The USDA has lowered its forecasts for corn and soybean
production to 13.56 billion bushels and 3.89 bushel respectively. For corn,
USDA estimated the national average yield at 168 bushels per acre, which is
above previous month’s estimate by up 0.5 bushel per hectare. Harvested acreage
was reduced by about 500,000 acres to 80.7 ma, toward the low end of pre-report
estimates. Soybean yield has been put at 47.2 bushel per hectare, up 0.1 bushel
per hectare from last month. USDA has also lowered harvested acreage by 1.1
million acres to 82.4 ma. On the whole, USDA's ending stocks estimates were all
within the range of pre-report expectations. For Wheat, the production estimate
has been lowered by 84 mb to 2.052 bb.
CORN
The report conveyed that growers planted a total of 88.4
million acres of corn, but will only harvest 80.7 million acres for grain. USDA
current forecast estimate indicate that the corn will be the third largest on
record. Corn ending stocks for the 2015-16 marketing year are estimated at 1.561
bb, down 31 million bushels from last month's estimate. USDA did not make any
change in demand, and the drop is a result of the smaller production forecast.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio has been dropped slightly to 11.3%. The season
average farm price was expected to range from $3.50 to $4.10, also higher than
last month.
Globally, stocks were estimated at 187.83 million metric
tons, down 1.9 mmt from last month. USDA lowered beginning stocks by 1.2 mmt to
reflect higher feeding in the EU and Ukrainian exports. USDA lowered its
2015-16 production forecasts for Ukraine, Argentina, India, Philippines and
several sub-Saharan African countries. The global stocks-to-use ratio was
unchanged at 19.2%.
SOYBEANS
There were numerous changes to its soybean supply and demand
estimates for 2015-16. USDA incorporated the lower beginning stocks estimate
from the last Grain Stocks report and its lower production forecast, resulting
in a 66 mb decline in supplies. The crush forecast has been increased by 10 mb
and cut its forecast for exports by 50 mb. Some revisions has been incorporated
in its 2014-15 supply and demand estimates, including increasing soybean crush
by 30 mb and increasing exports by 18 mb. Ending stocks for 2015-16 declined by
25 mb to 425 mb, and the stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 11.5%. The national
average farm price range was left unchanged at $8.40 to $9.90.
Globally, USDA has given a slight increment of stocks to
85.14 mmt. USDA increased Brazilian 2015-16 soybean production to 100 mmt from
its previous estimate of 97 mmt. It also increased Brazil's production for
2014-15 to 96.2 mb. Global stocks-to-use was unchanged at 27.4%.
WHEAT
For Wheat, the production estimate has been lowered by 84 mb
to 2.052 bb. Feed and residual use declined 20 mb and exports dropped 50 mb,
resulting in a 14 mb decline in ending stocks. Ending stocks are forecast at
861 mb. The ending stocks-to-use ratio has been increased to 41.6%. The
national average farm gate price range was narrowed slightly, ranging from
$4.75 to $5.25. Global ending stocks has been increased by 1.93 mmt to 228.5
mmt in response to increased production and beginning stocks. Production in
Australia and Canada has been increased by 1 mmt and EU production by 1.1 mmt.
Global ending stocks-to-use increased to 31.9%.
Source - Markettimestv.com
