Currency Report 1st Aug 2017

Rupee ends little change against dollar on Monday

Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against the US dollar on Monday, following fresh demand for the US currency from banks and importers to meet the month end dollar demand. Traders maintained cautious approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's bi-monthly policy on August 02. However, the dollar’s slide overseas amid concerns over renewed show of strength on the Korean Peninsula and a strong domestic equity market restricted the rupee's losses. On the global front, dollar held near a 13-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday, weighed down by political uncertainty and increased short positions, but markets were wary of pushing it lower before data due later this week.

USDINR

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.60

Break and sustain below 64.30 will take it to 64.10—63.90 and then to 63.70 mark else could touch its resistance level of 64.60 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.60

GBPINR

Yesterday we clearly indicated looks positive above 84.50 just made high of 85.10

Now what to expect??

Break and sustain above 85.10 will take it to 85.40—85.60 ++ mark.

Support intact at 84.70

EURINR

Support at 75.70 Resistance at 76.20

Break and sustain above 76.20 will take it to 76.50—76.80++ mark else could touch its support level of 75.70 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 75.70

JPYINR

Support at 58.10 and Resistance at 58.50

Close above 58.50 will take it to 58.70—58.90++ mark else could touch its support level of 58.10 mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 58.10

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 1st Aug 2017

Nifty 10,077 /Sensex 32,309/ Bank Nifty 25103

32 Advances / 19 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Markets hit fresh record closing highs on RBI rate cut hopes

Indian equity benchmarks ended the splendid performance with a gain of over half a percent on Monday, settling at fresh all time closing high levels. Key gauges traded firmly throughout the session and ended above their crucial 10,050 (Nifty) and 32,500 (Sensex) levels amid rate cut optimism. Market participants expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates by 25 bps on falling inflation in the coming policy meet, which will start tomorrow. Meanwhile, ahead of the next monetary policy review, Reserve Bank Governor Urjit Patel on Friday called on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and is believed to have discussed various macro-economic issues. Traders also took some encouragement with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement, who underlining the government’s push on reforms has said that in the last three years, the prime minister has been forcing one or two important changes. India has to become a country where it is easy to do business and the businesses are done in the most ethical way.

Adding to the optimism, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the success of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and said it has transformed the economy. Terming the GST as pro-poor and an example of cooperative federalism, he said the government’s effort is to ensure there is no extra burden on the poor. Markets extended their northward journey in second half as market participants got some boost on report that India’s exports of engineering goods to China saw a whopping 123 percent growth at $629 million during April-June this fiscal, driven by an upsurge in shipments of non-ferrous metals. The country’s shipments to China stood at $282 million in the April-June quarter of the previous fiscal.

Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments, as Chinese manufacturing data boosted miners and investors focused on positive earnings news from Europe’s largest bank, HSBC. Asian markets closed mixed, as investors turned their attention to a raft of global economic data and earnings this week.

Back home, some support came with Moody’s report that India’s GDP growth will remain in the range of 6.5-7.5% over the next 12-18 months and GST will support the momentum for faster growth. Besides, global brokerage firm lowered its inflation forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 3.6% earlier citing relatively benign outcomes of GST and monsoon. It, however, said headline inflation troughed in June and the trajectory is still that of a gradual rise in headline inflation.

FII’s Activity 31-July-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5204.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 5216.26 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 11.45 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1316.94 crore with gross sales of Rs 275.08 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1041.86 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9950 and Resistance at 10200

Above 10080 will see rally till 10130---10200 mark else it could test its support level of 9950 again.

Trade with levels only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 24700 and resistance at 25150

Close above 25150 will take to 25350---26200+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24700 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 1 August

•Nifty (Aug) futures closed at a Premium of 25.90 points versus a premium of 27.75 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10400 strike, and maximum put writing was seen at 10000 strike.

• Maximum positions are at 10500 CE and 10000 PE. Nifty expected trading range spread to 10500—10000.

• TORNTPHARM (44%), LICHSGFIN (37%), POWERGRID (25%), INFRATEL (22%) and SINTEX (20%) were the top gainers in open interest in the Market.

• L&TFH (-9%), BEL (-8%), JSWSENERGY (-8%), LT (-5%) and ONGC (-5%) were the top losers of open interest in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.07.

• Advance Decline ratio in f&O segment was at 1.48, Advance (129) + Decline (87)+ Unchanged (3) = 219 

Derivative Idea (01-08-2017)

Bank of Baroda losses around 2.0% of open interest as short Unwinding on Monday’s trade.

