Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 4th July17

Gold futures ended lower on Monday as the dollar rebounded and 10-year US Treasury yields climbed, weighing on appetite for non-interest bearing bullion. The Institute for Supply Management revealed in a report that the activity in the US manufacturing sector grew at an accelerated rate in the month of June. The ISM showed its purchasing managers index climbed to 57.8 in June from 54.9 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 55.2.

Crude oil futures continued their upmove on for the eighth straight session, the longest such streak in months and ended up by over two percent on Monday, after data pointed to diminished U.S. output, though reports said news of rising OPEC production could cap gains. Meanwhile, traders continued getting support with report that the U.S. rig count fell last week for the first time in about five months, while US government data showed crude output fell in April for the first time this year.

Copper futures traded down on MCX as speculators offloaded their positions amid subdued demand at the domestic spot markets. Moreover, weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on rising stocks which have gained 14 per cent since Wednesday to hit 278,275 tonnes too fuelled the downtrend.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28050 and Resistance 28225

Break and sustain below 28050 will take it to 27900—27750 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 28225 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 28225 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Silver

Support at 37600 and Resistance at 37900

Break and sustain below 37600 will take it to 37300—37050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 37900.

Further upside rally will see above 37900 mark.

Crude

Support at 3025 and Resistance at 3080

If unable to breach its resistance level then we can expect it to touch its support level of 3025 again. 

Further downside panic will see below 3025 mark.

Natural Gas 

Support 191.50 and Resistance 195

Break and sustain below 191.50 will take it to 189—187 and then to 185 mark else could touch its resistance level of 195.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 195

Economic Data

US Bank Holiday on account of independence day.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Base Metals (4th July’2017)

Copper 

Support at 385 and resistance is 391.

Break and sustain below 385 will take to 381.50---378 and then to 375 mark else it could test its resistance level of 391 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 391.

Trade with levels only.

Nickel 

Support at 595 and resistance 613.

Looks weak and close below 595 will see more downside till 586---578 mark else could touch its resistance level of 613.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 613.

Trade with levels only.

Lead 

Support at 149 and Resistance at 152.

Looks weak and sustain below 149 will take to 146.50---144.00 and then to 142.00 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 152 again

Fresh buying can be initiated above 152.

Trade with levels only. Any reversal seems will update

Zinc

Support at 180.50 and resistance is 183

Close below 180.50 will take to 178---176.5 and then to 174 mark else it could test it’s resistance level of 183 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 183.

Trade with levels only.

Aluminium

Support at 124 and resistance is 125.50

Close below 124 will take it to 122.50---121.00 mark else could touch its resistance level of 125.50.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 125.50.

Trade with levels only. Any reversal seems will update

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (04-July-2017)

                       

Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon Alert (IMD): Heavy rains are likely over several parts of east India until Saturday. Heavy-to-very heavy rainfall is "very likely" in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and in the Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim subdivision until Thursday, while heavy showers are likely in the regions during Fri-Sat. The weather body said heavy rains are also expected in Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal on Friday and in Jharkhand today. The major crop grown in east India is rice and monsoon rains are likely to benefit the ongoing paddy sowing in these regions.

Soybean futures traded with higher note on expectation of good physical buying due to rally in edible oils. Moreover, lower pace in physical arrivals and lower sowing data compared to last year also support prices. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during last week were down 37% to 39,588 tonnes as compared to 62,976 tonnes in the previous week. Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 15.58 lakh hectares till last week, down about 19% on year. Last year, the acreage was 18.92 lakh hectares.

NCDEX July Turmeric closes higher yesterday mainly on short covering as Open Interest were down by about 560 tonnes. Recently good physical demand and diminishing arrivals in June supported bullish move last month. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during last month. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 03-Jul-17, down 22% to 14,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 18,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per spice board, Increased global demand for turmeric, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, drove its exports to attain figures of 1,16,500 tonnes in volume and crossed Rs 1,241 crore in value terms in 2016-17.

Guar complex traded with lower bias as developing favourable weather condition for further advancement of monsoon across India may weigh down on prices. Sowing is likely to commence in Haryana and will start in Rajasthan in starting weeks of next month. Market is running with adequate availability of guar stocks whereas higher planting prospects for upcoming season could keep prices under pressure. Moreover, prices may track cues from weakness in crude oil prices which may affect the overseas demand of guar gum adversely. India exported about 54392 MT of guar gum during month of April, 2017 higher by 134% of last year export of 23158 Mt for corresponding time.

Technical Aspect: (July Contract)

Guarseed

Our sell call of Guar seed from 3340 to 3230 proven great…made a low of 3197 today.

What to expect??? 

Now support seen at 3170 and resistance is at 3350.

Looks weak and close below 3170 will take it to 3120 and 3050 and 2970 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3350.

Fresh buying can be seen above 3350.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref

Support at 637 and resistance is 648.

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

Our sell call of Dhaniya from 5150 to 4800 proven great and made a low of 4790 today.

Now what to expect?

Support is 4750 and resistance is 4920.

Looks weak and daily close below 4750 will take it to 4620 and then 4550 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4920.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 4920. 

Jeera 

Support is 18700 and resistance is at 19050.

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Support seen at 3450 and resistance is at 3650.

Looks positive and every dip towards 3550 will accumulate fresh buying which will take it to 3650 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3450.

Cocudakl

Support 1660 and resistance at 1750.

Looks weak and every rise close to 1750 will be a selling opportunity in it. Close below 1660 will see more downside panic in it. 

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1750

Mentha oil 

Support at 880 and resistance is at 902. 

Looks weak and close below 880 will take it to 868 and 850 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 902.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 902 mark.

Trade with levels only.

