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Friday, June 30, 2017

Daily Derivative Outlook 30th June



•  Nifty (Jun) futures premium increased marginally from 13.15  points  to  15.00  points  with  2.03 crore  shares  in open interest. 

•  Total open interest in the market was Rs 238,090 crore and Rs 63,761 crore were added in open interest. 

•  Market wide rollover was at 83.82% v/s 82.58%, whereas rollover in Nifty futures was at 72.97% v/s 74.09% in the last expiry. 

•  RBLBANK  (94%),  CENTURYTEX  (94%),  JSWENERGY (94%), JINDALSTEL (93%) and TATAGLOBAL (93%) witnessed good rollover in the next series. 

•  ABIRLANUVO (59%), PETRONET (62%), TORNTPHARM (64%), NIITTECH (66%) and MOTHERSUMI (67%) witnessed low rollover in the next series.


• On the  options  front  in  the  July  series  9400  PE  stands with the highest number of shares in the open interest (OI) followed by 9500 strike price. Whereas on call side 9700 CE stands with the highest number of shares in the open interest (OI) followed by 9800 strike price. 


Derivative Idea


Jindal Steel added around 68.93% of open interest as Long positions and witness 93% rollover to july series.

On Daily charts, Jindal steel formed a squat bar which indicates increase in volumes too and it also trading above 21 and 55 DEMA. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.



Trading Recommendations


Buy Jindal Steel (July) Future above 124.50 Stop Loss 118 Target 130--133++ (Lot Size 4500)











More will update soon!!

Currency Report 30th June 2017



*Rupee ends weaker for third straight session *



Extending losses for the third day in a row, Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Thursday, due to increased demand of the greenback from the importers and the banks. Investors remained cautious after Fitch Ratings in its latest report raised concerns over the recent spate of declarations of farm loan waivers across the country, adding that these moves could have a significant impact on state government finances and might undermine efforts to bring down general government debt. The rating agency noted that the farm loan waivers will also lead to further fiscal slippage at the state level or will reduce the funds available for public investment. However, positive gains in equity market as well as dollar weakness against other currencies overseas arrested some of the rupee’s fall. On the global front, euro its highest level in almost 14-months against dollar on Thursday, as investors shrugged off efforts by the European Central Bank to moderate the message in a speech given by President Mario Draghi earlier this week.


USDINR July








Above 64.75 rally remain continue till 65.00—65.10 and then to 65.30++ mark.

Support intact at 64.50




GBPINR



Hurdle at 84.70, Weekly close above 84.70 will take it to 85.00—85.30++ mark else could touch its support level of 83.80.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 83.80 mark.


EURINR





Support at73.90 and Resistance at 74.50

Close above 74.50 will take it to 74.80—75.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 73.90 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 73.90 mark.



JPYINR




Support at 57.90 and Resistance at 58.30

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 58.30, Break and sustain above 58.30 will take it to 58.50—58.80++ mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.90 mark.










