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Thursday, June 15, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 15th June 17




Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday after downbeat US economic data boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates today but refrain from further tightening until year's end. Consumer prices in May were up by 1.9 percent compared to the same month a year ago, a deceleration from the 2.2 percent year-over-year increase seen in April. Retail sales in the US unexpectedly decreased in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The Commerce Department showed that retail sales fell by 0.3 percent in May after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in April.


Crude oil futures snapped their gaining streak and ended at seven month low on Wednesday, after US government data showed a smaller-than-expected weekly decline in domestic supplies and an increase in gasoline stockpiles and crude production. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude supplies fell by 1.7 million barrels for the week ended June 9. Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles edged up by 300,000 barrels last week, according to the EIA. At 242.4 million, U.S. gasoline inventories were 9 percent higher than the five-year average as demand was down 1.2 percent over the last four weeks when compared with a year ago.

Comex copper futures ended lower on Wednesday as investors traded cautiously on an anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate rise later on Wednesday that is expected to strengthen the dollar, making industrial metals more expensive to holders of other currencies.



Technical Level



Gold 




Below 28900….panic remain continue till 28650—28580 and then to 28450 mark.

Hurdle at 29050



Silver





Support at 38600 and Resistance at 39400

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 38600. Break and sustain below 38600 will take it to 38300---38000 mark else could touch its resistance level of 39400 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 39400 mark.



Crude 





Support 2840 and Resistance at 2930

Trend looks weak …. Any sharp rise will be a selling opportunity in it.

Break and sustain below 2840 will take it to 2780—2750 and then to 2690 in days to come

Trade with levels only



Natural Gas





Support at 187.50 and Resistance at 192.50

Close below 187.50 will take it to 182---178 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 192.50 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 192.50




Copper 





Support at 363 and Resistance at 368---372

Close below 363 will take it to 359---356 mark else could touch its resistance level of 368---372 again

Fresh buying can be initiated above 372 mark



Economic Data



04:30 PM – UK Monetary Policy Summary

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 245K Forecast 241K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.




06:00 P.M Empire State Manufacturing Index: Forecast 5.2 Previous -1.0 Actual??

Impact – Increase in Empire State Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.


06:00 P.M Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:  Previous 38.8 Forecast 25.5 Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.


06:45 P.M – Capacity Utilization Rate m/m – Previous 76.7% Forecast 76.8% Actual –??

Impact - Increase in Capacity Utilization Rate – will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.


06:45 P.M – Industrial Production m/m – Previous 1.0% Forecast 0.2% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Industrial Production m/m– will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.




08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 106B, Forecast 88B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.












More will update soon!!

Agro Commodity Update (15-June-2017)





Fundamental Aspect



Guar complex traded moderately higher as improved bargain buying and better export outlook of gum may keep prices to trade higher in near term. However, rapid monsoon progress and favourable weather condition for pre sowing activities in Haryana could restrict the major gains as planting is expected to commence later part of June in Haryana. At the same time, adequate availability of guar stocks at physical market and higher planting prospects for upcoming season could cap major gains. India exported about 54392 MT of guar gum during month of April, 2017 higher by 134% of last year export of 23158 Mt for corresponding time.


Jeera futures showed firmness on the back of rising physical demand. There is good physical and exports demand while the stocks in the Exchange warehouse are diminishing. Jeera arrival in May marked lower this year compared to the last year. As per the trader source, about 10,688 tonnes of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17 (Dept. of commerce, GOI).


Turmeric futures are expected to trade in positive note for the day. Expectations of fresh buying from lower levels may support prices to trade higher. Besides the normal monsoon factor, acreage under turmeric is likely to decline this season as prices are currently prevailing very low at spot markets. Farmers are expected to shift cultivation towards sugarcane and other crops for better price realization. However, higher stocks at the production centres due to higher production in current season and higher carryover stocks may limit the gain. As per the trader source, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. On the export front, country exported about 1.11 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 up by 30% compared to last year exports of 85,412 tonnes.