CPO (June)

Below 486... Panic remain continue till 478---475 and then to 470 mark

Hurdle at 490.50

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 4th July 2017

Starting the new month on a weak note, Indian rupee extended losses and ended considerably weaker against US dollar on Monday, on account of selling of American currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained subdued with report that the growth of eight core sectors slowed to 3.6% in May, as against 5.2% in May last year, due to fall in output of coal and fertiliser. Also, activity in India’s manufacturing sector eased to a four-month low of 50.9 in June, as against 51.6 in the month of May, amid a slowdown in output and new orders as softer domestic consumption partly offset strong foreign demand. Besides, firm dollar against a basket of other currencies overseas too added pressure on the domestic unit. On the global front, pound fell for the first time in nine days against dollar after UK manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in June than forecast. The IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing dropped to three-month low of 54.3 in June from a 56.3 in May.

USDINR

Support at 64.75 and Resistance at 65.10

Break and sustain above 65.10 will take it to 65.30—65.50++ mark else could touch its support level of 64.75 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 64.75 mark.

GBPINR

Support at 84.10 and Resistance at 84.70

Close below 84.10 will take it to 83.70—83.40 mark else could touch its resistance level of 84.70.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 84.70 mark.

EURINR

Support at 73.80 and Resistance at 74.25

Close below 73.80 will take it to 73.50—73.10 mark else could touch its resistance level of 74.25 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 74.25 only.

JPYINR

Below 57.60 panic remain continue till 57.30—57.10 mark, Hurdle intact at 58.10

Fresh buying can be initiated above 58.10 mark.

More will update soon!!

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Daily Derivative Outlook 4th July

• Nifty July 2017 futures closed at 9621.80 on Monday at a premium of 6.80 points over spot closing of 9615.00.

• Call writing was seen at 9800 & 9700 strikes, put writing was seen at 9400 strike.

• Maximum positions are at 9800 CE and 9400 PE. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 9400-9800.

•PETRONET (100%), REPCOHOME (75%), SRTRANSFIN (60%) MANAPPURAM (48%), CHENNPETRO (47%), were the top open interest gainers in the market.

 • ABIRLANUVO (-7.50%), TATACHEM (-6%), NMDC (-6%), GRASIM (-5.50%) and INDIGO (-5%) were the top open interest losers in the market.

•The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.07 for July month contract.

 • FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1454.66 crore in equities.

• Nifty July futures saw an addition of 0.19 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 19.76 million (mn) units.



Derivative Idea

SRTRANSFIN added around 60.00% of open interest as Long positions. On Daily charts, SRTRANSFIN has given symmetrical triangle breakout at 1025 level with increase in volumes too and also trading above 21 & 55 DEMA which stood at 996 & 1001.

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendations

Buy SRTRANSFIN (July) Future above 1045 Stop loss 1010 Target 1090—1120++

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 4th July 2017

Nifty 9,615 /Sensex 31,221/ Bank Nifty 23,272

36 Advances / 24 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks display spirited performance post GST launch

Indian equity indices showcased a courageous performance and went on to outclass indices around the world by vivaciously rallying by close to a percent in the session and settled above the psychological 9,600 (Nifty) and 31,200 (Sensex) levels. Sentiments got a boost with report that the government has ramped up capital spending by nearly 60% in the first two months of the current financial year, in a bid to perk up investment sentiment and crowd in private investment. Early passage of the budget in March has allowed the government start spending from the beginning of the new financial year in April. In April-May, the government spent Rs 52,536 crore, 58% more than the year earlier period.

Adding optimism among investors, Moody’s said GST will be credit positive for India. Implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) will be positive for India's rating as it would lead to higher GDP growth and increased tax revenues. 

Some support also came with IMD report indicating that the first month of monsoon has been heartening with India recording a 4% surplus in rainfall combined with a well-distributed pattern, except in the eastern regions. The average rainfall in June was 170.2mm, 7mm higher than the usual 163.6mm. Traders paid no heed to the report stating that manufacturing activity in India fell to a four-month low in June amid softer rise in factory new orders. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)-a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance-slipped to 50.9 in the month of June as against 51.6 in the month of May.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher on Monday as investors digested cheering economic news out of China and Japan. The survey of Chinese manufacturing from Caixin found output at a three-month high in June, while Japan's official ‘tankan’ snapshot of business sentiment showed levels of cheer at their highest for more than three years. Meanwhile, investors awaited cues from this week's G20 summit, the Wednesday release of Fed minutes and the US nonfarm payrolls report to be released on Friday.  Meanwhile, European shares began the new quarter with solid gains, while the dollar lifted from nine-month lows as US Treasury yields hit their highest since mid-May.

Back home, Fertiliser stocks rallied after the GST Council lowered the rate on fertiliser from 12% to 5% and on tractor parts from 28% to 18%. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the decision to reduce the tax rate on fertiliser was taken because of apprehensions that price of the crop nutrient may go up. Besides, consumer goods makers such as ITC surged on hopes the newly implemented GST would reduce retail prices and boost sales. In scrip specific development, Carmaker Maruti Suzuki India gained after posting a 7.6% jump in June vehicle sales on Saturday, while commercial vehicles maker Ashok Leyland climbed to its highest in a year after reporting an 11% rise in June total sales.

FII’s Activity 3-Jul-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5833.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 4378.89 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1454.66 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1463.01 crore with gross sales of Rs 765.03 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 697.98 crore in debt.

Nifty Levels

Above 9580 will see rally till 9680---9720 mark. Panic will see only close below 9500 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23000 and resistance at 23500

Above 23370 will see further upside rally till 23460---23500. Close above 23500 will see sharp upside rally till 23800---24000 mark.

Support and stop loss below 23000 on closing basis. 

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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