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Saturday, December 16, 2017
Friday, December 15, 2017
Current levels of Bullion, Base Metal and Energy for the day 15th December 2017
Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy Levels 15th December 2017
Gold futures ended slightly lower on Thursday, as dollar strengthened in response to stronger than expected US retail sales data. Further the yellow metal dipped as hike in interest rates reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Crude oil futures made some recovery on Thursday supported by ongoing pipeline shutdown and shrugged off data forecasting a faster than expected rise in US shale oil production next year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly oil market report, published on Thursday, revised upward its projection for US oil production. It raised US crude oil growth to 390,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year and 870,000 bpd for 2018. Non-OPEC output, led by the US, will rise by 630,000 bpd in 2017, followed by an increase of 1.6 million bpd during 2018.
Comex copper futures ended higher on Thursday. While London copper prices too hit a near two-week high on global growth hopes after upbeat manufacturing data from China, overlooking a stronger dollar and Beijing’s surprise interest rates hike. China’s industrial output expanded at a faster than expected pace in November as growth in the world’s top industrial metals consumer remains resilient, supported in part by a construction boom.
Technical Level
Gold
Support at 28200 and Hurdle at 28450
Break and sustain above 28450 will take it to 28650—28800++ mark else could touch its support level of 28200.
Fresh selling can be initiated above 28200
Silver
Support at 36900 and Resistance at 37250
Break and sustain above 37250 will take it to 37650—37800+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 36900 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated above 36900
Crude
Support at 3640 and Resistance 3680
Above 3680 rally remain continue 3750—3780++ mark else could touch its support level of 3640.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3640.
Natural Gas
Support at 171 and Resistance at 174.50
Above 174.50 rally remain continue till 178—180++ mark else could touch its support level of 171.00
Fresh selling can be initiated below 171
Copper
Support at 436 and Resistance at 441.00
Break and sustain above 441 will take it to 446—450++mark else could touch its support level of 436.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 436.00
Economic Data
07:00 P.M Empire State Manufacturing Index: Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.6%, Actual??
Increase in Empire State Manufacturing Index– positive impact on dollar Index and base metal or vice versa.
More will update soon!!!
Fresh levels of Major Agri Commodities for the day 15th December 2017
Agri Commodity Update (15th-Dec-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Cotton traded higher from last couple of days tracking lower arrivals and expectation of fall in domestic output due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Moreover, higher bonus given to Gujarat farmers also boosted the sentiment of prices. As per Cotton Corporation of India, cotton arrivals till 7th Dec across the states are pegged at 74 lakh bales. Maharashtra is leading with 15.4 lakh bales followed by Telangana and Gujarat at 14.9 lakh bales and 12.9 lakh bales respectively.
The USDA raised the US production number noted at 21.44 million bales, on a 2 lb increase in yield to 902 lbs/ac. The US ending stocks number was lowered 0.3 million bales, as exports were raised by that amount. The world ending stocks number was trimmed 2.88 million bales to 88 million bales. Production in India was noted down by 0.5 mt, as Pakistan it was down 0.95 mt.
Chana prices traded below MSP from past couple of days due to weak physical demand, improved sowing progress and higher stocks in the country due to record imports. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was noted up 10.25% on year at 89.6 lakh ha as on last week. The NCDEX have imposed a special margin of 5% on the sell side in all running contract and yet to be launched chana contracts seems unable to support its prices.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Our buy call from 7400—7584 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 7350 and Resistance is 7650.
Rally likely to continue till 7650.Break and sustain above 7650 will take it towards 7740—7850 and then 8000++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen only close below 7350 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21300 and Resistance is at 22050.
Looks weak on Chart. Break and sustain below 21300 will take it towards 20800—20550 and then 20300 mark in near term.
Fresh Buying can be seen on close above 22050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4450 and Resistance at 4560.
Looks weak on chart. Sell on every rise till 4560.Break and sustain below 4450 will take it towards 4410—4360 and then 4250 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4560 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Support is at 3800 and Resistance is 3920.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 3800 .Break and sustain below 3800 will take it towards 3750—3720 and then 3650 mark in near term else could touch its resistance of 3920 mark.
Hurdle and stop loss will remain at 3920 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call from 4480—3892 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 3850 and Resistance is 4050.
Panic likely to continue till 3850. Break and sustain below 3850 will take it towards 3780—3730 and then 3650 mark in near term. Hurdle will remain at 4050.
Take cautionary approach at lower levels.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3950 and resistance is at 4050.
Looks weak on chart. Sell on every rise till 4050 and likely to touch 3950. Break and close below 3950 will take it towards 3880—3830 and then 3750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2980 and Resistance is 3080
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 2980. Break and sustain below 2980 will take it towards 2930—2880 and then 2820 mark in coming days.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3080 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 553 while Resistance is 565.
