Monsoon Alert: IMD sees heavy rain in parts of central India till Thu

                       

Heavy rains are expected in parts of central India until Thursday, IMD said in a weather update. Heavy rainfall is "very likely" in parts of east Madhya Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday, the weather bureau said. Parts of Chhattisgarh may receive heavy rains today and on Thursday, it said adding that the subdivision is likely to get heavy-to-very rainfall on Wednesday.    The east Madhya Pradesh subdivision has so far received 427.0 mm rains, 7% above normal, while Chhattisgarh has recorded 503.2 mm rains, 5% above normal, data from IMD's hydromet division said. Paddy, soybean, and pulses are among the major crops grown in central India during kharif season and rains at this time are expected to aid sowing of these crops.

Source: Newswire

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Nomura India Fund Reaches $3.6 Billion as Japan Bets on Modi

The land of Abenomics is betting on Modinomics.

The demand is so strong that assets of Nomura Holdings Inc.’s India equity fund quadrupled to almost 400 billion yen ($3.6 billion) in just the past year. Japanese investors owned $13 billion of Indian stocks and bonds at the end of June, the most in data going back to 2012, according to India’s regulator.

“It’s not like we put in any special marketing effort for this fund,” said Kazuto Wada, an executive director at Nomura, Japan’s largest brokerage. “Investors are looking at where the growth will be in the medium to long term, without having to worry about short-term swings in the market.”

India’s economy is expanding at about seven times the pace of Japan’s, buoyed by a burgeoning middle class and more one than million young people joining the labor force every month. Indian shares have hit multiple records this year amid optimism about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies.

(https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2017/07/23/nomura-india-fund-soars-to-3-6-billion-as-japanese-bet-on-modi)

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BOJ minutes: members contest disclosure of exit strategy

Bank of Japan policymakers contested how much information the BOJ should disclose about a possible exit from quantitative easing, minutes of the central bank's June 15-16 meeting showed on Tuesday. Some members said the BOJ needed to clearly explain how it would manage policy and what impact it would have on the central bank's finances, the minutes showed.However, several members said consumer prices were still far from the central bank's 2 percent inflation target, and disclosing information about a proposed exit too soon could cause market turbulence.These members also said it is important for the BOJ to continue with its internal analysis on an exit from quantitative easing. 

The BOJ kept monetary policy on hold at the meeting and upgraded its assessment of private consumption for the first time in six months.

Sources: Nasdaq

Impact : Neutral

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 25th July 2017

Nifty 9,966 /Sensex 32,245/ Bank Nifty 24420

29 Advances / 22 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Markets hit fresh all-time highs; Sensex surpasses 32,200 mark*

Bulls tightened their grip on Dalal Street and frontline gauges ended the Monday’s trade at fresh all-time closing high levels, with Sensex and Nifty surpassing their crucial 32,200 and 9,950 marks respectively. Traders remained optimistic since morning with markets making a positive opening on report that retaining its growth forecast of 7.2% for India for the current fiscal year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest update report ‘World Economic Outlook, July 2017’ said that the country would grow at 7.7% in 2018-19, keeping growth rates forecast in line with the April 2017 forecast. Traders also took some encouragement with India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) statement that the cumulative rainfall received till Sunday across the country was 103% of the benchmark long period average (LPA). Both the north-west and central parts of the country have received ‘excess’ rainfall with 116% and 113% of LPA, respectively.

Markets extended their northward journey and hit all-time highs in noon deals, as some support came with Union minister Nitin Gadkari’s statement that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will accelerate the growth and ease of doing business and help in nation building. Besides, as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.681 billion to touch a new life-time high of $389.059 billion in the week to July 14, helped by increase in foreign currency assets (FCAs). Meanwhile, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya, despite acknowledging creation of “good jobs” in India remains a big challenge, has said that India’s economic growth rate is likely to be 7.5% for the current financial year.

Firm trade in Asian counters too aided sentiments with most of the regional peers ended in green on Monday. However, European counters were trading lower in early deals, as the weakness of the US dollar continued to affect global markets. Investors kept an eye on oil prices ahead of the joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting later in the day to discuss the issue of rising output in Nigeria and Libya.

