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Friday, June 23, 2017
Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 23rd June 17
Gold futures ended higher on Thursday as the risk averse sentiments amid weaker oil prices drove up the demand for the metal, with a softer dollar and weakness in US Treasury yields also lent support.
Crude oil futures got some relief and snapped their three days losing streak on Thursday. Though, the crude managed to pare some of the losses of last couple of sessions but sentiment remained bearish as investors continue to fret about rising global stockpiles. OPEC members are in talks about making further cuts in oil production, according to Iran's oil minister. In May, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.8 million bpd agreed in November last year.
Comex copper futures ended marginally lower on Thursday, while copper ended flat in London market. Copper supply worries increased on Thursday as workers at Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesia-based Grasberg mine extended their strike for another month.
Technical Level
Gold
Support at 28680 and Resistance 28850
Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation.
Silver
Support at 38300 and Resistance at 38800---39300
Close above 38500 will take it to 38800—39300 mark else could touch its support level of 38400 again
Fresh selling can be initiated below 38400 mark.
Crude
Support at 2760 and Resistance at 2820
Close below 2760 will take it to 2730—2690 mark else could touch its resistance level of 2820 again
Fresh buying can be initiated above 2820 mark
Natural Gas
Support at 184 and Resistance at 191.50
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
Copper
Support at 370 and Resistance at 378
Close above 378 will take it to 382---383+++ mark else could touch its support level of 370 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 370 mark
Economic Data
06:00 P.M New Home Sales: Previous 569K, Forecast 599K, Actual –??
Impact – Increase in New Home Sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.
More will update soon!!
Currency Report 23rd June 2017
Rupee extends weakness for third straight session
Indian rupee extended its weakness for the third consecutive day on Thursday, due to continued capital outflows amid growing demand for dollar from importers. Sentiment remained subdued with ratings agency ICRA’s report that funding of crop loan waivers would likely worsen the fiscal deficit and leverage levels of state governments. According to the report, there is a significant risk that productive capital spending may end up being used to fund a portion of the loan waivers, impacting the growth of overall investment activity in the country. However, the losses were contained because of a weak dollar against key global currencies. On the global front, dollar eased versus yen on Thursday as a recent rally tied to bets on another US interest rate hike this year lost steam.
USDINR (June)
Support at 64.30 and resistance at 64.60---64.75
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
GBP-INR
Support at 81.70 and Resistance at 82.05
Above 82.05 will take it to 82.30—82.60++ mark else could touch its support level of 81.70.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 81.70
EURINR
Support at 71.95 and resistance 72.40
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
JPYINR
Support at 57.80 Resistance at 58.35
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
More will update soon!!
Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 23rd June 2017
Nifty 9,630 /Sensex 31,290 / Bank Nifty 23,736
22 Advances / 29 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Indian benchmarks give up the gains in final hours to close flat
Indian equity markets showed a volte-face on Thursday as what started on a confident note ended as a dismal show. The optimism in domestic markets petered out completely by the end of trade, tracking weak trend seen in European markets, while investors also took cues from the minutes of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June policy meeting. The central bank’s monetary policy committee wants more evidence that inflation has sustainably fallen below its target before deciding whether to lower interest rates. RBI voted 5-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.25% earlier this month, but issued a slightly less hawkish statement after consumer inflation eased to 2.99% in April, below its 4% target. Adding the cautiousness among investors, Union Urban Development Minister Venkaiah Naidu said loan waiver has become fashion now and should be waived in extreme situations only.
Marketmen were optimistic for most part of the session, as sentiments remained upbeat with the report that economic think-tank NCAER revised up its projection for the country's economic growth to 7.6% for the current fiscal, compared with the earlier prediction of 7.3% on forecast of normal monsoon. In its quarterly review of the economy, NCAER said prospects for the agricultural sector in 2017-18 remain optimistic on forecast of good rains. The agency has also revised upward its forecast of GVA (Gross Value Added at Basic Prices) growth at 7.3% for 2017-18 from its February estimate of 7%. However, the sanguinity in local markets was under check, as profit booking in metal and Real Estate counters exerted downside pressure on the frontline indices and dragged them even below to the psychological 9,650 (Nifty) and 31,300 (Sensex) levels. Moreover, the broader markets too succumbed to the selling pressure and went home with cuts of over half a percent. In a key decision, the market regulator SEBI banned participatory notes (p-notes) from taking naked positions in the derivatives segment, and eased the entry process for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). It also removed the one-year lock-in requirement for private equity investors registered as alternative investment funds (AIFs) in initial public offerings (IPOs).
On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Thursday, as oil prices held steady in Asian deals after falling more than 2 percent overnight on worries over whether OPEC-led output cuts would be able to rein in a three-year glut. The market largely shrugged off comments overnight from Iran's oil minister that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are considering deeper cuts in production. Further, Chinese shares added to gains made on Wednesday after MSCI included mainland shares in its emerging market indexes. Meanwhile, European markets got off to a gap down opening and were trading with cuts of over half a percent.