More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 30th June 2017





Nifty 9,504 /Sensex 30,857/ Bank Nifty 23,227

25 Advances / 26 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


Indian market gives up most of its gains in final hour
Indian stocks markets showed a volte-face on the final day of June F&O series, as what started on a promising note ended as a dismal show. The frontline indices pared most of intraday gains to close marginally in green, with the S&P BSE Sensex ending below its crucial 31,000 marks, while the Nifty50 settled just a tad above 9,500 marks. Sentiments got some support with the report that India's GDP growth witnessed a trough in January-March quarter, but going forward the economy is expected to see gradual improvement in growth numbers primarily driven by consumption. The report added that consumption has recovered from the demonetization shock and while external demand may be down, it remains supportive of growth. Some support also came with the report that investments in domestic capital markets via participatory notes (P-notes) have surprisingly surged to a seven-month high of Rs 1.81 lakh crore at the end of May despite stringent norms put in place by SEBI to curb inflow of illicit funds. According to Sebi data, total value of P-note investments in Indian markets - equity, debt and derivatives - increased to Rs 1,80,718 crore at May-end after hitting a four-month low of Rs 1,68,545 crore at the end of April.
However, the sanguinity in local markets was under check as profit booking in Energy and Healthcare counters exerted downside pressure on the frontline indices and dragged them even below to the psychological 9,550 (Nifty) and 30,900 (Sensex) levels. Investors remained cautious after hawkish comments from major central banks signalled rate hikes and that the era of stimulus might be coming to an end. In Britain, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney surprised many by conceding a hike was likely to be needed as the economy came closer to running at full capacity. Further, some weakness also came with the private report indicating that Loan waiver schemes being doled out to farmers could have a significant impact on state government finances and pose risk of further fiscal slippages. Four states-- Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab and Karnataka, which account for around one-third of India's population-- have announced farm loan waivers and other state governments are likely to feel pressure to implement similar policies, particularly in states with upcoming elections.
On the global front, Asian equity markets ended higher on Thursday, reflecting investors' confidence in the global economic outlook after central bankers around the world signalled that interest rates may need to rise. Japanese shares closed near their highest level in nearly two years as the yen held steady despite North Korea's warning that the country would keep building up its nuclear arsenal regardless of sanctions, pressure or military attack. Investors are awaiting the release of China's official monthly indexes on factory and service sector activity Friday. The numbers are widely watched early indicators of the health of the world's No. 2 economy and investors will be watching fresh insight into China's recovery. Meanwhile, European markets steadied as bank stocks extended a winning streak, after the US Federal Reserve cleared capital return plans from big banks.
Back home, the market breadth remained in favour of Advances, as there were 1616 shares on the gaining side against 958 shares on the losing side, while 163 shares remain unchanged.



FII’s Activity 29-June-17


The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5205.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 5569.06 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 363.10 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1982.54 crore with gross sales of Rs 500.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1482.07 crore in debt.


Now what to expect??




Nifty Levels


Support at 9500 and resistance at 9580
Weekly close below 9500 will see panic till 9420---9380 mark else it could test its resistance level of 9580 again.

Rally will see only close above 9580 level only



Bank Nifty Levels




Below 23230 will see further downside panic till 23000---22850 mark.

Rally will see only close above 23650 marks

Trade with levels only

Today's Top Pick


JSW Steel


Above 205 will see upside rally till 208--213++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 197. 

Any sharp down fall will be buying opportunity in it.

Corporate Action Today

Hero MotoCorp Limited- Annual General Meeting/ Dividend - Rs 30/- Per Share

JSW Energy Limited- Annual General Meeting










More will update soon!!

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 29th June 17





Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday as the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies for a second straight day following a global cyber attack and a delay to US healthcare legislation that fueled doubts about President Donald Trump's ability to pass measures expected to boost the economy.

Crude oil futures traded higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity as slide in US oil production underpinned the market that has been under pressure from supply glut. The US EIA said that the crude stocks grew 1,18,000 barrels last week, while weekly production fell 1,00,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.3 million bpd. That was the biggest decline in weekly output since July 2016.

Copper futures ended higher on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. Copper was also supported by signs that supply is shrinking as exchange inventories fall and amid indications of solid demand in China.





Technical Level



Gold 




Support at 28350 and Resistance 28850

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.



Silver






Support at 38350 and Resistance at 38900

Close above 38900 will take it to 39300—39700++ mark else could touch its support level of 38450 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 38350 mark.



Crude






Support at 2880 and Resistance at 2930


Close above 2930 will take it to 2980—3000+ mark else could touch its support level of 2880 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 2880.



Natural Gas (July)




Trend looks positive and could touch 205---208 and then to 210++ mark.

Support intact at 196.



Copper 





Hurdle at 385 , Close above 385 will take it to 390---395++ mark 

Support and stop loss below 378



Economic Data



06:00 P.M Final GDP q/q:  Previous 1.2% Forecast 1.2% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Prelim GDP q/q – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.


06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 241K Forecast 241K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.


08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 61B, Forecast 50B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.












More will update soon!!!