Back home, impressive quarterly showings by Reliance Industries on Friday and HDFC Bank on Monday have boosted investor sentiments. On the sectoral front, banking stocks remained on buyers’ radar, as RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya said the cleaning of banks’ balance sheet is the ‘number one priority’ for the central bank. Aviation stocks flied higher on reports that domestic air traffic were up 20% in June. Domestic airlines flew 95.86 lakh passengers in June, registering a growth of 20% over the 79.75 lakh passengers flown during the same month in the previous year.

FII’s Activity 24-July-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5481.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 5583.40 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 101.95 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2177.36 crore with gross sales of Rs 986.52 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1190.84 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Successful break & hold above 9950 will see rally till 9980---10035 mark.

Panic will see only close below 9830 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 24000 and resistance at 24500

Close above 24500 will take to 24800---25000+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24000 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 25th July

• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Discount of 10.60 points versus a discount of 4.70 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10050 strike, and maximum put writing was seen at 9950 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9900 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9900

• HCC (17%), DABUR (16%), IRB (16%), M&MFIN (15%) and SREINFRA (14%) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

• BANKINDIA (-9%), CUMMINSIND (-9%), RCOM (-8%), CANBK (-7%) and CADILAHC (-7%) were the top open interest losers in the market. 

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.63 against 1.44 for Friday’s trade. 

• Advance Decline ratio was at 1.10, Advance (115) + Decline (104) = 219 

Derivative Idea

Andhra Bank losses around 2.80% of open interest as Short Unwinding on Daily basis.

On Daily charts, Above 59.20 rally remain continue till 62.00—65.50++ mark. Support and stop loss below 56.50

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Andhra Bank (July) Future above 59.20 Stop Loss 56.50 Target 62.00—65.50++

Corporate Action

ACC Limited- Interim Dividend - Rs 11/- Per Share

Results Today

Asian Paints Limited

Vedanta Limited

Raymond Limited

Hero MotoCorp Limited

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited

Bharti Airtel Limited

Axis Bank Limited

Pidilite Industries Limited

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IMF Growth Forecast

The UK and US economies will expand more slowly in 2017 than previously predicted. It said "weaker-than-expected activity" in the first three months of the year meant the UK would grow by 1.7%, compared with an earlier 2% forecast. The IMF also revised down its US growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.1%.However, its overall global economic predictions of 3.5% growth in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018 - remain unchanged.

Source : BBC News

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Commodity Alert: Malaysia CPO ends down on cues from CBOT soyoil

Futures contracts of crude palm oil ended down on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, taking cues from a decline in soyoil contracts on the CBOT.   The October contract of palm oil on the Malaysian bourse ended at 2,556 ringgits (38,469.96 rupees) per tn, down 0.7% from the previous close.    Prices of crude palm oil and soyoil move in tandem as both are used in the production of bio-fuels. Soyoil contracts on the CBOT are trading lower as there is some relief to the soybean crop in the US from the hot and dry weather of the past few weeks. Investors are also cautious ahead of Tuesday's release of Malaysia palm oil export data for Jul 1-25 by private cargo surveyors.

Source : Newswire

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 24th July 17

                         

Gold futures edged lower on MCX, despite the market players looked ahead to a busy week of economic events, including a Federal Reserve policy decision and US second quarter growth data.

Crude oil futures settled lower on Thursday after reversing off multi-week highs amid profit-taking and nagging worries about supply overhang. Market focus shifted to domestic crude production that climbed 32,000 bbl to a fresh two-year high of 9.429 million bbl last week. In addition, US demand was mixed, with data showing gasoline falling 194,000 bpd last week, while distillate demand spiked 476,000 bpd on the week and up 10.6% higher year-over-year. Overseas, supply continues to rise in Libya and Nigeria, while Iraq plans to increase its output by the end of this year despite the fact that Iraq is part of an ongoing OPEC agreement to cut output by 1.2 million bpd through March 2018.

