Indian stock markets took a breather on Friday after four
sessions of gains with shares swinging both ways, but the indexes were still
poised for their best weekly gain in more than four years after the government
unveiled a fiscally prudent federal budget.
Indian Equity Market Summary:
- Indian Market opened with positive note with the Union budget providing the much needed push to the market with Nifty gaining 6.48% in a week.
- Bank Nifty posts biggest weekly gains in 10 years. Nifty Bank recovered more than 300 points from day's low as all banks stocks were in green. SBI (up over three percent) and HDFC Bank (up over one percent) rebounded. ICICI Bank extended upside, rising 2.5 percent.
- The NSE banking index has risen 10.2 percent this week and is heading for its best weekly gain in nearly two years.
- Software stocks such as HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services and Tech Mahindra shed between 0.5 percent and 3 percent on Friday. Shares were hit by profit-taking after the S&P BSE Information Technology index gaining 4.6 percent this week, heading for its best weekly gain in more than 7 months.
- The Sensex gained 1,492.18 points, or 6.44%, in the week while the Nifty advanced 455.60 points, or 6.48%, in the same period. In terms of points, the indices posted their best weekly gains since May 2009 and in percentage terms the highest since December 2011.
- The BSE Bankex, BSE Realty and BSE Metal indices were the top performers this week, advancing 11.75%, 11.34% and 10.22%, respectively. The BSE Bankex and BSE Realty indices are still down 9.54% and 13.18%, respectively, year to date. BSE Metals index has managed to notch a gain of 0.55% for the year so far.
- Banking stocks also surged after RBI on Tuesday eased Tier-I capital regulations at a time when banks are grappling with bad loans and higher provisions, which in turn are weighing on capital levels.
- Top lender State Bank of India gained 20.58% this week, making it the best performer among Sensex stocks. Rival ICICI Bank Ltd was up 19.29% in the week, To be sure, these stocks are still down 16.04% and 15.66%, respectively, year to date.
NIFTY 50
7308-7235 - BULLISH GAP
While moving higher, both Sensex and Nifty left behind a Bullish
Rising Gap between Sensex 24043-23821
and Nifty 7308-7235. This Gap will acts as strong Support going forward. Besides this Gap is also a Measuring Gap, the relevant Target as per Gap Theory falls at
Sensex 25370 and Nifty 7718.
Positional
Resistance for NIFTY 7518-7566-7699- 7969.
Intraday
Resistance of NIFTY are 7539.4 - 7592.4 - 7605.9- 7624
Intraday
Support of NIFTY are 7411.8 - 7358.8 - 7346.5 - 7328.7
Post Budget, Volatility Index India VIX dropped
from 22 to around 17 levels. This event is called Volatility Crunch and it
exactly played out as expected. Option traders who created short Vega
strategies would have benefited immensely.
Options data for February series
indicates highest Put Open Interest build-up at the strike of 7000 and
highest Call build-up at the strike of 7500. Thus Option data
suggests a trading range with resistance coming in at 7500 and support at 7000.
India’s benchmark equity indices posted their best weekly
gains in absolute terms in nearly seven years as investors cheered the
government’s commitment to its fiscal consolidation road map in budget 2016 and
prospects of lower borrowing costs as a result.
“NO ‘NEGATIVE’ IS GOOD NEWS”
As expected the market went into a short covering mode on completion
of the Union Budget. Last week, it was mentioned that no negative news will be
perceived as good news for the market; the market played on similar lines as
there were no devils in the Budget. There was no structural change in Long Term
Capital Gain Tax, and the Fiscal Discipline targets were adhered to. This
pushed the market higher and the Bears had to run to cover their shorts. Thus
Nifty tested and overcame Resistance zone of 7323-7363 and now is on course to
test the strong Resistance zone of Nifty 7534-7600.
NIFTY 50 TOP WEEKLY GAINERS
Comapany
|
Current price
|
Change
|
%change
|
Vedanta
|
87.4
|
15.6
|
21.73%
|
SBI
|
188.4
|
32.5
|
20.85%
|
ICICI Bank
|
220.5
|
35.7
|
19.32%
|
Tata Steel
|
288.55
|
40.1
|
16.14%
|
PNB
|
83
|
10.5
|
14.48%
|
Hindalco
|
79.4
|
9.95
|
14.33%
|
Tata Motors
|
343.5
|
41.7
|
13.82%
|
BHEL
|
107.6
|
12.5
|
13.14%
|
NIFTY 50 TOP WEEKLY LOSERS
Company
|
Current Price
|
Change
|
Change %
|
HCL Tech.
|
835.4
|
-23.9
|
-2.78%
|
Idea Cellular
|
105.65
|
-2.7
|
-2.49%
|
Tech Mahindra
|
451.25
|
-10.5
|
-2.27%
|
Asian Paints
|
865.8
|
-14.45
|
-1.64%
|
Sun Pharma Inds.
|
856.8
|
-14.1
|
-1.62%
|
Maruti Suzuki
|
3555.1
|
-53.55
|
-1.48%
|
Cairn India
|
128.15
|
-1.75
|
-1.35%
|
Ultratech Cement
|
2906.9
|
-37.35
|
-1.27%
|
FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR TRADING ACTIVITY(in Crore)
Date
|
Gross
Purchase
|
Gross
Sales
|
Net
Purchase / Sales
|
Total
|
21847.72
|
18828.48
|
3019.22
|
03 Mar 2016
|
5931.25
|
4223.02
|
1708.23
|
02 Mar 2016
|
7482.11
|
4464.86
|
3017.25
|
01 Mar 2016
|
8434.36
|
10140.6
|
-1706.26
|
DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR TRADING ACTVITY(in Crore)
Date
|
Gross Purchase
|
Gross Sales
|
Net Purchase / Sales
|
Total
|
10323.61
|
11304.47
|
-980.86
|
04 Mar 2016
|
1393.43
|
1926.53
|
-533.1
|
03 Mar 2016
|
1845.35
|
2310.1
|
-464.75
|
02 Mar 2016
|
2024.92
|
2618.59
|
-593.67
|
01 Mar 2016
|
2203.55
|
3038.14
|
-834.59
|
29 Feb 2016
|
2586.36
|
1411.11
|
1445.25
|
This week recommendations
|
||||
Stock
|
CMP
|
SL
|
Tgt 1
|
Tgt 2
|
Buy
BEML
|
1053
|
1025
|
1095
|
1139
|
Buy
Allahabad Bank
|
50 |
48 |
54 |
59 |
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained in this
commentary is not a complete presentation of every material fact regarding any
industry, security or the fund and is neither an offer for units nor an
invitation to invest. This communication is meant for use by the recipient and
not for circulation/ reproduction without prior approval. The views expressed
are based on current market conditions and information available to them and do
not constitute investment advice.
