Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 31st July 2017

Nifty 10,014 /Sensex 32,309/ Bank Nifty 24811

22 Advances / 29 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Markets start new F&O series on pessimistic note; Nifty holds 10k mark

Recovery in last leg of trade helped Indian equity benchmarks to pare most of their early losses, but was not enough to pull indices into green terrain on Friday. Markets went home with modest cut, as traders opted to book profit ahead of Reserve Bank of India’s two-day monetary policy meeting, which is set to begin next week on August 1. Domestic bourses made a weak start to the new F&O series with both Nifty and Sensex declining below their crucial 10,000 and 32,300 levels respectively. Traders remained concerned with banking major ICICI reporting an eight percent fall in first quarter profit from a year earlier to Rs 2,049 crore, though the bank said it was optimistic about containing its bad loans after the three months to June saw the smallest rise in soured assets for seven quarters. Markets extended sell-off in afternoon trade and even went to test crucial 9,950 (Nifty) and 32,100 (Sensex) levels, as some anxiety spread among the investors with Niti Aayog chief Amitabh Kant’s statement that the government needs to adopt the model of build, operate and transfer (BOT) for infrastructure projects. These projects then should be given to private companies as the government is incapable of handling the maintenance and operations of such projects.

However, the key gauges got some support near those intraday low levels as they trim most of their losses from thereon and ended above their crucial 10,000 (Nifty) and 32,300 (Sensex) levels, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Traders got some support with report from the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which said that monsoon has strengthened over north central India in the last 15 years, indicating a reversal in the general perception that the region has dried up in over a decade. Traders also get some solace after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) ratings in its latest report said that the credit quality of top corporates which is on the path of recovery is likely to improve over the next two years and will lead to revenue growth.

On the global front, European markets were trading in red in early deals, as fresh political tensions in Washington dampened market sentiment. Euro zone economic sentiments rose slightly for a third consecutive month in July to a new 10-year high, against expectations of a dip from June. Asian markets ended mostly in red, as investors looked ahead to more corporate earnings and were cautious on the dollar.

Back home, gems and jewellery stocks remained on buyers’ radar, as the government expects export growth of six per cent a year for the industry, which is going to be the new normal. Gems and jewellery net exports declined in FY’16 to $32 billion, as compared to $36.2 billion the previous year. Meanwhile, Dr Reddy’s Lab extended fall to the second straight day after the Mumbai-based pharma company reported disappointing earnings for the June quarter. Biocon fell by over two percent after its consolidated net profit fell 51.2% year-on-year to Rs 81.3 crore in the quarter ended June, missing estimates, mainly due to weakening of the US dollar and destocking ahead of implementation of goods and services tax (GST).

FII’s Activity 28-July-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9743.08 crore against gross selling of Rs 7303.92 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 2439.16 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1748.08 crore with gross sales of Rs 973.82 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 774.26 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9950 and Resistance at 10200

Above 10070 will see rally till 10130---10200 mark else it could test its support level of 9950 again.

Trade with levels only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 24600 and resistance at 24800

Close above 24800 will take to 25050---26200+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24600 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 31th July

•Nifty (Aug) futures closed at a Premium of 27.75 points versus a premium of 42.90 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10500 strike, and maximum put writing was seen at 9700 strike.

• Maximum positions are at 10500 CE and 9800 PE. Nifty expected trading range spread to 10500--9800

• MGL (35%), INFIBEAM (32%), REPCOHOME (28%), LT (28%) and LICHSGFIN (25%) were the top gainers in open interest in the market

• CANBK (-9%), CUMMINSIND (-5%), HDFCBANK (-5%), BANKINDIA (-4%) and PNB (-4%) were the top losers in open interest in the market

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 0.99.

• Advance Decline ratio in f&O segment was at 1.33, Advance (124) + Decline (93)+ Unchanged (2) = 219 

Derivative Idea (31-07-2017)

Reliance Capital gain around 17.8% of open interest as long buidlup on Friday’s trade.

On Daily charts, Reliance Capital has given fresh break out above 695 level. Reliance Capital has support 695 and resistance at 725, Break and sustain above 725 will take it to 750-780 and then to 800++ mark. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Reliance Capital (AUG) Future above 725 Stop loss 695 Target 750--780 and then 800++

Top Pick 31st July

EID Parry

Above 330 will see upside rally till 344--350++ mark in days to come.

Looks bearish only if close below 316 any sharp downside fall will be buying opportunity in it.

Corporate Action

Eicher Motors Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 100/- Per Share

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited-Annual General Meeting

Tata Chemicals Limited-Annual General Meeting/ Dividend -Rs 11/- Per Share

Adani Ports And Special Economic Zone Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.30 Per Share

Adani Enterprises Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.40 Per Share

Results Today

Balrampur Chini Mills Limited

V-Guard Industries Limited

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited

Tech Mahindra Limited

Sintex Industries Limited

Siemens Limited

Shree Cements Limited

UPL Limited

Shriram Transport Finance Company Limited

Reliance Power Limited

Hexaware Technologies Limited

InterGlobe Aviation Limited

Godrej Consumer Products Limited

Container Corporation of India Limited

Bharat Electronics Limited

More Will Update Soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 28th July 17

Gold futures ended higher on Thursday, as a Federal Reserve policy update that was read as mostly dovish by investors, helped to lift prices to their highest finish since mid-June. Though, some gains were capped as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies after data showed shipments of key US-made capital goods increased in June for a fifth straight month.  