Coriander futures edged higher as participants enlarged their holdings, tracking a firming trend at spot market due to rising domestic as well as export demand. Besides, limited stocks position on fall in supplies from major producing regions also added support to coriander prices’ uptrend. Supply of coriander in the spot market dropped significantly due to slow farmers selling amid lower rates followed by strike in Madhya Pradesh.


Technical Aspect: (July Contract)



Soybean





Support is 2760 and resistance is 2880.

Looks positive and could test it's resistance level of 2880.  Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 2880 will see sharp upside rally in it.

Support intact at 2760. 

Trade with levels only 


Soyaref 






Soyaref has support at 630 and resistance of 638 

 Break and close above 638 will take 645---651+++ mark else could touch its support level of 630 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 630.

Trade with levels only.


Dhaniya





As we expected Bull Run from 4800 has started now. It made a high of 5140 today.

What to expect??? 

Support is 4900 and resistance is 5180.

We will maintain our bullish view and every decline will be buying opportunity for the upside target of 5320 and then 5470++ mark.

Fresh selling can be seen only below 4900.

Trade with levels only.



Jeera 




We will maintained our bullish view on successfully close above 18600.

Above 18600 will see rally till 19000---19300 and then to 19600 mark in days to come

Fresh selling can be seen below 18200


RM Seed 






Our buy call from 3550 to 3660 proven great....

Now what to expect???

Hurdle and target intact 3660. Weekly close above 3660 will take to 3730—3780+++ mark in days to come

Already booked part profit and revise stop loss at cost to cost.



Turmeric





Support at 5580 and Resistance at 5850

We maintained our bullish view until it is trading above 5580.

Looks positive and close above 5850 will take it to 5980---6050.

Fresh selling can be seen below 5580.

(We have released a special report on “Turmeric” for big move …. And get more than 5% return in just 3 days)



Cocudakl





Our buy call from 1690 proven great and made a high of 1789 yesterday.

Now what to expect??

Support 1730 and resistance at 1800

We maintained our bullish view until it is trading above 1730. 

Close above 1800 will take it to 1870 and then to 1920+++ mark else could touch its support level of 1730.

Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1730.



Mentha oil (June)





Hurdle at 935 and support at 914---886. 

Looks positive and buy on every decline till 914 will be consider as a buying opportunity. Close above 935 will take it to 951--- 958+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 886 mark



CPO (June)





Trading in a tight range of 486---500

Either side decisive break or close will decide further

Trade in a range with levels only.














More will update soon!!

Currency Report 15th June 2017




Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference in Washington, March 15, 2017
.Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25% 

The Federal Reserve approved its second rate hike of 2017 even amid expectations that inflation is running well below the central bank's target. In addition, the Fed provided more detail on how it will unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, or portfolio of bonds that includes Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities and government agency debt. As financial markets had anticipated, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee increased its benchmark target a quarter point. The new range will be 1 percent to 1.25 percent for a rate that currently is 0.91 percent.

The Indian rupee opened marginally higher at 64.27 per dollar on Thursday versus previous close 64.30.Lower than expected India CPI and WPI have triggered market expectations of monetary easing making local bond market bullish. 6.79 GOI 2027 expected to trade in a range of 6.43-6.48 percent today.The dollar nursed losses as weak US inflation data left investors wondering if the Federal Reserve would follow up its latest rate hike with another later this year. Deepening political turmoil in Washington also weighed on the greenback.




USDINR





Support at 64.25 and resistance at 64.60

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.




GBPINR





Hurdle at 82.40, Break and sustain above 82.40 will take it 82.60—82.80++ mark else could touch its support level of 81.90

Fresh selling can be initiated below 81.70




EURINR


Support at 72.15 and resistance 72.60


Looks weak, close below 72.15 will take it to 72.00---71.80 mark else could touch its resistance levels of 72.60 

Fresh buying can be initiated above 72.60




JPYINR





Support at 58.50 and Resistance at 58.85

Break and sustain above 58.85 will take it to 59.00—59.20++ mark else could touch its support level of 58.50

Fresh selling can be initiated below 58.50












More will update soon!!

