Agro Commodity Update (19-June-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Spices Board India: Review of Export performance of Spices during 2016-17:

Indian spices exports have been able to record strident gains in volume and value. Spices exports have registered substantial growth during the last five years, registering a compound annual average growth rate of 10% in rupee terms and 5% dollar terms of value and India commands a formidable position in the World Spice Trade. During 2016-17, a total of 9, 47,790 tons of spices and spice products valued Rs.17664.61 crore (US$2633.30 Million) has been exported from the country as against 8, 43,255 tons valued Rs.16238.23 crore (US$ 2482.83 Million) in 2015-16 registering an increase of 12% in volume, 9% in rupee terms and 6% in dollar terms of value. As compared to the total export target of spices fixed for the period 2016-17, the total export of Spices has exceeded the target in terms of both volume and value. Compared to the target of 8,70,000 tons valued Rs.15725.12 crore (US$2419.25million) for the financial year 2016-17 the achievement is 109% in terms of volume and 112% in rupee and 109% dollar terms of value.

Soybean futures traded higher as speculators enlarged their positions on expectation that the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for soybean which has been reported up by 275 to 3050 per quintal supported the sentiment of its uptrend. As per the government weekly sowing data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was at 45,000 ha till last week, down 55.4% on year. The prices were under pressure all season on higher arrivals and bumper crop with the farmers. As per trader source, arrivals of soybean during last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes in the previous week.

Turmeric futures traded higher on increasing demand at the spot market. Further, reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas too fuelled the uptrend. This is second successive weekly gain due to rising physical demand coupled with diminishing supplies. However, the trend seems to be little sideways on reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers. Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per the trader source, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. As per the spice board, increased global demand for turmeric, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, drove its exports to attain figures of 1, 16,500 tonnes in volume and crossed Rs 1,241 crore in value terms in 2016-17.

Cardamom futures traded up as investors extended their bets amid surge in physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on restricted physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too fuelled the uptrend.

Technical Aspect: (July Contract)

Soybean

Support is 2760 and resistance is 2880.

Either side decisive break or close will decide further. 

Trade with levels only 

Soyaref 

Soyaref has support at 635 and resistance of 645 

 Looks sideways and either side close will decide further trend in the price.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

As we expected Bull Run from 4800 has started now. It made a high of 5199 today.

What to expect??? 

Support is 4900 and resistance is 5250---5400

We will maintain our bullish view and every decline will be buying opportunity for the upside target of 5250 and then 5400++ mark.

Fresh selling can be seen only below 4900.

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Our buy call from 18600 to 19000 proven great and made a high of 19080 on Friday.

Now what to expect???

Support seen at 18450 and resistance is 19000.

Close above 19000 will take it to 19450 and then 19600+++mark else could test its support level of 18450 again

Fresh selling only can be seen below 18450

Trade with levels only

RM Seed 

Support seen at 3550 and resistance is at 3620

Looks weak and close below 3550 will take it to 3510 and then 3470 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3620.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3620.

Trade with levels only.

Cocudakl

Support 1720 and resistance at 1780

Either side decisive break or close will decide further.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Hurdle at 935 and support at 910---886. 

Looks positive and buy on every decline till 910 will be consider as a buying opportunity. Close above 935 will take it to 951--- 958+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 886 mark

CPO (June)

Trading in a tight range of 486---496

Either side decisive break or close will decide further

Trade in a range with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 19th June 2017

Rupee wipes off early losses; ends stronger on Friday

Recovering from its initial losses, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Friday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive as India's exports grew 8.32 per cent to $24.01 billion in May, mainly on account of robust performance by sectors like petroleum, chemicals, engineering goods as well as gems and jewellery. Some support also came with the report that India has moved up six places from 66th in last year to reach 60th position in this year's Global Innovation Index (GII). However, gains were muted as the current account deficit (CAD) soared to $3.4 billion or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017, from $0.3 billion a year ago. On the global front, US Dollar recorded a two-week high against major global currencies backed by positive economic data.

USDINR (June)

Support at 64.30 and resistance at 64.60

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

GBPINR

Support at 82.30 and Resistance at 82.50

Break and sustain below 82.30 will take it to 82.10—81.95 mark else could touch its resistance level of 82.50 mark

Fresh buying can be initiated above 82.50 mark.

EURINR

Support at 72.00 and resistance 72.40

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

JPYINR

Support at 57.90 and Resistance at 58.35

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 58.35. Close above 58.35 will take it to 58.70—58.90+++ mark else it could touch its support level of 57.90 mark again

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.90 mark.

More will update soon!!

