Agro Commodity Update (01-June-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

India's Kharif sowing acreage up by 10.44%...

Ministry of Agriculture reported, India’s kharif sowing acreage reached 6.916 million hectares as on May 26, which increased 10.44% from 6.262 million hectares during the same period last year. Rice acreage in the country was expected to increase by about 0.11% to 0.175 million hectares, when compared to 0.176 million hectares during last year, while pulses acreage increased to about 0.112 million hectares from 71000 hectares during 2016-17 period. Acreage under Cereals were estimated at 54000 hectares, which is 147% higher than last year's 22000 hectares. Oilseed acreage increased to about 0.127 million hectares, an increase of about three times when compared to 48000 hectares. Cotton acreage in the country increased by 27.21% to 1.124 million hectares when compared to 0.884 million hectares during a year ago period. Sugarcane acreage in the country increased to 4.653 million hectares against 4.387 million hectares, an increase of 6%.

Soybean futures traded little higher after traded at lowest level since March’12 due to bargain buying marked at lower level. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reported to 23,000 ha so far against the 20,000 ha marked a year ago. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increase to 1.28 lt as compared with the first half of reading. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. IGC also raised its soybean crop forecast for 2016-17 by 5 MT to a record of 350 MT due to better yields in South America. China's soybean importers cancel cargoes mainly ordered from suppliers in Brazil as they incur losses in crushing.

Jeera futures traded higher supported by increased buying by retailers and stockists at the spot market. Moreover, firming trend in futures market and lower stocks following restricted supplies in the domestic market also added the gain in price. As per the trader source, about 10,688 tonnes of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of MY 2016-17.The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse is dropping to 1044 tonnes on May 30, fall from 1443 tonnes a week ago. However, on 1st May the stock was about 964 tonnes. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,897 tonnes.

Crude palm oil futures traded up as traders created fresh positions, supported by pickup in demand at the spot market. Moreover, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing belts too fuelled the uptrend.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Our buy call from 2705 proven great and touched a high of 2739 today.

What to expect???

Support is 2660 and resistance is at 2780

Looks positive and could test 2780 mark. Weekly close above 2780 will see rally to remain continue till 2850---2880 else could touch its support level of 2660 again.

Fresh selling can be seen below 2660.

Trade with levels only. 

Soyaref

Our buy call from 619 proven great and touched a fresh high of 623.55 today.

Now what to expect???

Support is 615 and resistance is 626.

Looks positive and close above 626 will fuel more power towards 630---637 else could test its support level of 615. 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 615.

Trade with levels only.

Guarseed

Support at 3300 and Resistance at 3430

We expect a “U” turn from  here onwards. We will accumulate buy position until its traded above 3300.Close above 3430 will take it to 3500---3560 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3300 mark again

Fresh selling can be seen below 3300 mark.

Dhaniya 

Our sell call from 4900 proven great and touched a fresh low of 4635 today.

What to expect???

Support at 4550 and Resistance is 4900

Close below 4550 will take it to 4400—4300 else could touch its resistance level of 4900 again

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Support is 17500 and resistance is at 18050. 

Looks positive and close above 18050 will take it to 18450---18900 and then to 19200 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17500 again.

Fresh selling can be seen below 17500.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Support at 3450 and Resistance 3525

Looks positive and close above 3525 will take to 3580---3650 mark else could touch its support level of 3450 again

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric

Support is 5230 and resistance is at 5480.

Trend looks weak and close below 5230 will take it to 5050---4900 mark in days to come else could test its resistance level of 5480 again.

Trade with levels only. 

Cocudakl

Support 1750 and resistance at 1825.

Looks weak and close below 1750 will take it to 1700---1660 mark else could touch its resistance level of 1825 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1825 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Support at 915 and resistance at 945

Looks positive and close above 945 will take it to 960---980 mark else could touch its support level of 915.

Trade with levels only 

CPO (June)

Our buy call from 496 proven great and touched a high of 499.8 today.

Now what to expect??? 

Support at 492 and Resistance at 502

Looks positive. We can accumulate buy position in panic for the upside level of 502---507 mark in near term.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 492.