Technical Pick– Arvind

        



Technical View – Arvind








Arvind is finding support at 370 and resistance at 384 On Daily chart, Arvind triangle breakout showing positive momentum which indicates that upside seems certain in it.
Arvind is likely to touch 78% and 100% projection level which stood at 398 and 406 respectively. Break and sustain above 384 will see nonstop rally in Arvind till 406++ mark in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 406+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 370 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.



Trading Recommendation  



Buy Arvind above 384 for the initial upside target of 398—406++mark with stop loss below 370 on closing basis.















More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 15th June 2017







Nifty 9,618 /Sensex 31,155/ Bank Nifty 23,498

18 Advances / 33 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


Indian benchmarks end higher ahead of Fed outcome due later yesterday

Indian equity markets started the session on a sluggish note but managed to eke out some gains by the end of trade, as the benchmark indices clawed back into the green terrain in the late afternoon trade on getting some supportive leads from the European markets ahead of US Federal Reserve's policy outcome. Besides, sentiments got a boost after the report that Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) slipped to a five-month low of 2.17% in May, as food inflation turned negative and prices of manufactured items rose at their weakest pace in the past five months. Some support also came with reports that the government is working on a new industrial policy with a view to promoting and developing frontier technologies, innovation and enhancing competitiveness of domestic products. However, gains remained capped with a private report stating that  Indian employers expect steady hiring outlook for next three months, but their confidence have dipped to the least optimistic level since 2005 amid uncertainties in global markets. Further, traders remained cautious over the private report indicating that over 65% of the total Rs 9.50 lakh crore of agri debt may potentially get written-off. Maharashtra followed Uttar Pradesh in announcing a debt waiver for the farmers, which is expected to drill Rs 30,000 crore hole for the state exchequer. Meanwhile, India's engineering exports to Doha have been hit following sanctions imposed on Qatar by some nations including Saudi Arabia. Middle East and West Asia are one of the key destinations for Indian engineering exports, accounting for 13% of the country's total engineering exports.
On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday, as investors everywhere awaited clarity on Fed's future path for US policy after a likely rate rise later in the day. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate this week due to a tightening labour market and may also provide more details on its plans to shrink the mammoth bond portfolio it amassed to nurse the economic recovery. Adding the pessimism among traders, Economic data out of China showed retail sales and industrial output topped forecasts in May, but a miss in urban investment reinforced views the world's second-largest economy will soon start to lose some momentum as lending costs rise and the property market cools. Meanwhile, European stocks rose for a second day, led by technology shares.
Back home, many PSU Banks gained traction after the Reserve Bank of India announced steps to speed up NPA resolution process by identifying 12 accounts that can be immediately taken up under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). The gross bad debt of the Indian banking system as of March was at Rs 7.11 lakh crore, which means the 12 accounts would be responsible for about Rs 1.78 lakh crore.



FII’s Activity 14-June-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9326.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 4417.08 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 4909.37 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2818.69 crore with gross sales of Rs 606.61 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 2212.08 crore in debt.



Now what to expect next??






Nifty Levels


Support at 9580 and resistance at 9620.

Above 9620 will see rally till 9650--9680 and then to 9735 mark.

Panic will see only close below 9580 level only



Bank Nifty Levels





Support at 23400 and resistance at 23600

Above 23600 will see further upside rally till 23850---24000

Fresh downside panic will seen only close below 23400 mark.

Trade with levels only



Today's Top Pick


Dena Bank
Dena Bank.... Yesterday we have seen sharp upside move in it because of on going news of Merger with other PSU banks.

Support at 33 and Resistance at 36.

Above 36 will see upside rally till 39---42+++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 33


AGM Today

Syndicate Bank 

Union Bank of India



Ex-Bonus Today

Biocon Limited 2:1


Ex-Dividend Today

Asian Paints Limited AGM/ Dividend Rs 5.65 per Share + Special Dividend Rs 2/- Per Share

Buy Back Today

Kaveri Seed Company Limited 












More will update soon!!