As expected... Agri commodity skyrocketed on fundamental concern. According to the Indian Meteorological Department report on Wednesday, India's rainfall was 14% lower than normal in the June-September monsoon season. The weather office had forecast a 12% rain deficit in the four-month long season. This would make the first drought for India in three decades, and only the fourth in more than a century. Scanty rains had a negative impact over the yields especially in Southern part of the country. Monsoon rains have been below average levels due to El Nino, which is a weather pattern caused by Pacific Ocean warming that can lead to droughts in South Asia. The rainfall deficit during the season was as high as 47%, in some regions, has created drinking water shortage problems.
Soyabean
SOPA presently expects lower production of soybean in the biggest producing state of India i.e. MP. According to SOPA estimate, the country might be able to produce 15% lesser crop than last year. MP’s production is currently estimated at 44 lakh tonnes while last year’s production was 51.60 lakh tonnes. Despite a higher sowing area versus last year, production in MP might drop year on year. SOPA officials have reported that the net cropped area last year was 55.46 lakh hectares and this year the area coverage had increased to 59.06 lakh hectares. However the yield per hectare was 930 kilos/ha as against this year’s expected yield of 784 kilos/ha. Due to this reason, net soybean output in MP is expected to drop in the 2015-16 season
Production estimated higher for Maharashtra and Rajasthan
SOPA is expecting higher production in Maharashtra and Rajasthan against last year. In 2014-15 production in Maharashtra was 24 lakh tonnes but this year SOPA is estimating a higher crop of 27.83 lakh tonnes. Rajasthan’s production on the other hand is estimated at 9.29 lakh tonnes. Last year’s production was 6.63 lakh tonnes in the state.
Production estimated lower in Andhra, Karnataka, other states
SOPA is estimating lower production in AP, Karnataka and other states. Soybean output in AP might be around 1.56 lakh tonnes and around 1.75 lakh tonnes according to SOPA. On the other hand production of Chhattisgarh is estimated to be 72800 tonnes. Last year, production in AP was 2.65 lakh tonnes, Karnataka 2.41 lakh ton and Chhattisgarh nearly 1.34 lakh tonnes.
National output estimated 4% lower
Due to lower production estimate for MP, India’s soybean might also be lower this year. According to the SOPA India’s output might be around 86.42 lakh tonnes, as against last year’s output of 90 lakh tonnes. So India’s soybean production is likely to decline by 4% year on year.
Told to buy Soyabean around 3380. It skyrocketed and made a high of 3554. Our target was 3530---3580
Now what to expect??? Today we will try to book full profit around 3580---3596 mark due to weekend. We will initiate fresh entry from Monday onward. Immediate support at 3380
Soyaref
Rally continues and made a high of 605.80. We recommended fresh buying above 600 and holding long from 576
Now what to expect???
Support at 598 and Resistance at 607 Two consecutive closes above 607 will see further upside rally till 613---618 and then to 625+ mark in days to come Revise stop loss of 598
Rmseed
Too spurts and made a high of 4529. We recommended buying above 4350 and holding long from 4280
Now what to expect???
Support at 4450 and Resistance at 4530---4580 Traders holding long as per our level can revise stop loss of 4450 on closing basis
Others can trade with levels only
Chana
Told to buy Chana above 4750 with stop loss of 4630. Flared like anything and made a high of 4969
Now what to expect???
We will book full profit in today's trading session due to weekend and staggered delivery option. Fresh entry will initiate from Monday onward
CPO
Support at 415 and Resistance at 424 Two consecutive closes above 424 will take to 435---441+ mark in days to come Fresh selling can initiate only close below 415 mark Trade with levels only
More will update soon...