Castor Seed

Support at 4180 and Resistance at 4320

Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation. Anything seems will update

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 1st June 2017

Rupee strengthens against the US dollar on Wednesday

Indian rupee strengthened against US dollar on Wednesday, due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters. Sentiments got boost with the Moody's Investors Service’s report stating that Indian economy will grow by 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal year, 7.7 per cent in 2018-19 and will reach to around 8 per cent in 3-4 years on the back of government's various reforms.  Some support also came with report that Southwest monsoon arriving in Kerala on the expected date this year and also advancing into some parts of the Northeast India. Besides, a weak dollar against some other currencies overseas too supported the uptrend. However, investors maintained cautious approach ahead of the fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, slated to be announced later today. On the global front, Sterling dropped against dollar, after a projection by polling company YouGov showed Britain's ruling Conservative party falling short of an overall majority in the June 8 national election.

USDINR (June)

Below 64.70 panic remain continue till 64.40—64.25 and then to 64.10 mark.

Hurdle intact at 65.00

Fresh buying can be initiated above 65.00 mark.

GBP-INR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.35

If unable to breach its resistance level of 83.35 then it can touch its support level of 83.10 again, below 83.10 will take it to 82.95—82.75 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 83.35 mark. 

EURINR

Support at 72.30 and Hurdle at 72.70

Above 72.70 rally remain continue till 73.00—73.10 mark else could touch its support level 72.30 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 72.30 mark.

JPYINR

Support at 58.25 and Resistance at 58.60

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 1st June 2017

Nifty 9,621/Sensex 31,145 / Bank Nifty 23,424

22 Advances / 29 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

 Indian benchmarks end a dull session with modest cut; broader markets outclass blue-chips 

It turned out to be a lackadaisical performance from Indian benchmark indices on Wednesday, as they failed to snap the session in the green territory and settled marginally below the neutral lines. The frontline gauges took a breather, after closing at record highs for the previous sessions, as investors waited for gross domestic product (GDP) data due later in the day and searched for fresh corporate triggers with the results season coming to an end. According to India’s former chief statistician Pronab Sen, the country’s GDP for 2016-17 will get 50 basis points (bps) push to 7.6 percent from the government’s estimate of 7.1 percent, due to the recent revision of the base year of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

Further, investors around the world also turned cautious after a powerful bomb exploded in the morning rush hour in the center of Kabul on Wednesday, killing at least 80 people, wounding hundreds and sending clouds of black smoke into the sky above the presidential palace and foreign embassies. However, losses remained capped with the Moody's Investors Service’s report stating that Indian economy will grow by 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal year, 7.7 per cent in 2018-19 and will reach to around 8 per cent in 3-4 years on the back of government's various reforms. Some support also came with report that Southwest monsoon arriving in Kerala on the expected date this year and also advancing into some parts of the Northeast India. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi while speaking at the Indo-German Business Summit in Berlin said that India has one of the most liberal FDI policy regimes in the world and more than 90 percent of foreign investment flows are under automatic route. Meanwhile, Aviation stocks gained traction on expectations that a slide in oil prices would reduce carriers' fuel cost, which typically constitute about 50% of airlines' operating costs.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Wednesday, as investors turned cautious amid political worries in Europe as well as weaker commodity markets. Japanese stocks dropped after weakness in US shares and a stronger yen hurt sentiments, while sliding oil prices dragged down the mining sector. However, investors got some confidence after China reported official manufacturing PMI for May at 51.2, compared with a level of 51.0 seen, and steady with 51.2 in April. The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, up from a level last at 54.0 in April. A figure above 50 denotes expansion. In commodities, oil prices remained soft, as concerns lingered about whether the extension of output cuts by OPEC and other producing countries will be enough to support prices.

Back home, the benchmark got off to a cautious start, tracking the dismal leads prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the indices kept oscillating in a narrow range through the day’s trade. Eventually, the NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with trivial losses of three points above the psychological 9,600 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index - Sensex shed thirteen points and closed above the psychological 31,100 mark. Moreover, broader market outperformed the frontline indices with the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Small cap indices rising up to 1%. The market breadth remained in favor of advances, as there were 1380 shares on the gaining side against 1289 shares on the losing side, while 182 shares remain unchanged.

FII’s Activity 31-May-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3421.99 crore against gross selling of Rs 3593.76 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 171.77 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1857.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 691.66 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1165.60 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next ??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9650.

Above 9650 will see further upside rally till 9687---9707 mark else it could test its support level of 9680 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23160 and resistance at 23465

Above 23465 will see further upside rally till 23557---23613 mark.

 More upside rally will see only close above 23613 level else it could test its support level of 23336---23160 again.