बिजनेस न्यूज़ : GST के दायरे में पेट्रोलियम को लाना राज्यों के हित में होगा : जेटली






जीएसटी लागू होने से दो दिन पहले वित्त मंत्री अरुण जेटली ने प्राइवेट चैनल को दिए एक इंटरव्यू में उम्मीद जताई की जल्द ही पेट्रोल और रियल एस्टेट को भी जीएसटी के दायरे ले आया जाएगा. उन्होंने कहा केंद्र तो इन दोनों को जीएसटी के दायरे में लाना चाहता था लेकिन राज्यों को कुछ समस्या थी जिसकी वजह से इनको छोड़ दिया गया है. उन्होंने उम्मीद जताई कि जब जीएसटीएन की फंक्शनिंग सामन्य हो जाएगी और लोग इसका फायदा देखेंगे तो राज्य इन दोनों को भी जीएसटी के दायरे में लाएंगे. वित्त मंत्री ने कहा कि पेट्रोलियम और रियल एस्टेट को GST में लाना राज्यों के हित में होगा|




Source: MarketTimesTv






More will update soon!!

कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : राशन वाले अनाज के दाम नहीं बढ़ाएगी सरकार: पासवान





सरकार ने खाद्य कानून के तहत राशन की दुकानों के जरिये बेचे जाने वाले अनाज का मूल्य एक साल और नहीं बढ़ाने का फैसला किया है। पूर्व संप्रग शासन के दौरान वर्ष 2013 में पारित राष्ट्रीय खाद्य सुरक्षा कानून (एनएफएसए) के तहत अनाज के दाम में हर तीन साल बाद समीक्षा का प्रावधान है। फिलहाल इस कानून के तहत सरकार देश में 81 करोड़ लोगों को एक से तीन रपये किलो के भाव पर अनाज उपलब्ध करा रही है। इससे सरकारी खजाने पर सालाना 1.4 लाख करोड़ रुफए का बोझ पड़ रहा है।


खाद्य मंत्री राम विलास पासवान ने ट्विटर पर लिखा है प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी ने एनएफएसए के तहत एक और वर्ष के लिये खाद्यान्न की कीमत नहीं बढ़ाने का एेतिहासिक फैसला किया है। उन्होंने लिखा है कि कीमत नहीं बढ़ाने का फैसला करके सरकार ने वंचित वर्ग की बेहतरी के लिये प्रतिबद्धता दिखायी है। सरकार देशभर में फैली पांच लाख राशन की दुकानों के जरिये हर महीने प्रति व्यक्ति 5 किलो अनाज सस्ती दर पर आपूर्ति कर रही है। इसके तहत चावल तीन रपये किलो, गेहूं दो रपये तथा मोटा अनाज एक रपये किलो पर उपलब्ध कराये जा रहे हैं। खाद्य सुरक्षा कानून नवंबर 2016 से देशभर में लागू किया गया है।  





Source: MarketTimesTv









More will update soon!!

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Currency Report 29th June 2017



* Rupee ends tad lower against dollar on Wednesday *



In line with equity market, the Indian rupee ended marginally lower against US dollar due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Traders remained cautious ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation from July 1, 2017. According to the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, people may have to face some difficulty initially during the GST is rolled out, but in the long run the new indirect tax regime would help cut tax evasion and check price rise. He also said that the GST Council will look at bringing real estate within the GST net by next year and revisit taxing of petroleum products under the new regime in 1-2 years. Besides, US dollar’s gain against other currencies overseas too dragged the rupee down. On the global front, euro surged to a one-year high on Wednesday, sparked by European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s startlingly upbeat view on the inflation outlook.


USDINR July


Support at 64.55 and resistance at 64.75

Break and sustain above 64.75 will take it to 65.00—65.10++ mark else could touch its support level of 64.55 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 64.55



GBPINR



Above 83.70 rally remain continue till 84.00—84.20++ mark in days to come.

Support intact at 83.20



EURINR


Hurdle at 73.80, above it rally remain continue till 74.10—74.30++ mark else could touch its support level of 73.30 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 73.30 mark.



JPYINR


Support at 57.50 and Resistance at 57.80

Looks positive can could touch its resistance level of 57.80, Close above 57.80 will take it to 58.00—58.30++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.50 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.50










More will update soon!!

Daily Derivative Outlook 29th June




• Nifty (Jun) futures closed at a Premium of 4.30 points versus Premium of 1.60 points, while Bank Nifty June 2017 futures closed at 23240.00 on Wednesday at a premium of 5 points over spot closing of 23235.85


• Call writing was seen at 9600 strikes, put writing was seen at 9500 strike and put buying (unwinding by writers) was seen at 9400 strike. 

