बिजनेस न्यूज़ : 2017 में भारत की वृद्धि दर 7.2% रहेगी : World Bank

विश्व बैंक का अनुमान है कि 2017 में भारत की सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) की वृद्धि दर 7.2 प्रतिशत रहेगी, जो 2016 में 6.8 प्रतिशत रही थी। विश्व बैंक का कहना है कि भारत नोटबंदी के अस्थायी प्रतिकूल प्रभाव से अब उबर रहा है। विश्व बैंक ने अपने जनवरी के अनुमान की तुलना में भारत की वृद्धि दर के आंकड़ों को 0.4 प्रतिशत संशोधित किया है। वहीं भारत दुनिया की सबसे तेजी से बढ़ती अर्थव्यवस्था बना हुआ है।

विश्व बैंक के अधिकारियों के अनुसार चीन की वृद्धि दर के 2017 के अनुमान को 6.5 प्रतिशत पर कायम रखा गया है। वहीं 2018 और 2019 में चीन की वृद्धि दर 6.3 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है। विश्व बैंक ने अपनी ताजा वैश्विक आर्थिक संभावनाओं में 2018 में भारत की वृद्धि दर 7.5 प्रतिशत और 2019 में 7.7 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान लगाया है। जनवरी, 2017 के अनुमान की तुलना में 2018 में भारत की वृद्धि दर के अनुमान में 0.3 प्रतिशत तथा 2019 में 0.1 प्रतिशत की कमी की गई है। विश्व बैंक ने कहा है कि भारत की वृद्धि दर के अनुमान में कमी मुख्य रूप से निजी निवेश में उम्मीद से कुछ नरम सुधार है।

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Agro Commodity Update (05-June-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

India's Kharif sowing acreage up by 10.44%...

Ministry of Agriculture reported, India’s kharif sowing acreage reached 6.916 million hectares as on May 26, which increased 10.44% from 6.262 million hectares during the same period last year. Rice acreage in the country was expected to increase by about 0.11% to 0.175 million hectares, when compared to 0.176 million hectares during last year, while pulses acreage increased to about 0.112 million hectares from 71000 hectares during 2016-17 period. Acreage under Cereals were estimated at 54000 hectares, which is 147% higher than last year's 22000 hectares. Oilseed acreage increased to about 0.127 million hectares, an increase of about three times when compared to 48000 hectares. Cotton acreage in the country increased by 27.21% to 1.124 million hectares when compared to 0.884 million hectares during a year ago period. Sugarcane acreage in the country increased to 4.653 million hectares against 4.387 million hectares, an increase of 6%.

Soybean futures dropped sharply for the 6th consecutive week due to higher supplies and good progress of new season crop. Moreover, lower demand in the spot market and good progress of new season crop capped some gains. Reports showed that India soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs. 20,000 ha year ago. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increase to 1.28 lt as compared with the first half of reading. As per weekly USDA exports report ending May 25, there is net sales of 610,200 MT for 2016-2017 marked up 29% from the previous week and 66% from the prior 4-week average. CFTC indicated that traders added another 26,955 contracts to their net short position in the week ending May 30.

Mentha oil futures traded lower as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity on diminishing demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.

Cardamom futures traded higher as investors extended their bets amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight supplies on restricted arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too added support to cardamom’s uptrend. Good pre monsoon have boosted the expectations of higher crop in the upcoming season which may weigh down the prices in near term.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support is 2630 and resistance is at 2680.

Looks weak and close below 2630 will take it to 2580--- 2550 mark else could touch its resistance level of 2680.

Fresh buying can be seen only above 2680.

Trade with levels only and wait for confirmation 

Soyaref

Support at 613 and resistance of 619---626.

Looks positive and close above 619 will take it to 626 else it could touch its support level of 613. 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 613. 

Trade with levels only and wait for confirmation

Dhaniya 

Support at 4500 and Resistance is 4800

Weekly close below 4500 will take it to 4200—4050 else could touch its resistance level of 4800 again

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Support is 17500 and resistance is at 18050 

Looks positive and close above 18050 will take it to 18400---18700 mark in days to come

Fresh selling can be seen below 17500.

RM Seed 

Support at 3450 and Resistance 3530

Looks weak and close below 3450 will take to 3390---3350 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3530 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3530.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric

Support is 5250 and resistance is at 5400.

Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation

Cocudakl

Our sell call from 1740 to 1660 proven great and made a new low of 1659 today.

What to expect???

Support 1650 and resistance at 1710.

Looks weak and close below 1650 will take it to 1610---1570 mark else could touch its resistance level of 1710 again.

Book part profit and revise stop loss at cost to cost.

Mentha oil (June)

Support at 900 and resistance at 930

Trading in a range and either side breakout will confirm the further trend

Trade with levels only 

CPO (June)

Support at 491 and Resistance at 500

Trading in a range and either side breakout will confirm the further trend

Trade with levels only 

Castor Seed

Support at 4230 and Resistance at 4350.

Close above 4350 will take to 4520---4580 and then 4650 in near term else could touch its support level of 4230.

Fresh selling can be seen below 4230

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 5th June 2017

Rupee rises for the third straight session on Friday

Rising for the third straight day, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Friday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Domestic currency got some support with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya's statement that India will regain the crown of the fastest growing major economy, overtaking China, as early as the first quarter of 2017-18. He said that India, on an annual basis, is ahead of China and will regain the growth momentum soon on the back of host of reforms initiated by the Modi government in the last three years. Besides, dollar's weakness against some other currencies overseas and a firm domestic equity market backed up the rupee. On the global front, dollar hit a one-week high against the yen on Friday after upbeat U.S. private sector job figures, while the closely-watched non-farm payrolls report out later in the global day could provide another boost.

