Commodity weekly technical outlook and recommendations for the week 22 - 26 Feb 2016

Last week Global Market Closing Rate

Global Market	Last Close	% Change
Gold	$1225.8	-0.92
Silver	$15.33	-2.44
Crude	$31.95	8.53
NG	$1.808	-8.04
Copper	$2.08	2.11

GOLD

Trend still looks positive, buy in panic will be best trading strategy

After mind blowing rally we have seen high volatility in Gold though bias was positive. It made a low of 28425 and a high of 29638 and finally settled with a weekly gain of 0.44% at 27515 along with it closed above 21DEMA and 55 DEMA which is at 28326 and 27145 respectively.

Gold has support at 29240 and resistance at 29700. Close above 29700 will take to 30000---30200 and then to 30700+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 29240 again. Close below 29240 will see further downside panic till 29070---28900 and then to 28650 mark in days to come. Gold is trading in a very wide range and has crucial support at 28350. Further downside panic will see only weekly close below 28350 mark else we will see rally remain continue in Gold.

MACD and RSI still showing strength on daily as well as on weekly chart. A long bullish candle in last week too shows strength in Gold and chances are bright for higher upside move in it. On Comex division, Gold has support at $1190 and resistance at $1265. We will expect that it could test its resistance level of $1265. Two consecutive closes above $1265 will see further upside rally till $1290---$1305+ mark in days to come. Above $1156 our ultimate target intact $1339. Fresh selling can initiate only weekly close below $1190. So any sharp panic will be buying opportunity in Gold but with strict stop loss.

Recommendation Traders can buy Gold above 29700 and add more lot around 29400 with stop loss of 29240 for the initial target of 30000---30200.  SILVER Looks positive on charts, buy on dips will be good opportunity We have seen range bound trading in Silver though bias was negative. It made a high of 37750 and finally settled with a weekly loss of 1.23% at 37517 along with it closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 36496 and 34489 respectively. Silver has support at 36700 and resistance at 38100. Close above 37600 will take to 38000---38100 and then to 38100+ mark in days to come. Further upside rally seen only above 38100 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 38100 will see fire in Silver till 42000---43000+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 36700 again. Close below 36700 will see panic till 36100---35800 mark. More and more panic will see only weekly close below 35500 mark.  On Comex division, Silver has support at $14.80 and resistance at $16.00. We will expect that it could test its resistance level of $15.70---$16.00. Two consecutive closes above $16.00 will see further upside rally till $16.80---$17.30+ mark in days to come. Fresh selling can initiate only weekly close below $14.80. MACD and RSI showing positive diversion on charts and chances are bright for upside move in it. Any sharp panic will be buying opportunity in Silver but with strict stop loss. Recommendation Traders can trade with levels only and wait for confirmation CRUDE OIL Volatility remain continue, trade safely with levels only As expected, we have seen high volatility in Crude oil. It made a high of 2190 and low of 1973 and finally settled with a weekly gain of 1.15% at 2029 along with it closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 2231 and 2424 respectively. This week, Crude oil has support at 2160 and resistance at 2400. Close below 2160 will take to 2115----2070 and then to 2025 mark in days to come. More and more downside panic will see only weekly close below 1960 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2280---2330 and then to 2400 mark again.More and more power will see only weekly close above 2400 mark. Now down side and upper side seems limited in Crude oil and we will expect a long consolidation phase in Crude oil for next few weeks in the range of 1800---2500. MACD and RSI too not indicating clear direction on charts. Here traders can try to trade safely with levels only. Nimble traders can try to get an opportunity to trade with in and out strategy until and unless any major clear direction seen in it or news comes out from developed economics. Recommendation Traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation NATURAL GAS Our sell call proven great, book profit We clearly indicate to sell Natural gas on rise around 145 with stop loss of 152 for the downside target of 133--118. It made a high of 147.80 and crashed vertically to 123.50 mark and finally settled with a weekly loss of 7.54% at 123.80 along with it closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 135.90 and 141.80 respectively. This week, Natural gas has support at 123---118 and resistance at 129---135. Close below 123 will take to 120---118 mark. Two consecutive closes below 118 will see further downside move till 110---104 and then to 96 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 129---135 again. Further upside rally seen only weekly close above 135 mark. Overall trend still looks weak and any sharp rise will be selling opportunity in it. MACD and RSI too indicates that negativity remain continue in Natural gas until and unless any major change from the house of developed economics. Traders holding short in Natural gas can book part profit and revise stop loss above 135 on closing basis.  Recommendation Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss above 135 on closing basis. COPPER Double bottom pattern confirms above 324, buy on dips will be good trading strategy Last week, we have seen positive momentum in Copper. It unable to close below 308 and bounced back sharply to 318.05 and finally settled with a weekly gain of 3.12% at 316.05 also closed above 21DEMA and 55 DEMA which is at 310.50 and 311 respectively. Copper has support at 308 and resistance at 324. Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 320---324. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 324 will see fire in Copper till 335---342 and then to 355+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 308 gain. Close below 308 will take to 300---296 and then to 290 mark. Copper is forming double pattern on weekly chart and break above 324 will confirm the pattern along with it MACD and RSI too showing strength on daily as well as weekly chart. Traders can buy and accumulate Copper in panic around 314---310 with stop loss of 290 for the upside target of 340---355+ mark with holding period of 3-4 weeks. Recommendation Buy Copper above 314---310 with stop loss below 290 for the initial target of 340---355 NICKEL Looks positive and in panic will buy, trade with levels only Last week, Nickel traded with positive bias. It unable to breach its support level of 520 and bounced back sharply to 594 and finally settled with a weekly loss of 5.64% at 592.20 also closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 570.50 and 579.90 respectively. This week, Nickel has support at 580---555 and resistance at 610---625. Above 580 we will see rally till 610---625 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 625 will see fire in Nickel will see fire till 680---730+ mark in days to come. Nickel looks highly positive on charts and any sharp panic will be buying opportunity in it. Cross over of falling trend line indicates that Nickel will get retracement up to 23.8% to 38.2% or it may test 50% retracement level too in this rally. Traders can buy and accumulate Nickel in panic around 590---580 with stop loss of 555 for the initial target of 610---625 Recommendation Traders can buy and accumulate Nickel in panic around 590---580 with stop loss of 555 for the initial target of 610---625 SOYABEAN Range bound trading continues and this trend remains continue in this week too.... Last week, we have seen negative bias momentum in Soyabean. It made a low of 3755 and a high of 3841 and finally settled with a weekly loss of 0.45% at 3784 bit close below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 3804 and respectively. Soyabean is trading in a very tight range from last few weeks. Soyabean is forming triangle pattern on daily chart. Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Soyabean has support at 3730 and resistance at 3860. Close below 3730 will see panic till 3660 and then to 3600---3540 mark. More and more panic will see only weekly close below 3540 mark else it could test its resistance level of 3860 again. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 3960 will see nonstop rally in Soyabean. On seeing fundamental and technical outlook, chances are bright for upside move in Soyabean along with it MACD and RSI too shows strength on daily chart but trade with levels only and wait for confirmation. Recommendation Traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation. Research Desk - Indian Market View www.indianmarketview.com Helpline: 0120-6546555