Copper futures traded lower on MCX despite firming trend on pick-up in demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28450 and Resistance at 28650

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 28650, Close above 28650 will take it to 28800—28950++ mark else could touch its support level of 28450

Fresh selling can be initiated below 28450

Silver

Support at 37900 and Resistance at 38250

Above 38250 rally remain con 38450—38600++ mark else could touch its support level of 37900.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 37900 mark.

Crude

Support at 2935 and Resistance at 3000

Break and sustain below 2935 will take it to 2900—2880 and then to 2850 else could touch its resistance level of 3000.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3000+

Natural Gas 

Support 188 and Resistance 191

Break and above 191 will take it to 193—195 and then to 197 mark else could touch its support level of 188 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 188.00

Copper 

Support at 385 and Resistance 391.50

Trading in range either side breakout will volumes will decide further will decide further.

Economic Data

07:30 P.M Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m:  Previous 5.62M, Forecast 5.59M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

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Commodity Alert: Sambhal mentha oil hits 2-mo high as arrivals halve

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Mentha oil prices in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh, hit a two-month high of 1,055 rupees per kg, as arrivals fell and demand increased from domestic buyers.  Arrivals today were pegged at 40 drums (1 drum = 180 kg) in Sambhal, down 40 drums from Saturday. Supply fell as farmers held back their produce because they expect prices to rise in the coming days.

Source: Newswire

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX Sep pepper down nearly 6% on rise in imports

                        

The September contract of black pepper on the NCDEX was down nearly 6% today as imports from Vietnam soared in June, an exchange. India’s pepper imports from Vietnam are estimated to have risen 106% on year in June to 2,010 tn, Vietnam Pepper Association member Jojan Malayil said. India imports pepper to primarily manufacture value-added items such as oil and oleoresin, and subsequently exports the products to the US, Europe, and Australia.The most-active September contract on the NCDEX traded at 47,200 rupees per 100 kg, down 5.6% on its first day of re-launch. On the MCX, the September contract of black pepper was down 2.85% at 47,300 rupees per 100 kg.

Source : Newswire

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Monsoon Alert: IMD issues red alert over parts of Gujarat till Tue

IMD has issued a red alert over parts of Gujarat region till Tuesday and expects heavy-to-very heavy rains till Wednesday. Gujarat is a major grower of cotton, groundnut and castor and heavy rainfall over north Saurashtra may damage kharif crops. During Jun 1-Jul 23, Saurashtra and Kutch region received 402.8 mm rainfall, 74% above normal, while Gujarat region recorded 461.9 mm rainfall, 22% above normal, according to data by IMD's Hydromet division.

Source : Newswire

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Asia FX: Mixed on caution ahead of US FOMC meet Tue-Wed

                         

Asian currencies were mixed against the US dollar today due to caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday. Most Asian share indices were down today as growing political uncertainty in the US has contributed to the risk-off sentiment among investors globally.    Concerns over US President Donald Trump's ability to deliver on his economic agenda rose after media reports claimed that the investigation into Trump's links with Russia could be extended to his personal businesses. The Trump administration took a fresh hit on Friday after White House spokesman Sean Spicer resigned, highlighting an upheaval within the President's inner circle.

Source: Newswire

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Japan Economic Update

                        

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI reported down to eight-month low of 52.2 in July (52.4 in June) while, Flash Manufacturing Output Index marked at 51.4 (52.2 in June).

(Impact: Neutral)

Source: Forexfactory

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Update on Nifty, Bank Nifty, Derivative idea along with Equity Pick of the day 24th July 2017

Nifty 9,915 /Sensex 32,028/ Bank Nifty 24,257

26 Advances / 25 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Final hour buying helps Sensex to regain 32K mark; Nifty reclaims 9,900 level

Buying in final hour of trade helped markets to end the session with gain of around half a percent, with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 32,000 (Sensex) and 9,900 (Nifty) bastions. Markets started the day on optimistic note with traders taking some encouragement with an Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) supplement report stating that India is expected to achieve the projected growth rate of 7.4% in 2017 and further up 7.6% next year on strong consumption demand, with South Asia leading the growth chart in Asia and the Pacific. Upbeat earnings from market heavyweight Reliance Industries too aided sentiments with company reporting a consolidated quarterly net profit increase of 28%, helped by higher-than-expected refining and petrochemicals margins and a one-time gain. Net profit rose to Rs 9,079 crore in the quarter ended June from Rs 7,077 crore a year earlier. Revenue rose to Rs 92,661 crore, an increase of 25.5% from Rs 73,829 crore a year ago.