Today's Top Pick

Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals

Support at 128 and Resistance at 132

Above 132 will see upside rally till 135---138+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 128

Ex-Dividend Today

Infosys Rs 14.75 per share

Page Industries Limited Rs 26 per share

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 31st May 17

Gold futures edged lower on MCX as speculators remained on the side-lines in the precious metal as safe-haven demand faded amid lack of cues as most of the Asian equity markets are closed today. However, closeness of Britain's upcoming elections, prospect of early elections in Italy and worries over Greek debt capped some losses in gold futures.

Crude oil futures traded lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the energy commodity amid lingering worries over rising output from Libya and US that is undermining OPEC-led cuts aimed at tightening supply. Reports showed that Libya's oil production is expected to rise to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) this week.

Comex copper futures ended marginally lower on Tuesday, while London copper prices too fell in quiet trade as the market waited for top metals consumer China to return from a public holiday and data on Wednesday that is expected to show a slowdown in Chinese industrial growth. However, weaker dollar capped some losses in copper prices.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28850 and Resistance at 29150

Trading in a range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation.

Silver

Support at 39800 and Resistance at 40100

Break and sustain above 40100 will take it to 40250---40400 and then to 40700 mark else it could touch its support level of 39800 again

Fresh selling can be initiated below 39800 mark.

Crude 

Below 3180... Target intact 3120---3080 mark

Hurdle and revise stop loss at cost to cost.

Copper 

Support at 362 and Resistance at 370

Break and sustain below 362 will take it to 358—355 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 370 again.

Trade with levels only




















More will update soon!!

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : गेहूं: उत्तर प्रदेश में खरीद 28 लाख टन, मध्य प्रदेश में 67 लाख टन

देश में इस साल गेहूं के रिकॉर्ड उत्पादन के बाद सरकारी एजेंसियों की तरफ से खरीद भी रिकॉर्ड स्तर तक पहुंच गई है, फूड कार्पोरेशन ऑफ इंडिया यानि FCI की तरफ से दी गई जानकारी के मुकाबिक 31 मई तक देशभर में सरकारी एजेंसियों की कुल खरीद 297.71 लाख टन दर्ज की गई है जो अबतक की सबसे अधिक खरीद है और पिछले साल के मुकाबले करीब 68 लाख टन अधिक है।

सरकारी एजेंसियों ने 31 मई तक उत्तर प्रदेश से 28 लाख टन, मध्य प्रदेश से 67.24 लाख टन, हरियाणा से 74.11 लाख टन और पंजाब से 116.88 लाख टन गेहूं खरीदा है।

केंद्र सरकार ने इस साल पूरे देश से 330 लाख टन गेहूं खरीद का लक्ष्य निर्धारित किया हुआ है लेकिन खाद्य मंत्रालय के सूत्र मान रहे हैं कि गेहूं खरीद लक्ष्य से करीब 30 लाख टन पीछे रह सकती, यानि कुल 300 लाख टन की खरीद होने की उम्मीद ही है।

एजेंसियों ने पंजाब, हरियाणा अब मध्य प्रदेश से गेहूं खरीदना बंद कर दिया है, थोड़ी बहुत खरीद उत्तर प्रदेश और राजस्थान में हो रही है। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : कपास: हरियाणा में बुआई 27% आगे, 94 % बुआई लक्ष्य पूरा

उत्तर भारत में अहम कपास उत्पादक राज्य हरियाणा में इस साल कपास की खेती में जोरदार इजाफा देखने को मिल रहा है, मार्केट टाइम्स को मिले हरियाणा कृषि विभाग की तरफ से जारी बुआई आंकड़ों के मुताबिक राज्य में इस साल कपास की बुआई के लिए जो लक्ष्य तय किया हुआ है वह 30 मई तक करीब 94 फीसदी पूरा हो चुका है और पिछले साल के मुकाबले बुआई करीब 27 फीसदी आगे चल रही है।

आंकड़ों के मुताबिक 30 मई तक राज्य में 5.95 लाख हेक्टेयर में कपास की खेती दर्ज की गई है जबकि कृषि विभाग ने इस साल 6.35 लाख हेक्टेयर में बुआई का लक्ष्य निर्धारित किया हुआ है। पिछले साल इस दौरान राज्य में सिर्फ 4.67 लाख हेक्टेयर में कपास की खेती हो पायी थी और सामान्य तौर पर करीब 5.98 लाख हेक्टेयर में खेती होती है। यानि राज्य में सामान्य तौर पर कपास की जितनी खेती होती है वह पूरी हो चुकी है और बुआई के लिए अब भी करीब 15 दिन का समय है। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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