• Maximum positions are at 9700 CE and 9500 PE. Nifty is likely to trade in the range of 9700-9500.

•PETRONET (41%), MRPL (21%), HDIL (19%), LT (17%) and KSCL (16%) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

 • CADILAHC (-14%), NBCC (-13%), UNIONBANK (-13%), HEXAWARE (-13%) and ANDHRABANK (-12%) were the top open interest losers in the market


• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 0.84 for June month contract.

• Around 4.11 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in price indicating short buildup was observed by market participants in Wednesday’s trade. 

• On the options front volatility index has decreased in Wednesday’s trade by around 4%.



Derivative Idea


HDIL added around 19% of open interest as Long positions. On Daily charts, HDIL formed a squat bar which indicates increase in volumes and upside move can be expected if close above yesterday’s high.

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.


Trading Recommendations


Buy HDIL (July) Future above 89.55 Stop Loss 85.50 Target 94.00—96.00 (Lot Size 8000)












More will update soon!!

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 29th June 2017





Nifty 9,491 /Sensex 30,834/ Bank Nifty 23,235

28 Advances / 23 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


Indian equities end a lacklustre session with moderate cut
The penultimate day of June series futures and options contract expiry turned out to be a disappointing session for the Indian equity indices, as they went on to extend the declining streak for the third successive session and settled below the psychological 9,500 (Nifty) and 30,900 (Sensex) levels. The session largely remained characterized by choppiness, as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band, lacking any significant upside triggers. Trading Sentiments were undermined after global credit rating agency Fitch maintained its negative outlook on Indian banks because of erosion of the sector's core capitalization, even as they enter the final phase of Basel III migration. This is based on its assessment that the sector's core capitalization, which has been eroded in the last few years, will remain challenged unless it is boosted by adequate capital support from the authorities or equity raising from capital markets. Further, negative opening of European markets and ongoing weakness in other Asian markets, after Wall Street was knocked hard in the wake of a delay to a US healthcare reform vote, also spoiled investors' sentiments. Some weakness also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that people may have to face some difficulty initially during the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is rolled out, but in the long run the new indirect tax regime would help cut tax evasion and check price rise. He also said that the GST Council will look at bringing real estate within the GST net by next year and revisit taxing of petroleum products under the new regime in 1-2 years. However, the broader markets showed some resilience and settled on a positive note, outperforming their larger peers by quite a margin. Market participants got some confidence with Union Power Minister Piyush Goyal’s statement that the GST will reduce the work of businesses by reducing the number of taxes from 11 to one. He added that the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) will make filing returns and make book keeping very easy.
On the global front, Asian equity markets ended in red on Wednesday, as the US Senate's move to delay a vote on healthcare bill until after next week's July 4 holiday triggered concerns whether the Trump administration will be able to deliver pledged tax cuts and infrastructure spending. In her first public appearance since the US Federal Reserve hiked rates on June 14, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the US central bank would continue to raise interest rates only gradually. She also said that she does not believe that there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives, thanks largely to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash. Further, Chinese shares edged lower as comments by Premier Li Keqiang raised concerns over an economic slowdown and regulatory tightening. The Indonesian market remained closed for the Eid-ul-Fitr holiday. Meanwhile, European stocks dropped in early trade, pulled down by a rising euro, which looked headed for its highest level in a year on worries the European Central Bank may start winding down monetary stimulus.
Back home, the market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1276 shares on the gaining side against 1332 shares on the losing side, while 181 shares remained unchanged.


FII’s Activity 28-June-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7896.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 6954.86 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 941.69 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 994.89 crore with gross sales of Rs 249.31 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 745.58 crore in debt.


Now what to expect??






Nifty Levels






Support at 9500 and resistance at 9580

Close below 9500 will see panic till 9420---9380 mark else it could test its resistance level of 9580 again.

Rally will see only close above 9580 level only




Bank Nifty Levels




Below 23250 will see further downside panic till 23000---22850 mark.

Rally will see only close above 23420 mark

Trade with levels only

Corporate Action Today

Bharat Financial Inclusion Limited- Annual General Meeting

HDFC Bank Limited- Dividend - Rs 11/- Per Share













More will update soon!!