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Commodity News : Agri : Spices export 2016-17

Despite the slowdown in food grains across the world in the year 2016-17, the export of Indian spices has recorded a record high. According to the latest released data of the government, the export of spices and spices products in the year 2016-17 has increased by 12 percent compared to the year 2015-16. The total export of spices in the year 2016-17 is 9,47,790 tons. The total cost of which is estimated to be Rs. 17664.61 crores. In 2015-16, the total export of spices from the country was 8,43,255 tons. In 2016-17, the total export of chilli from the country is 4,00,250 tons. The export of chillies has increased 15 per cent compared to the year 2015-16. On the other hand, the second major masala, which is exported after chilli, is cumin seed. The export of cumin has increased 22 per cent compared to the year 2015-16. The total export of cumin is 1,19,000 tons.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 19th June 2017

Nifty 9,588 /Sensex 31,056 / Bank Nifty 23,502

25 Advances / 26 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian equities marks end a lacklustre session on a flat note

Indian equity markets prolonged the weakness for second straight day finished the session on a dull note, amid lack of global as well as domestic cues. Sentiments remained subdued with the report that the current account deficit soared to $3.4 billion, or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of financial year 2017, from $0.3 billion a year ago. Balance of payments for the full financial year stood at $21.6 billion, while for Q4 the same stood at $7.31 billion. Some concerns also came with report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 645.35 crore on June 15, 2017. However, the downside for the markets was capped with the report that India’s exports grew 8.32 per cent to $24.01 billion in May, mainly on account of robust performance by sectors like petroleum, chemicals, engineering goods as well as gems and jewellery.

Some support also came with the report that government is looking to clear FDI proposals in the 11 sectors, such as defence, insurance and telecom, where approval is still required within eight to 10 weeks of receipt of application to boost the investment climate after the abolition of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB). Meanwhile, sharp correction was witnessed in Healthcare and IT counters, while index heavyweights such as ITC, Tata Motors continued to support the market. Technology stocks declined on worries over outlook at a time when US President Donald Trump is contemplating tougher visa actions in a key market for software services exporters, while Pharma stocks slipped amid worries about their earnings outlook, because of pricing pressures in the United States. In scrip specific development, Ipca Laboratories slipped after the US Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA) refused admission to all drugs made at the company's Pithampur and Silvassa facility.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher on Friday, as oil prices steadied after two day of losses on supply concerns. Investors also heaved a sigh of relief after Greece and European creditors reached a deal on the next stages of Athens' €86bn bailout. Nikkei share average edged higher as the yen dropped, after an expected policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) provided relief to investors. BOJ also left unchanged a loose pledge to keep increasing bond holdings at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($729 billion). However, China's stocks ended lower as weak producer inflation and investment data reinforced concerns of a renewed slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.

Back home, the market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1375 shares on the gaining side against 1271 shares on the losing side, while 172 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 16-June-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5018.68 crore against gross sell of Rs 5628.88 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 610.20 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 701.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 215.83 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 485.43 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9630

Above 9630 will see rally till 9680---9730 mark else it could test it's support level of 9580 again.

Panic will see only close below 9580 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23250 and resistance at 23500

Above 23500 will see further upside rally till 23750---23900.

Fresh downside panic will see only close below 23250 mark.

Trade with levels only

Ex-Dividend Today

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited- Rs 4. per Share 

More will update soon!!

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 16th June 17

Gold futures ended lower on Thursday weighed down by a stronger dollar as investors began to assess the potential for another US rate hike later in the year, supported by data showing a strong US jobs market. Though, some losses were capped with bullion underpinned by myriad global uncertainties, including a report that US President Donald Trump was under investigation.

Crude oil futures traded marginally higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity on surge in physical demand for crude oil at the domestic market. However, an ongoing supply overhang despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production, and rising output from the US, restricted further rise in crude oil prices.

Comex copper futures ended marginally lower on Thursday, while London copper prices too fell after the Federal Reserve lifted US interest rates and took a more hawkish than expected stance on future policy, boosting the dollar and weighing on assets priced in the US currency.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28700 and Resistance 28900

Weekly close below 28700 will take it to 28550—28400 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 28900 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 28900

Silver

Support at 38550 and Resistance at 38900

Weekly close below 38550 will take it to 38200---38050 and then to 37600 mark else could touch its resistance level of 38900 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 38900 mark. 

Crude 

Support at 2850 and Resistance at 2920

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Copper 

Support at 363 and Resistance at 368--372

Close below 363 will take it to 359---356.50 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 363.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 372

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Building Permits:  Previous 1.23M Forecast 1.25M Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Building Permits – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Housing Starts:  Previous 1.17M Forecast 1.23M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Housing Starts – will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07.30 P.M – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment– Previous 97.1 Forecast 97.2 Actual –?? 