On Daily charts, Bank of Baroda has support 160 and resistance at 168, Break and sustain above 168 will take it to 175--178 and then to 182++ mark. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Bank of Baroda (AUG) Future above 168 Stop loss 160 Target 175--178 and then 182++

Corporate Action

Adani Power Limited-Annual General Meeting

Results Today

JSW Steel Limited

Torrent Power Limited

Power Grid Corporation

 of India Limited

Piramal Enterprises Limited

Reliance Defence and Engineering Limited

PC Jeweller Limited

Marico Limited

More Will Update Soon!!

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Commodity Alert :Govt ups base import price of gold by $15/10 gm, silver by $20/kg

• Govt ups gold base import price to $411/10 gm from $396/10 gm.

• Govt ups silver base import price to $538/kg from $518/kg.

The government today increased the base import price of gold by $15 to $411 per 10 gm and that of silver by $20 to $538 a kg, according to a notice from the Central Board of Excise and Customs. Base import prices were last revised on Jul 14.Typically revised every fortnight, base import prices are used to

Calculate duty on gold and silver brought into the country by individuals who often do not carry purchase invoices. Since Jul 14, prices of gold and silver in global markets have increased 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.    Currently, India levies 10% import duty on gold.

Source : newswire

More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert : Source says govt considering hike in import duty of soyoil

Government is considering increasing import duty on soy oil to restrict the fall in domestic prices. Imports of refined edible soft oils and crude edible soft oils attract 20% and 12.5% duties, respectively. “Final decision on it would be taken by the committee headed by the Cabinet Secretary soon. An inter-ministerial committee headed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had met on Thursday to discuss ways to curb rising imports of edible oils, especially palm oils, soyoil and coconut oil, the official said. Weak prices in soybean due to bumper crop last year has been discouraging farmers to sow more of the oilseed in the ongoing kharif season, traders said. Some farmers in key growing areas are switching to other lucrative crops which resulted in a steep fall in the acreage so far this season 2017-18 (Jul-Jun).India is the largest importer of edible oils in the world. Palm oil accounts for more than 60% of the total imports of edible oils in the country while soy oil is the largest imported soft oils

(Impact: A hike in duty on imports of edible oils will make the imports costlier and provide a level playing field to the growers and refiners.)

Source : Newswire

   More will update soon!!

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Source says govt may lift ban on export of pulses to support prices

The government is planning to lift a decade-long ban on export of pulses in order to address the glut and support prices in the domestic market, a government official said. “The matter is being considered for a while... It was discussed in the four-five meetings in the last two weeks. Meetings were attended by representatives from the commerce, finance, agriculture and food ministries, the official said. Other options such as an import duty structure for pulses were also discussed to address the glut in the domestic market, which have dragged prices below the minimum support level since the beginning of 2017, the official added

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Crop Report: India soybean area 9.6 mln ha as of Thu, dn 10.3% on yr

Soybean acreage across the country was at 9.56 mln ha as of Thursday, down 10.3% on year, latest data from the agriculture ministry showed. Typically, the average area as of Jul 27, based on the past three years' data, is at 10.32 mln ha. Farmers had sown nearly 10.67 mln ha of soybean a year ago.    The sowing season starts from the beginning of June and continues till July end. Sowing of soybean fell so far during the period due to a drop in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the country's largest producer of soybean, as most farmers shifted to more profitable crops such as cotton due to poor returns from oilseeds last year. In Madhya Pradesh, the acreage of the crop was at 4.56 mln ha, down from 5.20 mln ha in the previous year, the data showed. Good monsoon rains in the state during the past few days, however, prevented any further fall in acreage. The southwest monsoon, which hit the state almost a week later than the normal onset date of Jun 15, remained stalled for a long time. However, intensity of rainfall in the state picked up around Jun 15, and the state recorded 389.2 mm rainfall till Jul 31, data from the India Meteorological Department showed. In Rajasthan, another major grower of the oilseed, soybean was sown across 897,300 ha, as against 1.02 mln ha a year ago. Farmers in Maharashtra planted soybean across 3.40 mln ha, down from 3.48 mln ha on year, the data showed.

     Source : Newswire

              

   More will update soon!!

         

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Commodity Alert: China Jan-Jun gold demand 545.23 tn, up 10% on year

China's physical gold demand rose nearly 10% on year to 545.23 tn in Jan-Jun, media reports quoted the China Gold Association. Investors opted for the safe-haven asset on worries about fragile global financial markets and rising geopolitical uncertainties. Demand for gold bars in the world's largest gold consuming country surged 51% to 158.40 tn while jewellery consumption fell 0.3% to 330.77 tn in the first half of the year. China’s gold imports via Hong Kong, its main conduit, rose to 70.16 tn in June from 45.03 tn in May.

