Agro Commodity Update 02-June-2017

Fundamental Aspect

India's Kharif sowing acreage up by 10.44%...

Ministry of Agriculture reported, India’s kharif sowing acreage reached 6.916 million hectares as on May 26, which increased 10.44% from 6.262 million hectares during the same period last year. Rice acreage in the country was expected to increase by about 0.11% to 0.175 million hectares, when compared to 0.176 million hectares during last year, while pulses acreage increased to about 0.112 million hectares from 71000 hectares during 2016-17 period. Acreage under Cereals were estimated at 54000 hectares, which is 147% higher than last year's 22000 hectares. Oilseed acreage increased to about 0.127 million hectares, an increase of about three times when compared to 48000 hectares. Cotton acreage in the country increased by 27.21% to 1.124 million hectares when compared to 0.884 million hectares during a year ago period. Sugarcane acreage in the country increased to 4.653 million hectares against 4.387 million hectares, an increase of 6%.

Soybean futures edged up as speculators created fresh positions at prevailing levels amid a firm trend in the overseas market. However, lower demand in the spot market and good progress of new season crop capped some gains. Reports showed that India soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs. 20,000 ha year ago. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increase to 1.28 lt as compared with the first half of reading. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. IGC also raised its soybean crop forecast for 2016-17 by 5 MT to a record of 350 MT due to better yields in South America. China's soybean importers cancel cargoes mainly ordered from suppliers in Brazil as they incur losses in crushing.

Coriander futures is expected to trade further lower as prices are continuously slumping in the major markets of Rajasthan and Gujarat due to lack of demand. Coriander seed production this season 2016-17 dropped to 90 lakh bags (40kg each) against 100 lakh bags a year ago, but its huge carryover stocks have created pressure on the counter.

Cardamom futures traded higher as investors extended their bets amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight supplies on restricted arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too added support to cardamom’s uptrend. Good pre monsoon have boosted the expectations of higher crop in the upcoming season which may weigh down the prices in near term.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support is 2650 and resistance is at 2750

Trade with levels only and wait for confirmation 

Soyaref

Our buy call from 619 proven great and touched a fresh high of 623.55 yesterday.

Now what to expect???

Support is 613 and resistance is 625

Trade with levels only and wait for confirmation

Dhaniya 

Support at 4600 and Resistance is 4900

Weekly close below 4600 will take it to 4350—4200 else could touch its resistance level of 4900 again

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Support is 17500 and resistance is at 18050. 

Looks weak and close below 17500 will take it to 17250---17100 and then to 16800 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 18050 again.

Fresh buying can be seen above 18050.

RM Seed 

  

Support at 3450 and Resistance 3530

Looks positive and close above 3530 will take to 3580---3650 mark else could touch its support level of 3450 again

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric

Support is 5250 and resistance is at 5400.

Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation

Cocudakl

Support 1740 and resistance at 1825.

Looks weak and close below 1740 will take it to 1700---1660 mark else could touch its resistance level of 1825 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1825 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Support at 915 and resistance at 945

Trading in a range and either side breakout will confirm the further trend

Trade with levels only 

CPO (June)

Support at 492 and Resistance at 500

Close below 492 will take to 488---485 and then to 476 mark else it could test it's resistance level of 500 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 500

Castor Seed

Support at 4180 and Resistance at 4320---4380

Trade in a range with  levels and wait for confirmation

More will update soon!!

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Update on Basemetals Levels for the day 02 June 2017

Copper 

Support at 365 and resistance is 370

Weekly close below 365 will take it to 356—352 and then 345 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 370.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 370 mark.

Nickel 

Support at 565 and resistance 590

Weekly close below 565 will see more downside panic till 540---525 mark else could test its resistance level of 590

Fresh buying can be initiated above 590.

Trade with levels only.

Lead 

Support at 135 and Resistance at 137.20

Trend looks weak and weekly close below 135 will take it to 132—130 mark in days to come

Fresh buying can be initiated above 137.20

Zinc

Not able to breach 168.50 and slipped again. 