Back home, the market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1115 shares on the gaining side against 1545 shares on the losing side, while 158 shares remained unchanged.
FII’s Activity 22-June-17
The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4835.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 4923.88 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 88.59 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1574.92 crore with gross sales of Rs 748.77 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 826.15 crore in debt.
Now what to expect??
Nifty Levels
Support at 9580 and resistance at 9640
Above 9650 will see rally till 9690---9750 mark else it could test its support level of 9580 again.
Panic will see only close below 9580 level only
Bank Nifty Levels
Support at 23600 and resistance at 23800
Above 23800 will see further upside rally till 24000+++ mark.
Fresh downside panic will see only close below 23600 mark.
Trade with levels only
AGM Today
Ajanta Pharma Limited
More will update soon!!
Thursday, June 22, 2017
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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 22nd June 17
Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday as an oil price slump pushed down stock markets and a weaker US dollar made bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. The US Treasury yield curve was the flattest in nearly a decade as investors evaluated hawkish Federal Reserve policy and softening inflation.
Crude oil futures plummeted on Wednesday to their fresh seven month low, despite government data showing a drop in U.S. oil stockpiles. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week to June 16, below expectations of draw of about 2.1m barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by roughly 578,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 1.1m barrels. EIA said that surging U.S. production has offset the supply quota plan from OPEC and Russia. Output jumped to 9.35 million bpd last week, up 20,000 bpd from the previous week.
Comex copper futures ended higher on Wednesday, while London copper prices too rose in response to a retreat in the US dollar from its recent peaks and evidence of tightening supply. The dollar dipped versus a currency basket after touching a five-week peak on Tuesday, with a slump in oil prices to seven- month lows calling into question the impact of inflation on the pace of future interest rate hikes.
Technical Level
Gold
Support at 28500 and Resistance 28730---28780
Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation.
Silver
Support at 37700 and Resistance at 38450
Close above 38450 will take it to 38800---39000+ mark else could touch its support level of 37700 again
Fresh selling can be initiated below 37700 mark.
Crude
Support at 2730 and Resistance at 2800
Close below 2730 will take it to 2690—2630 mark else could touch its resistance level of 2800 again
Fresh buying can be initiated above 2800 mark
Trade with levels only
Natural Gas
Support at 186.00 and Resistance at 190
Close below 186.00 will take it to 182---178 mark else could touch its resistance level of 190 again
Fresh buying can be initiated above 190 mark.
Copper
Support at 367 and Resistance at 376
Be cautious in copper at upper levels. We will expect correction panic from upper levels. For this we have to check weather it falls from 374 or 381 mark.
Trade safely...Any reversal seems will update
Economic Data
06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim: Previous 237K Forecast 241K, Actual –??
Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.
08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage: Previous 78B, Forecast 55B, Actual –??
Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.
More will update soon!!
Currency Report 22nd June 2017
Rupee erases most of the early losses; ends marginally weaker against dollar
Indian rupee, after making a weak start, gave away most of its losses and concluded marginally lower against dollar on Wednesday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Sentiments remained downbeat with the inclusion of Chinese mainland stocks to the MSCI index, which could lead to hundreds of billions of dollars worth of share purchases, shrinking shares of other emerging markets, including India. Some concerns also came with CARE Ratings' latest report that the fiscal deficit estimate for 2017-18 is set to rise to 3.35% from present 3.24% of GDP, impacted by Rs 17,780 crore shortfall in non-tax revenue (NTR) target from telecom services. Besides, a fragile domestic equity market too affected the rupee, but dollar’s weakness against some currencies overseas kept the fall to a minimum. On the global front, dollar pulled back from one-month highs against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as a tumble in crude oil prices pushed down US yields, while the pound wobbled near a two-month low after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shot down hopes of a British interest rate hike.
USDINR (June)
Support at 64.30 and resistance at 64.60---64.75
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
GBP-INR
Support at 81.50 and Resistance at 82.05
If unable to breach its resistance level of 82.05 then it can touch its support level of 81.50 again. Further downside panic will see below 81.50 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 82.05
EURINR
Support at 71.95 and resistance 72.40
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
JPYINR
Support at 57.80 Resistance at 58.35
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
More will update soon!!
Slow monsoon progress delays India soybean sowing - trade body
Soybean sowing in India is likely to get delayed due to the late arrival of monsoon showers in key growing states, trade body Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said on Wednesday.
Central state of Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Maharashtra are top two producers of soybeans in the country, but both the states have not got enough rainfall for the sowing, the trade body said in a statement.
Monsoon showers usually cover most parts of Madhya Pradesh by mid-June. However, monsoon has still not entered the state this year, according to state-run India Meteorological department.
(http://in.reuters.com/article/india-soybeans-sowing-idINKBN19C0TT)
More will update soon!!