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (31-July-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean August futures closed higher last week on reports of lower sowing compared to the last year. However, the prices are still trading in a range due to good stocks and steady demand. As per the latest government report, soybean planting fell 10.3% to 95.7 lakh hectares as compared with the same period last year. Last year, the acreage was 106.7 lakh hectares. The area under the crop fell as some farmers are shifting to more profitable crops such as cotton, as oilseeds fetched poor returns last season. In Madhya Pradesh, the acreage of the crop was at 40.1 lakh ha, down from 49.7 lakh ha in the previous year. In Rajasthan, another major grower of the oilseed, soybean was sown across 786,800 ha, as against 10.2 lakh ha in the year-ago period. 

Jeera future closed lower last week on profit booking due to weak physical demand at higher prices. However, market participants initiated fresh buying in the previous trading session amid improving physical demand on reports of lower arrivals in Gujarat marked due to heavy rains. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during the month of July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival report. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. In line, jeera exports in April 2017 was reported at 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt.

Turmeric futures closed higher last week on reports of deficient rains during 20-26th July in Telangana. As per the IMD’s latest report, Telangana received only 9.2 mm rains which is 85% below normal. Moreover, dry condition and slow sowing progress is supporting prices. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 29-Jul-17, up 2.5% to 39,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 40,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 34% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 18,167 tonnes arrived in July compared to 27,574 tonnes in previous fortnight. Turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period (GOI).

MCX Cotton traded moderately higher as market participants initiated fresh buying on concern about excess rains in cotton growing areas in Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 104.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 86.6 lakh ha for same period.

Technical Aspect

Jeera (Aug) 

 

Support at 19000 and Resistance at 19700.

Looks positive and likely to touch 19700. Break and sustain above 19700 will fuel more power in it till 19950---20250++ mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 19000.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 19000.

Trade with levels only.

Castor Seed (Aug)

Support at 4440 and Resistance at 4550.

Break and sustain above 4550 with volume will take it to 4600---4640++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 4440.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4440 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric (Aug)

Last week we clearly indicated that if prices unable to hold below 6750 then there is a chance of bottom out in it.

Look what happen to it... Skyrocketed and made a fresh high of 7532 today.

 Now Support seen at 7350 and Resistance is 7550.

We will maintain our bullish in it. Break and sustain above 7550 will take it to 7660---7740++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 7350.

Fresh selling can be seen below 7350.

Guar seed (Oct)

Our buy call from 3450 to 3600 proven great and made a high of 3629 today.

Now what to expect??

Support at 3550 and Resistance at 3640.

We will maintain our bullish view in it. Break and sustain above 3640 with volume will take it to 3690---3730++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3550.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550 only.

Trade with levels only.

Soya bean (Aug)

Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3080.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 3000 for the upside level of 3080---3130 and then 3200++ mark.

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref (Aug)

Support at 640 and resistance is 652.

Will accumulate the fresh position on every decline till 640 which will take it to 652---657++mark in near term.

Fresh selling can be seen below 640.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.

Now what to expect?

Can accumulate more buy on decline near 4900---4880 which will take it to 5120---5200 mark else could touch its support level of 4800.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800. 

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3640 and resistance seen at 3725.

Break and sustain above 3725 will take it to 3780---3820 and then 3870++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3640.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3640.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (Aug)

Support is 1065 and Resistance is 1100.

Break and sustain above 1100 will take it to 1114---1135++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1065.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1065 mark.

Trade with levels only.

  More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 31th July 2017

Rupee ends weaker on month end dollar demand

Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against dollar on Friday, due to month-end dollar demand from importers and banks. Also, a weak domestic equity market weighed on the rupee. Traders maintained cautious approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s two-day monetary policy meeting, which is set to begin next week on Tuesday, while the outcome is expected on Wednesday. However, losses remained capped as some support came with report from the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which said that monsoon has strengthened over north central India in the last 15 years, indicating a reversal in the general perception that the region has dried up in over a decade. On the global front, dollar dipped against its major peers on Friday ahead of an update on the broadest measure of the US economy-a GDP report that could help shape the Federal Reserve’s so far slow-moving approach to interest rates.

USDINR July

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.60

Break and sustain below 64.30 will take it to 64.10—63.90 and then to 63.70 mark else could touch its resistance level of 64.60 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.60

GBPINR

Support at 84.10 and Resistance at 84.50

Break and sustain above 84.50 will take it to 84.80—85.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 84.10

Fresh selling can be initiated below 84.10

EURINR

Support at 75.20 Resistance at 75.55

Break and sustain above 75.55 will take it to 75.80—76.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 75.40 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 75.20

JPYINR

Support at 57.80 and Resistance at 58.20

Close above 58.20 will take it to 58.50—58.70++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.80 mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.80

More will update soon!!

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