Below 165 panic remain continue till 162---159 mark. 

Weekly close below 159.00 will see sharp downside fall in it. 

Hurdle intact at 168.50

Aluminium

Support at 123.50 and resistance is 125.50

Weekly close below 123.50 will take it to 122---120.50 mark else could touch its resistance level of 125.50 again.

Trade with levels only. Anything seems will update.

More will be update soon!!

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Technical Pick - Kolte Patil

Technical View – Kolte Patil

Kolte patil is finding support at 177 and resistance at 182. Break and sustain above 182 will see nonstop rally in Kolte patil till 190-195 and then 199++ in days to come.

Chart- Kolte Patil

For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 177 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation - Buy Kolte Patil above 182 on closing basis for the initial upside target of 190—195 and then to 199++ mark with stop loss below 177 on closing basis.

Mote will update soon!!

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Currency Report 2nd June 2017

Rupee ends marginally higher against dollar

Continuing its rising streak for the second straight day, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Thursday, due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive with the report that Fiscal deficit in fiscal 2017 was 3.5% of GDP, in line with the budget projection, reflecting the government's commitment to the process of fiscal consolidation. In fiscal 2016, the deficit was 3.9% of GDP. Besides, dollar’s weakness against some currencies overseas too supported the rupee. However, gains were muted with India losing the tag of the world’s fastest growing major economy to China with a gross domestic product growth of 6.1% in the three months through March from a year earlier, also slowing from a provisional 7% in the previous quarter. Growth for the year ending in March came in at 7.1%, in line with the official estimate. On the global front, sterling retreated against dollar on fears that Prime Minister Theresa May could lose control of parliament in Britain's June 8 election.

USDINR (June)

Support at 64.40 and Resistance at 64.75

If unable to breach its support level of 64.40 then it can touch its resistance level of 64.75 again. Close above 64.75 will see upside rally till 64.90—65.10 mark.

Fresh selling only below 64.40

GBP-INR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.35

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.

EURINR

Support at 72.30 and Hurdle at 72.85

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.

JPYINR

Support at 57.70 and Resistance at 58.20

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 57.70, Weekly close below 57.70 will take it to 57.40—57.20 mark else could touch its resistance level of 58.20 mark.

Fresh buying only above 58.20 mark.

More will be update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 2nd June 2017

Nifty 9,616/Sensex 31,137 / Bank Nifty 23,310

24 Advances / 27 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian markets end lower on poor macroeconomic data

Indian equity market commenced the new month on a sluggish note, as the benchmarks showcased an unenthusiastic performance on Thursday and settled with moderate cuts as investors remained cautious after India's economic growth unexpectedly slumped to its lowest in more than two years in the March quarter, stripping the country of its status as the world's fastest growing major economy. The country’s GDP or gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.1% in the fiscal fourth quarter from 7% in the third, while Gross value added (GVA), the difference between gross domestic product (GDP) and net indirect taxes, grew by only 5.6 per cent in Q4 - the lowest in at least eight quarters. Besides, a sharp fall in the output of coal, natural gas and crude oil pulled down growth in the group of eight core sectors to a three-month low in April, also weighed on investors’ morale. The core sector expanded 2.5 per cent in the first month of the new fiscal year, compared with 5.3% in March and 8.7% a year earlier.