Crude oil futures extended their northward march on Thursday near $50 a barrel, powered by hopes that OPEC can re-balance the global oil market. Investors continued to cheer signs that rising demand will offset excess supplies in the second half of the year amid a larger-than-expected draw in US supplies. News that Saudi Arabia plans to lower crude exports to 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, almost 1 million bpd below the level last year, kept the spirit high for the traders.

Copper futures ended marginally higher on Thursday amid talk China may ban imports of some scrap metal, including copper, from the end of 2018, which may lead to higher refined copper imports into the world's largest consumer of the metal.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28350 and Resistance at 28500

Break and sustain below 28350 will take it to 28280—28225 mark else could touch its resistance level of 28500

Trade with levels only

Silver

Support at 38100 and Resistance at 38700

Break and sustain below 38100 will take it to 37650—37450 mark else could touch its resistance level of 38700 mark. 

Fresh buying can be initiated above 38700

Crude

Hurdle at 3170, Break and sustain above 3170 will take it to 3200—3230++ mark else could touch its support level of 3130.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3130

Natural Gas 

Support 189 and Resistance 192.50

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 192.50. Above 192.50 will see more upside rally till 194—196+++ mark else could touch its support level of 189.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 189

Copper 

Support at 403.50 and Resistance at 409---415

Break and sustain below 403.50 will take it to 400—398 and then to 395 mark else could touch its resistance level of 409---415 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 415

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Advance GDP q/q:  Previous 1.4% Forecast 2.5% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Advance GDP q/q– will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Advance GDP Price Index q/q:  Previous 1.9% Forecast 1.3% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Advance GDP Price Index q/q – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

  More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: MCX cotton down on report of higher imports from US

 The October cotton contract on MCX was down over 1% due to a rise in imports from the US. Thursday, the USDA's weekly export sales data for the week ended Jul 20 showed that cotton exports to India have increased significantly. The contracts had gained in the last four trading sessions due to news of crop damage on the back of heavy rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan, among the leading producers.

Source: Newswire

   More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX guar gum up 1% on crop damage concerns

Futures contracts of guar gum rose nearly 1% on NCDEX today due to concerns over crop damage because of recent heavy rains in west Rajasthan. Jodhpur, Barmer and Bikaner, the major guar-growing districts in west Rajasthan, have received heavy rains of late. In the week-ended Wednesday,the region received 103% above normal rains at 238.8 mm, according to data from India Meteorological Department. The recent rise in crude oil prices also supported contracts of guar gum. The commodity is used as a fracking agent in the exploration of crude oil.

Source : Newswire

   More will update soon!!

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Monsoon Alert: Heavy rains likely in Maharashtra, Gujarat today

                        

Heavy rains are likely over some parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat in the next six-to-eight hours, private weather forecaster Skymet said in an update.  Ahmednagar, Dhule, Nashik and Thane in Maharashtra, and Valsad, Navsari and Dang in Gujarat are likely to receive the rains. Key kharif crops such as cotton, soybean, maize and tur are grown in the two states.

        Source : Newswire

                        

   More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick – CESC

Technical Pick – CESC

• CESC is finding support at 890 and resistance above 925.

•  On Daily chart, CESC is showing breakout point above 925. Break and sustain above 925 will see nonstop rally in CESC till 960--975++ in days to come.

• As CESC is approaching its breakout level, its volume is also increasing which gives strength to the breakout and increases its reliability.

• Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 960--975+++mark in coming days. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 890 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms. 

Trading Recommendation

Buy CESC above 925 for the initial upside target of 960—975++ mark with stop loss below 890 on closing basis.               

More will update soon !!!!!

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Technical Pick – State Bank of India

Technical Pick – State Bank of India

• State Bank of India is finding support at 285 and resistance above 300. 

•On Daily chart, SBI is showing breakout point above 300.Break and sustain above 300 will see nonstop rally in SBI till 314--325++ in weeks to come.

• State Bank of India has been trading in a broader range of 223--315 for last one year.

• Daily 14 period RSI has turned up from near levels. As per the bullish high low theory of 40-70 levels, the daily RSI is expected to move up to 70- 75 levels from the current reading of 66. This could mean Continuation of upside momentum in the stock price ahead possibly a breakout also this time.

• Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 314--325+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 285 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms. 

Trading Recommendation

Buy SBI above 300 and for the initial upside target of 314—325++ mark with stop loss below 285 on closing basis.   

              More will update soon!!                     

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Currency Report 28th July 2017

Rupee ends near 10-week high against US dollar

Indian rupee ended at near 10-week high against US dollar on Thursday, taking its winning streak for second straight session on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained up-beat with news that retirement fund body the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation is planning to pump in Rs 22,500 crore in exchange traded funds in 2017-18 following approval from the central board of trustees to increase the equity investment from 10 percent to 15 percent. The rupee sentiment was also boosted as dollar weakened against some currencies overseas along with positive gains in the local equity markets. On the global front, yen rose against dollar after the Federal Reserve policy statement highlighted a tepid inflation outlook fuelling speculation that it is unlikely to hike rates in September.

USDINR

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.50

Break and sustain below 64.30 will take it to 64.08—63.80 mark else could touch its resistance level of 64.50 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.50

GBPINR

Support at 84.00 and Resistance at 84.55

Break and sustain above 84.55 will take it to 84.80—85.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 84.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 84.00

EURINR

Support at 75.20 Resistance at 75.50

Break and sustain above 75.50 will take it to 75.80—76.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 74.80 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 75.20

JPYINR

Support at 57.80 and Resistance at 58.20

Close above 58.20 will take it to 58.50—58.70++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.80 mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.80

More will update soon!!

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