Looks positive on chart. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to touch 565 soon. Break and sustain above 565 will see a new bullish era in the near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at below 553 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
Currency Report of 15th December 2017
Currency Report 15th December 2017
After a two-day fall, Indian rupee gained ground against dollar and ended higher on Thursday, due to selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Local currency got some support with a private report stating that India’s economic growth has bottomed out and the GDP growth will recover further to 7% over the next few quarters. Besides, gains in the domestic equity markets also influenced the rupee sentiment. However, the rupee gains, to some extent, were capped with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showing that India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to 1.2% of GDP or $7.2 billion in July-September, from 0.6% of GDP or $3.4 billion reported in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened to $32.8 billion in the previous quarter from $25.6 billion a year ago.
On the global front, dollar held at more than one-week lows on Thursday after the US central bank kept its economic forecasts unchanged with investors expecting more losses if the European Central Bank outlines a more optimistic outlook on the economy.
USDINR
Support at 64.20 and Resistance at 64.50
Break and sustain below 64.20 will take it to 63.95—63.70 mark else could touch its resistance level of 64.50.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.50
Trade with levels only.
GBPINR
Support at 86.30 and Resistance at 86.75
Break and sustain below 86.30 will take it to 86.00—85.80 mark else could touch its resistance level of 86.75 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 86.75
EURINR
Support at 75.70 and Resistance 76.10
Break and sustain below 75.70 will take it to 75.45—75.30 mark else could touch its resistance level of 76.10 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 76.10
JPYINR
Above 57.30 rally remain continue till 57.50—57.80+++ mark, else could touch its support level of 56.90.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 56.90
More will update soon!!!
Agro Commodity Update (2nd Feb-2018)
Agro Commodity Update (2nd Feb-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
The Union government has decided to increase the minimum support price for crops this Rabi season to 1.5 times of production costs to help the farmers produce more from the same land at a lesser cost, and get a better price. The MSP will cover all crops. Declaring that the focus is on strengthening agriculture and rural economy. Mr. Jaitley (FM) announced a Rs. 2,000-crore fund for development of agri-markets. He doubled the allocation for Agriculture Ministry to Rs 1,400 crore in FY2018-19. Apart from this, Operation Green will be launched for agriculture and allocated Rs. 500 crores for it along with proposed to raise institutional credit for agriculture to Rs.11 lakh crore for 2018-19.
Chana Mar futures traded marginally higher on fresh buying activity noticed in the physical market from lower levels. Still prices trading below its minimum support prices. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 7.9% on year at 106.2 lakh ha as on last week. Moreover, higher imports during the current financial year too pressurize prices. India imported about 5.84 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr-Oct, up by 430% compared the last year imports. The imports were mostly done from Australia.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Feb)
Support is at 4550 and Resistance is 4700.
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain above 4700 will take it towards 4780—4850++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3750 and Resistance is 3850
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3750 mark. Break and close below 3750 will take it to 3680—3600 and then 3550 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Three black crows formation (Bearish)
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 4100 and resistance is at 4180.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 4100 will take it towards 4020—3950 and then 3800 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4180 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3550 and Resistance is 3800.
Break and close below 3550 will take it to 3470—3400 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3800.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3800 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 4200 and Resistance at 4350
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4200 will take it to 4120—4050 and then 3900 mark .
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 4350 mark .
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (Feb)
Support is 19950 and Resistance is 20450.
Break and sustain above 20450 will take it to 20600—20850 and then 21100++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 19950.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 19950 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16300 and Resistance is at 16700.
Buy and accumulate. Break and sustain above 16700 will see sharp upside rally towards 16980—17250 and then 17600++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 16300 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7100 while Resistance is 7300.
Looks weak on chart. Break and sustain below 7100 will take it towards 6950—6800 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7300.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Support seen at 562 while Resistance is 575.
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain 575 will take it towards 582—594 and then 608 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 562 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
Morning News Headlines
Morning News Headlines
Economic Times
● Govt aims to make India $1 trillion digital economy
● Flipkart India post 19% increase in turnover
● Vedanta rejigs cairn top deck, plans $1 bn investment
● Airtel Bank A/C swell 3.5 times in 3 months with DBT credits
● Telecom firms dip into parents' pockets for debt bailout
Business Standard
● $2- bn tax dispute: SC allows Vodafone to hire chairman for 2nd arbitration
● Nov WPI inflation jumps to 3.93% on high onion, veggie prices
● General Electric ties up with Tatas for jet engine, defence
● HDFC invokes nearly 82 mn pledged Unitech shares
● Strengthening banks the next big reform: Arun Jaitley
Mint
● Exit polls project a BJP win in Gujrat, Himachal Pradesh
● HomeLane raises $10 million from Accel partners, others
● SEBI and RBI in talks on giving a boost to interest rate futures
● Delinquencies in loan against property to rise 70 bps to 3.3% in fiscal: Crisil
● Tata Communications board approves demerger of surplus land via HPIL
Money Control
● HDFC Bank to consider share sale to HDFC, raising funds via QIP
● PNB, Union Bank raise Rs 7,000 Cr via QIP
● SEBI relooking at making details disclosures mandatory: Ajay Tyagi
● Natco Pharma raises Rs 915 Crore via QIP
● Credit Suisse sees India's macroeconomic visibility improving in 2018
Sources : Economic Times, Business Standard, Mint & Money Control.
