Update on Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 13th Dec 2017
Nifty 10240 /Sensex 32597/ Bank Nifty 24851
12 Advances / 38 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Benchmarks end lower ahead of IIP, CPI data
Tuesday turned out to be a dismal day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with frontline gauges breaching their crucial 10,250 (Nifty) and 33,300 (Sensex) levels, as traders opted to book profit after three day of continuous rally. After a feeble opening, markets never looked confidant and extended their southward journey to at day’s lows, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for October and inflation data based on consumer price index (CPI) for November to be released later in the day. A private poll showed that India’s retail inflation likely breached the central bank’s 4% medium-term target in November after unseasonably heavy rains sent food prices soaring. The poll enlightened that the higher inflation rate is unlikely to push the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its key rate any time soon. Traders failed to get any sense of relief with the UN DESA's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018 report, which said that despite a slowdown observed in early 2017, the outlook for India remains positive, underpinned by strong private consumption, robust public investments and structural reforms.
Selling got accelerated in second half of trade, as traders failed to hold their nerves. Sentiments remained pessimistic with report that foreign investors offloaded shares worth of over Rs 4,000 crore from domestic equity markets this month so far on account of rising crude prices and widening fiscal deficit. Investors took note of ASSOCHAM report enlightening that the government needs to accord top priority to agriculture in the budget as a major shortfall in kharif production resulted in sluggish growth of farm sector in the second quarter this fiscal. While the year-to-year agriculture Gross Value Addition (GVA) growth for the July-September quarter of 2017-18 dropped to 1.7% from 4.1%, measured on basic prices, the fall looks quite sharp at current prices from 10% to 3.7%. Meanwhile, with the farm loan waiver pitch getting shriller by the day, former RBI governor Y V Reddy has said that the practice is not good for economic or credit culture and insisted that ultimately it is a political decision and cannot be justified in the longer run.
On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in green in early deals with private report stating that almost nine out of ten of countries saw positive annual price growth in the third quarter, while Europe recorded a rise of 5.6% to September. Asian markets ended mostly in red as investors booked some profits after several days of advances.
Back home, oil marketing companies viz. Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and aviation companies like Jet Airways, SpiceJet and Interglobe Aviation closed in red following sharp rise in crude oil prices in international market. Brent crude oil prices were near 2015 highs after the unplanned closure of a major North Sea pipeline for repairs, knocking out significant supplies from a market that was already tightening due to OPEC-led production cuts. Paper stocks exhibited mixed performance on expectation of robust growth demand. As per the reports, experts estimate 12% and four to five per cent growth in demand for packaging and writing & printing paper, respectively, next year. Writing & printing paper continues to face margin pressure in cheaper shipments from Southeast Asia.
FII’s Activity 12th-Dec-17
The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4897.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 5033.63 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 136.21 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1457.24 crore with gross sales of Rs 776.66 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 680.58 crore in debt.
November inflation at 4.88 per cent crossing RBI's median mark, industrial output slowed down
According to the data from the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, October's consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose during the month to 4.88 per cent from 3.58 per cent reported for October.
November inflation at 4.88 per cent crossing RBI's median mark, industrial output slowed down
A sharp increase in food and fuel prices pushed India's annual retail inflation in November over the RBI's median level of 4 per cent mark.
A sharp spurt in food and fuel prices pushed India's annual retail inflation in November over the RBI's median level of 4 per cent mark, official data showed on Tuesday.
According to the data from the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, October's consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose during the month to 4.88 per cent from 3.58 per cent reported for October.
Amidst the increasing inflation, India's industrial output has slowed down. The factory output rose just 2.2 per cent in October from 4.14 per cent in September, official data showed on Tuesday.
"The general index for the month of October 2017 stands at 123, which is 2.2 per cent higher as compared to the level in the month of October 2016. The cumulative growth for the period April-October 2017 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 2.5 per cent," the "Quick Estimates" of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) said.
As per the IIP data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the slowdown on was mainly on account of deceleration in manufacturing and mining outputs.
(India today)
Stock of external debt falls after years
India’s stock of external debt declined for the first-time since 2001-02, to $471.9 billion at the end of March 2017, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s December 2017 Bulletin.
The country’s external debt (medium to long-term) declined to 20.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of March 2017, from 23.5 per cent at the end of March 2016. In March 1991, external debt was 28.7 per cent of GDP. (BS)
Now what to expect ??
Nifty Levels
Above 10370 will see rally till 10430. Two consecutive close above 10370 will take to 10600---10700+++ mark in days to come else it could test it's support again.
Support intact at 10200---10050
Daily Derivative Outlook 13th December 2017
• Nifty (Dec) futures closed at a premium of 24.35 points versus a premium of 24.15 points.
• Maximum call writing was seen at Nifty 10400 strike and Maximum Put buying was seen at Nifty 10200 strikes.
• Maximum positions are at 10500 CE and 10000 PE.
• OIL (17%), HEXAWARE (14%), HEROMOTOCO (11%), NIITTECH (8%) and PFC (7%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.
• PIDILITIND (-11%), PCJEWELLER (-9%), SRF (-8%), SUNTV (-8%) and HAVELLS (-7%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.
• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 1.29, Advance (35) + Decline (181) + Unchanged (1) = 217
Derivative Idea (13-12-2017)
Bank of India gain around 3.00% of open interest as short build up Tuesday’s trade. Bank of India formed Squat bar on daily chart while it is trading below 21 DEMA which indicate momentum is downward.
Now what to expect??
Below 179, panic remain continue till 174—170 and then to 165 mark.
Hurdle at 184.00
Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.
Trading Recommendation (13th Dec 2017)
Sell Bank of India below 179 with stop loss of 184 for the initial target 174—170 and then to 165 mark.
More Will Update Soon!!
