other hand, sustain trade above 67.15 only could expect to test 67.55-67.80.
Recommendation - EUR-INR APRIL
Sell below 75.35 Target 74.80-74.40. Stop loss above 75.70. (LTP : 75.4550)
Important factor/data from Europe
Minimum Bid Rate & ECB Press Conference
Euro/Rupee retraced from the weekly high 76.36 and posted its biggest intraday loss in over 7-weeks as dollar strengthened after robust Chinese data boosted investors sentiments easing concerns of global slowdown.
Sell strategy given on rise 76.20-76.30 was initiated and EURINR drop towards second target 75.40, weekly low was at 75.3950 tested.
Technically, on the weekly chart two similar top candle stick is forming double top pattern which is indicating for bearishness in EURINR.
Hence, this week a break below 75.35 may show 74.80-74.50 very soon. Further, EURINR would need to trade above 76.40 in order to test 77.00-77.50 on the upside.
Recommendation - GBP-INR APRIL
Sell around 95.20-95.30 Target 94.50-94.00 Stop loss above 95.75 (LTP: 95.08).
Important factor/data from U.K.
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Claimant Count Change
GBP/INR settled with 1.05% gain at 95.0825 on the back of weakness in dollar index as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in near term waned following dovish comment from key Fed officials, while, e GBP/USD settled at 1.4207 after the Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged and gave no indication of any future changes as Brexit possibilities could hurt growth of the country.
Technically, term trend expect to remain bearish and any rise towards 95.20-95.30 could attract huge selling pressure for the target 94.00-93.50. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.75 sustain trade above only could test 96.00-96.35.
Recommendation - JPY-INR APRIL
Sell around 61.75-61.80 Target 61.35-61.00 Stop loss above 61.90 (cmp 61.7475)
Important factor/data from Japan.
Trade Balance
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
The Japanese safe-haven currency retraced from the weekly high 61.84 and tested 60.9325 before closing at 61.0525 levels on expectations of further delay in rate hike in the world's largest economy.
Further, the BOJ is struggling to achieve its 2 percent inflation target, which is a key part of premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to conclusively end a long phase of debilitating deflation which also contributed selling activities.
Technically, a double top formation on the weekly chart is indicating for decent fall in JPYINR and correction is expected to come below 60.90.
On the other hand, strong resistance is seen at 61.90 sustain trade above only could expect to test 62.25-62.50 and above.
Important Data and Event
Unemployment Claims
DOLLAR INDEX
Important Data and Event
Unemployment Claims
Dollar index has stalled its fall and recovered more than 0.49% from the weekly low of 93.62 as hopes of delay in US Fed rate hike waned after China reported upbeat trade balance data thus indicating that the world's second-largest economy's health was improving amid mixed U.S. economic data.
The dollar received an additional boost after Singapore’s central bank took a surprise decision to move a neutral policy of 0% appreciation in the exchange rate a policy last used during the 2008 global financial crisis, which lifted clutter for local dollar and Asia Pacific currencies against the U.S.
Technically, a high wave candle stick formation after six consecutive week fall is indicating for short term pull back before any correction in dollar index.
Near term resistance is seen at 94.85 sustain trade above will expect to test 95.50, while on the downside crucial support is seen at 93.50 coincide with previous swing low and a break below only could test 93.20-93.00.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
19.04.16
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
8.2
|
4.3
|
Positive
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Building Permits
|
1.20M
|
1.18M
|
Positive
| |
8:05pm
|
GBP
|
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
| |
20.04.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
|
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
Neutral
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change
|
-11.9K
|
-18.0K
|
Neutral
| ||
21.04.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
-0.10%
|
-0.40%
|
Positive
|
5:15pm
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Neutral
| |
6:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Press Conference
|
-
|
-
|
-
| |
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
|
8.1
|
12.4
|
Negative
| ||
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
265K
|
253K
|
Negative
|
More will Update soon....