Further, market participants also remained jittery after the report that manufacturing sector growth in the country moderated to a three-month low in May amid softer rise in new orders and production. The Nikkei Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) -- an indicator of manufacturing activity -- declined from 52.5 in April to a three-month low of 51.6 in May. However, losses remained capped with the report that Fiscal deficit in fiscal 2017 was 3.5% of GDP, in line with the budget projection, reflecting the government's commitment to the process of fiscal consolidation. In fiscal 2016, the deficit was 3.9% of GDP. Furthermore, the government's decision to unveil the budget early seems to have paid off with spending having picked pace in the first month of the financial year itself. The government spent 11.3% of the budgeted expenditure in April, with capital expenditure topping the overall spending. Meanwhile, sugar stocks gained traction after the report that India's 2017/18 sugar production will likely jump a quarter from the previous year to 25 million tons as decent monsoon rains are forecast. India's monsoon, which is forecast to deliver normal rainfall in 2017, lashed the country's southwest coast on Tuesday, two days ahead of usual.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday, as investors keenly awaited Friday's US non-farm payrolls numbers as a positive report could pave the way for a rate hike in mid-June. Chinese market started the month on a bearish note, after a private survey showed that the country's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in May for the first time in 11 months & companies shed more jobs as demand weakened and shrinking factory prices dented profits. The index fell to 49.6, weaker than expected, below the 50-point mark, which demarcates growth and contraction, and marked the third month in which the index has fallen. However, Japan's Nikkei gained after data showing recurring first-quarter corporate profits were the highest on record for the January to March period. Meanwhile, European markets edged higher in early trade, after solid regional manufacturing data underscored the region's ongoing recovery and a weaker pound boosted share prices in the United Kingdom. The pace of expansion in Europe's manufacturing sector continues to hold at six year highs, with employment in the sector running at the highest ever for the 20-year survey.  Many investors in Europe also focused on a speech from German central bank President Jens Weidmann, who said late Wednesday that the European Central Bank should start discussing when to reduce its monetary stimulus.

Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks traded in tight range near neutral line, altering between positive and negative, throughout the session and ended the trading day with moderate losses. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with trivial losses of five points above the psychological 9,600 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index - Sensex shed eight points and closed above the psychological 31,100 mark. However, broader markets managed to outperform the larger peers today as the BSE’s midcap and small cap indices settled with strong gains. The market breadth remained in favor of advances, as there were 1412 shares on the gaining side against 1267 shares on the losing side, while 179 shares remain unchanged.

  

FII’s Activity 1-June-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3421.99 crore against gross selling of Rs 3593.76 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 171.77 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1857.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 691.66 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1165.60 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9615.

Above 9615 will see further upside rally till 9650---9680 mark else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23225---23181 and resistance at 23395

Above 23395 will see further upside rally till 23480---23613 mark.

More upside rally will see only close above 23613 level else it could test its support level of 23225---23181 again.

Today's Top Pick

Cox & Kings

Support at 220 and Resistance at 230

Looks positive on charts. Above 230 rally remain continue till 240---245+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 220

Ex-Dividend Today

Indian Bank Rs 6 per share

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 1st June 17

Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday as investors reacted to the weaker US Dollar. Besides, uncertainty over the direction of US interest rates also supported the precious metal. Furthermore, political tensions in the US and Europe also continued to support gold.

Crude oil futures traded higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity after report that showed US crude stockpiles had fallen more than expected and on hopes that the US could pull out of a global climate accord. US President Trump said that he would announce later on Thursday a decision on whether to keep the US in a global pact to fight climate change, as a source close to the matter said he was preparing to pull out of the Paris pact.

Copper futures traded marginally lower on MCX as participants indulged in trimming positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas after a survey showing factory activity contracted in the world's second-largest economy China in May for the first time in almost a year. Besides, muted spot demand from consuming industries too fuelled the downtrend...

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28850 and Resistance at 29150

Trading in a range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation.

Silver

Below 39400.... panic remain continue till 39150---39000 mark else could touch its resistance level of 39900---40200 again

Fresh buying only above 40200 mark.

Crude 

Support at 3070---3025 and Resistance at 3180

Soon we will release report on Crude oil. This report is free for every one.

Copper 

Support at 362 and Resistance at 370

Break and sustain below 365 will take it to 362 and then to 358—355 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 370 again.

Trade with levels only

Economic Data

05:45 P.M ADP Non-Farm Employment Change:  Previous 177K Forecast 181K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – will have negative impact on  bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 234K Forecast 239K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

07:30 P.M ISM Manufacturing PMI:  Previous 54.7 Forecast 54.8 Actual –??

Impact – Increase in ISM Manufacturing PMI – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 75B, Forecast 78B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.

08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -4.4M, Forecast -2.7M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa

More will update soon!!

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