Dollar index drop towards 8 month low
Dollar index fell Friday after the release of less than expected first quarter GDP data from the world's largest economy. Dollar index fell to over 8 months low at 93.48, its lowest level since Aug 26. In near term and prices expected to test 93.18-92.90 next support
Dollar index witnessed decent fall and tested predicated level of 93.49 as per the bearish view given on 12 April 2016
Click on the link ( Dollar Index Bearish View given on 12 April )
Click on the link ( Dollar Index Bearish View given on 12 April )
The dollar fell sharply against other currencies, after data showing the US economy grew at its slowest rate in two years during the first quarter.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated it was in no hurry to raise interest rates in coming months, another factor weighing on the dollar.
U.S.
Data Update
Gross domestic product,
a broad measure of economic output, advanced at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted
annualized rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said.
Slow first quarters followed by a rebound have been common in
recent years, leaving hope for better months ahead. The US economy contracted
in the opening quarter of 2014 and barely grew at the outset of 2015, only to
bounce back and leave the economy on the same staid trajectory seen during much
of the expansion. For all of 2015, GDP advanced 2.4%, the same as 2014.
Meanwhile, US seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless
benefits increased to 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the revised level of the
previous week, the US Labor Department said Thursday.
USD/JPY extends losses, down 3.71% since
yesterday, after Bank of Japan surprises markets by maintaining status quo at
policy
The yen jump towards an 18-month high against the dollar on
Friday and trading at 107.32 levels after the Bank of Japan's decision the
previous day to hold off from expanding its monetary stimulus.
Dollar/yen posts biggest single day fall in eight months
Thursday after the Bank of Japan surprised the market by keeping interest rate
and stimulus programme unchanged at its monetary policy review.
Dollar/yen traded at Y107.34/$1 compared to the previous
close of Y108.09/$1.
Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback most in a single
day since Aug 28 2015 as Bank of Japan refrained from venturing deeper into
negative rate territory.
The policy board governed by Haruhiko Kuroda decided by an 8-1
majority vote to hold its target of raising the monetary base at an annual pace
of about JPY 80 trillion.
Contributing further to yen's strength was the US Fed comment
that raised concerns about global slowdown, and thereby increasing demand for
safer currencies like Yen.
While, JPY/INR jumped more than 3.73% following to the fall of
USD-JPY.
Near term trend is expect to remain bullish following to the
break out of previous swing high of 61.90, and any dip towards 61.90-62.00 may
bring huge buying activities for the target 62.35-62.70 and above.
USD/INR falls slightly on likely FII inflows, weak dollar index
Dollar/rupee ends down snapping two days of losses Thursday on
likely overseas funds outflow from local stocks tracking sell-off in Asian and
European stocks as risk appetite plunged after Bank of Japan refrained from
easing its monetary policy further against the market expectations.
After hitting a low of 66.7150, USD-INR saw a consolidation
around 66.85 and settled at 66.90 levels. For the short term perspective
technical aspects is not yet changed as Since 6 April 2016, USDINR continued to
trade in between 66.95-66.55 levels.
Thereby, any rise towards 66.90-67.00 is appearing to set
correction for the target 66.55-66.30 in days to come unless it gives a closing
above 67.30. A break above this resistance could result 67.55-67.80 upside
move..
EUR
jump towards 76.15
Euro traded up for fourth straight session Thursday as dollar
weakened after the US central bank held interest rates unchanged.
The European Commission on Thursday said that its Economic
Sentiment Indicator, which aggregates measures of consumer and business
confidence--rose to 103.9 in April from 103.0 in March.
Sell strategy given on rise 75.55-75.60 was failed to test 75.25
on the downside, and after breaching the resistance 75.80 EURINR tested 75.9825
its day high.
On the EOD chart, short term trend has been shifted
positive. Further, a break above the 76.10 could result next resistance
76.40-76.60.
Great
British Pound
Pound/Rupee traded up Thursday as dollar weakened after the
Federal Reserve refrained from signalling any near-term rate hike. Pound strengthened against the
greenback after Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged in its policy
meeting on Wednesday and said that global economic headwinds remained on its
radar.
GBPINR remained below the high wave candle stick high, and
after hitting a low of 96.9925 settled at 97.26 levels. Intraday price action resulted in
formation of inverted hammer candle stick formation which is indicating for
bullish trend reversal in GBPINR.
Near term resistance is seen at 97.80, and GBPINR would need to
trade above these levels in order to test 98.00-98.50, else failure of the
break will create probability for the correction from the every high of
97.35-97.50.
Major
Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
All Day
|
JPY
|
Bank Holiday
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
11:00am
|
EUR
|
French Prelim GDP q/q
|
0.40%
|
0.30%
|
Positive
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales m/m
|
0.30%
|
-0.40%
|
Positive
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Consumer Spending m/m
|
-0.10%
|
0.60%
|
Negative
|
EUR
|
French Prelim CPI m/m
|
0.10%
|
0.70%
|
Negative
|
|
12:30pm
|
EUR
|
Spanish Flash GDP q/q
|
0.70%
|
0.80%
|
Negative
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
|
11.60%
|
11.70%
|
Negative
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
|
5.0B
|
4.9B
|
Positive
|
GBP
|
M4 Money Supply m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.90%
|
Negative
|
|
GBP
|
Mortgage Approvals
|
74K
|
74K
|
Neutral
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
|
-0.10%
|
0.00%
|
Negative
|
EUR
|
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
|
0.90%
|
1.00%
|
Negative
|
|
EUR
|
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
Unemployment Rate
|
10.30%
|
10.30%
|
Neutral
|
|
5:30pm
|
GBP
|
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index m/m
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
Neutral
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index q/q
|
0.60%
|
0.60%
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Personal Spending m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.10%
|
Positive
|
|
USD
|
Personal Income m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.20%
|
Positive
|
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
53.1
|
53.6
|
Negative
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
90.3
|
89.7
|
Positive
|
USD
|
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
|
-
|
2.70%
|
-
|
More will update soon!!