Markets in the second half took U-turn and entered into red terrain, as anxiety spread among the investors with ADB’s statement that the goods and services tax is expected to boost growth in the medium term, however there may be some teething pains as firms adjust to the new system. Domestic bourses even went to test psychological 31,800 (Sensex) and 9,850 (Nifty) levels, but the key gauges got some support near those intraday low levels as they trim their losses from thereon and ended near intraday high levels, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Some support also came with the private report stating that strong import growth in June points to continued recovery in India’s domestic demand and highlighted that economic expansion will accelerate from the April-June quarter.

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in red in early deals, as a fresh flow of corporate earnings failed to change the mood of the previous session, dragged down by the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, which pushed the euro close to a two-year high. Asian markets ended mostly in negative terrain on Friday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closing in red.

Back home, stocks related to realty counter edged lower despite reports that foreign investment in Indian real estate sector jumped more than two-fold at $ 7.6 billion during 2014-16 period compared with the previous three years. US accounted for more than 40% of the foreign investments, followed by Canada (18%) and Singapore (17%). Telecom stocks Bharti Airtel, Idea cellular, Reliance Communications, MTNL and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) closed in red after Reliance Industries’ Chairman and Managing Director Mukesh Ambani announced the launch of much-awaited 4G feature phone at the company’s 40th annual general meeting. DTH & Digital Cable TV Providers such as Dish TV India and Hathway Cable & Datacom too closed in red on Jio’s New TV-Enabled Phone.

FII’s Activity 21-July-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4314.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 4139.31 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 175.09 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 494.90 crore with gross sales of Rs 1639.16 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1144.26 crore in debt.

Nifty Levels

Enjoyed or not???

Not able to breach 9830 and skyrocketed. Above 9950 will see rally till 9980---10035 mark.

Panic will see only close below 9830 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 24000 and resistance at 24250

Close above 24250 will take to 24500---24650+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24000 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 24th July

• Nifty July 2017 futures closed at 9910.55 on Friday at a discount of 4.70 points over spot closing of 9915.25.

• Maximum call buying was seen at 9000 strikes and maximum call writing was seen at 10200 strike, and maximum put writing was seen at 9900 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9800 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9800

• ARVIND (14.00%), RELIANCEI (12.5%), SUZLON (16%), BEML (5.10%), and ICIL (5.00) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

• CUMMINS (-13.60%), DLF (-11.90%), FORTIS(-6.70%), Adani Power(-1.50%) and KPIT (-1.40%) were the top open  interest losers in the market. 

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.44 against 1.35 for Tuesday’s trade. 

Derivative Idea

Adani Power losses around 1.50% of open interest as Short Unwinding on Daily basis.

On Daily charts, Above 32.50 rally remain continue till 35.00—38.00 and then to 40++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 29.40

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Adani Power (July) Future above 32.50 Stop Loss 29.40 Target 35.00—38.00 and then to 40.00++

Today's Top Pick

Bata India... Above 580---582 will see upside rally till 594---615++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 568.

Any sharp down fall will be buying opportunity in it.

Corporate Action Ex-Date Today

Titan Company Limited- Dividend - Rs 2.60 Per Share

Lupin - Annual general meeting/ Dividend- Rs 7.50 Per Share

Tata Consultancy Services Limited - Interim Dividend - Rs 7/- Per Share

Wockhardt Limited- Annual general meeting

Results Today

Ambuja Cements Limited

Zee Entertainment

Enterprises Limited

Tata Communications Limited

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited

Just Dial Limited

HDFC Bank Limited

Bharti Infratel Limited

Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited

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