According to the latest report from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s forex reserves decreased by $547.0 million to $378.763 billion during the week ended May 26, 2017. The decrease in valuation of Foreign Currency Assets in the IMF pulled the forex kitty lower during the reporting week.

Valuation of foreign currency assets decreased by $555.0 million in the week and stood at $354.542 billion, while the value of gold in the reserves remained unchanged in the week to $20.438 billion during the week.

USDINR (June)

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.70

Unable to breach its support level and bounced back again, Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of resistance level of 64.70.

GBPINR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.35

Below 83.10 panic remain continue till 82.80—82.65 else could touch its resistance level of 83.35 mark. 

Fresh buying can be initiated above 83.35 mark.

EURINR

Support at 72.50 and Hurdle at 72.50

Break and sustain above 72.80 will see upside rally till 73.00—73.20+++ mark else could touch its support level of 72.50 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 72.50

JPYINR

Support at 58.00 and Resistance at 58.20

Above 58.20 rally remain continue till 58.60—58.95++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.70 mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 58.00

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 5th June 2017

Nifty 9,653/Sensex 31,273 / Bank Nifty 23,375

26 Advances / 23 Declines/ 2 Unchanged

Indian equity indices end at record highs; Nifty breaches 9650 mark

Indian benchmark equity indices staged a wonderful performance on the last day of the week by gaining close to half percent in the session and conquering their psychological levels. The indices ended at record highs on Friday, tracking upbeat trend in global markets, while hopes of good southwest monsoon rains also lifted sentiment. Market participants took some encouragement with the Moody's Investors Service stating that India's key reforms, including the impending goods and services tax and resolution of sticky loans may improve the country's credit profile.  Some support also came with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya's statement that India will regain the crown of the fastest growing major economy, overtaking China, as early as the first quarter of 2017-18. He said that India, on an annual basis, is ahead of China and will regain the growth momentum soon on the back of host of reforms initiated by the Modi government in the last three years.  Besides, the appreciation in rupee value against the dollar added to the optimistic sentiments. Rising for the third straight day, Indian rupee strengthened by 14 paise to 64.34 against the US dollar in early trade on sustained selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. However, broader gains were capped due to caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting next week. The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold on June 7, though it could soften its hawkish tone after data showed easing inflation.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended higher on Friday, as a set of upbeat economic data from the US and Europe helped investors shrug off US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. US factory activity ticked up in May after slowing for two straight months and private employers stepped up hiring, suggesting the economy is regaining speed after struggling at the start of the year. While Chinese stocks ended little changed as investors fretted over tighter liquidity and slowing economic growth, Japan's Nikkei share average broke through the 20,000-point barrier for the first time since December 2015. Meanwhile, all the major European counterparts were trading in the green where major indices like CAC and DAX were trading with a gain of over half a percent at this point of time.

Back home, after getting a firm start, the local benchmarks maintained most of their gains throughout the session and ended the trading day with strong gains. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty got buttressed by over quarter percent to settle above the crucial 9,650 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex accumulated over hundred and thirty points and closed above the psychological 31,200 mark. Further, the broader markets managed a touch better than the larger peers today as the BSE's midcap and smallcap indices settled with gains of 0.72% and 0.50% respectively. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1461 shares on the gaining side against 1224 shares on the losing side, while 165 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 2-June-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4547.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 4998.12 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 450.81 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2316.78 crore with gross sales of Rs 1157.53 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1159.25 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9680.

Above 9650 will see further upside rally till 9680 mark. More and more power will see only close above 9680 else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23200 and resistance at 23400

Above 23400 will see further upside rally till 23600---23750 mark.

More upside rally will see only close above 23750 level else it could test its support level of 23200 again.

Today's Top Pick

Insecticides (india) Limited

Support at  675 and Resistance at 690

Above 690 will see upside rally till 708---715+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 675

Ex-Dividend Today

ITC Rs 4.75 per share

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion and Energy Levels 2nd June 17

Gold futures declined on MCX, with stock markets climbing and the dollar firming after upbeat US private sector job figures appeared to boost the prospects for an interest rate hike this month. Investors will be looking for further clues on the timing of rate rises in US non-farm payroll data due later in the day.

Crude oil futures traded lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the energy commodity amid worries that US President Trump's decision to quit global climate agreement could spark more crude drilling in the US, and will strongly hit OPEC’s efforts to drain a global crude supply overhang.

Copper futures traded down on MCX as investors exited their positions in the industrial metal on concerns over weakening demand and oversupply. Besides, investors shifted their focus towards equities from hard commodities tracking robust US and European industrial data too fuelled the downtrend.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28800 and Resistance at 29000---29150

Weekly close below 28800 will take it to 28550---28400 and then to 28150 mark else could touch its resistance level of 29000---29150 mark

Fresh buying can be initiated above 29150.

Silver

Support at 39300 and resistance at 40200.

Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation

Crude 

Weekly close below 3025 will see more downside panic till 2950---2920 and then to 2800 mark

Hurdle at 3130 mark.

Natural Gas 

Support at 193 and Resistance at 198

Weekly close below 193 will take to 188---185 and then to 182.50 mark else could touch its resistance level of 198 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 198.

More will update soon!!

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