Impact – Increase in Industrial Production m/m– will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 16th June 2017

   

                     

Rupee ends weaker against dollar on Fed rate hike

Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against the US dollar on Thursday due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Sentiments remained dampened as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, citing continued US economic growth and job market strength, and announced it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year. Some concern also came with media reports that US President Donald Trump is being investigated by a special counsel for possible obstruction of justice. Moreover, lackluster local equities along with modest capital outflows too weighed on the currency trade. On the global front, dollar inched higher against yen on Thursday, with expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year pointing the way to a trimming of the huge emergency funds pumped into the economy since 2009.

USDINR (June)

Support at 64.60 and resistance at 64.85

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 64.85, Weekly close above 64.85 will take it to 65.00—65.10 mark, else could touch its support level of 64.60.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 64.85

GBPINR

Yesterday we clearly indicated looks positive above 82.40 Just made high of 82.80.

Now what to expect??

Close above 82.80 will take it to 83.00—83.20++ mark else could touch its support level of 82.50 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 82.50 mark.

EURINR

Support at 72.15 and resistance 72.60

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

JPYINR

Support at 58.50 and Resistance at 58.85

Below 58.50 panic remain continue till 58.20—58.00 and then to 57.80 mark else could touch its resistance level of 58.85 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 58.85

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 16th June 2017

Nifty 9,578 /Sensex 31,075 / Bank Nifty 23,391

12 Advances / 38 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Indian equities nosedive on weak global causes

The Penultimate trading day of the week turned out to be a disappointment for the Indian frontline equity indices, as they remained choppy throughout the session and ended near day’s lows. The benchmarks suffered hefty bouts of profit booking especially in Oil & Gas, PSU and IT counters and got dragged below the psychological 8,600 (Nifty) and 31,100 (Sensex) levels.  Sentiments remained weak with the report that the likely increase in farm loan waivers will weigh on PSU banks, NBFCs. The agri stress indicates that Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Haryana may follow up with farm loan waivers, taking the total farm loan waivers to about $28 billion from $10 billion. Besides, soft US economic data, a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve statement and worries of political turmoil in the world's largest economy also weighed on the sentiments.

Adding pessimism among traders, Moody’s Investors Services in its report indicated that Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) move to reduce the amount of money that banks have to set aside (as security) on home loans is negative from the perspective of the ratings of lenders. According to the rating agency, the move is credit negative for Indian banks because lower capital requirements will weaken their protection related to the exposure to the housing sector and encourage greater lending. Some concerns also came with report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 161.13 crore on June 14, 2017. Meanwhile, with less than two weeks to go, the Centre and States are hoping to wrap up discussions on the goods and services tax (GST) this weekend. The GST Council will meet on June 18 to finalize the tax rate on lottery and will discuss the remaining draft rules.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise fed funds to between 1% and 1.25%, and will start ‘gradual’ shrinking of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet ‘this year.’ Lower oil prices took a toll on energy-related shares across the region, while Japan's benchmark slipped as the yen gained against the dollar. Oil prices wallowed near their lowest levels in seven months early on Thursday, hurt by high global inventories and doubts over OPEC’s ability to implement production cuts. Meanwhile, European stocks dropped to their lowest in nearly two months, rattled as investors questioned the Federal Reserve’s outlook for monetary policy as signs of flagging consumer demand have cropped up.

Back home, the market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1375 shares on the gaining side against 1271 shares on the losing side, while 172 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 15-June-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6819.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 6733.70 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 86.11 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1247.69 crore with gross sales of Rs 483.75 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 763.94 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9612.

Above 9612 will see rally till 9650--9680 and then to 9700 mark.

Panic will see only close below 9580 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23275 and resistance at 23400

Above 23400 will see further upside rally till 23520---24600

Fresh downside panic will see only close below 23275 mark.

Trade with levels only

Ex-Dividend Today

Tata Communications Limited Annual General Meeting / Dividend - Rs 4.50 per Share / Special Dividend Rs 1.50 per Share

More will update soon!!

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As updated on our Telegram Channel GOLD crashed vertically!! See what we had written on our Telegram Channel??

In our 11th June 2017 Sunday Special Weekly Comex Levels Update on Telegram 

We have boldly mentioned that GOLD trend is negative and continue to remain the same in coming week. One can sell COMEX GOLD at around $1272 to $1282 for downside target of $1242 and then $1225

(See screenshot)

See with your eyes 😳 yesterday Comex GOLD made high of exact $1282 then started slipping from there. Made fresh low of $1252 ⏬⏬

What else one can want??

No bullshit!! No blah blah !! We work only on Technical Charts 📈📉 

Still have any doubt?? Just wait and watch more and more updates of minting money from us.

Get weekly Comex and MCX Bullion levels only on our "TELEGRAM CHANNEL". 

Join our Commodity Telegram Channel click https://t.me/commoditymarkettips

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