Agro Commodity Update (31-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

India's Kharif sowing acreage up by 10.44%...

Ministry of Agriculture reported, India’s kharif sowing acreage reached 6.916 million hectares as on May 26, which increased 10.44% from 6.262 million hectares during the same period last year. Rice acreage in the country was expected to increase by about 0.11% to 0.175 million hectares, when compared to 0.176 million hectares during last year, while pulses acreage increased to about 0.112 million hectares from 71000 hectares during 2016-17 period. Acreage under Cereals were estimated at 54000 hectares, which is 147% higher than last year's 22000 hectares. Oilseed acreage increased to about 0.127 million hectares, an increase of about three times when compared to 48000 hectares. Cotton acreage in the country increased by 27.21% to 1.124 million hectares when compared to 0.884 million hectares during a year ago period. Sugarcane acreage in the country increased to 4.653 million hectares against 4.387 million hectares, an increase of 6%.

Soybean Jun futures continued with its downtrend for the third consecutive session and fell to its lowest level since March’12 on the back of higher supplies and good progress of new season crop noticed in the market. Reports showing that arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increased to 1.28 lt as compared to the first half. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reported to 23,000 ha so far against the 20,000 ha marked a year ago. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increase to 1.28 lt as compared with the first half of reading. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. 

India may export 1.5 MT of soymeal during the MY 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) lower from 2 MT expected in the beginning of the season. China’s crushing margins for soybeans fell to the weakest since Sep 2014 last week as soymeal stocks rose to their highest since mid-2012 amid sluggish end user demand, pulling down prices for the livestock feed. As per the IGC report, soybean crop forecast for 2016-17 rises by 5 MT to a record of 350 MT due to better yields in South America. 

Jeera futures traded higher supported by increased buying by retailers and stockists at the spot market. Moreover, firming trend in futures market and lower stocks following restricted supplies in the domestic market also added the gain in price. As per the trader source, about 8661 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-25) compared to 29,322 in April (1-25). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of MY 2016-17 .The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse is reducing to 1,395 tonnes on May 24, fall from 2,092 tonnes a week ago. However, on 1st May the stock was close to 964 tonnes. Last year, stocks were higher at 4,101 tonnes.

Mentha oil futures showed mixed trend on sluggish demand from the major consuming industries in the domestic spot market, while June contract gained on tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soyabean

Support is 2660 and resistance is at 2705

Below 2660… Panic likely to remain continue till 2620---2580 else could touch its resistance of 2730---2780 again.

Fresh buying can be seen above 2705 for the upside level of 2750 and then 2780+++

Trade with levels only. 

Soyaref

Not able to breach 641 and crashed vertically. Told to sell below 635 mark and made a low of 614.05 yesterday.

Now what to expect???

Support is 613 and resistance is 619.

We expect a sharp rebound in price here and close above 619 will fuel more power towards 626---630 else could test its support level of 613. 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 613.

Trade with levels only.

Guarseed

Our sell call from 3470 to 3350 proven great and touched a fresh low of 3348 today.

Now what to expect???

Support at 3300 and Resistance at 3430

We will maintain our bearish view. Close below 3300 will take it to 3230---3180 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3430 mark again

Further upside rally will see above 3430 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

Panic continue in Dhaniya from 7800 and likely to stay ahead…

What to expect???

Support at 4700 and Resistance is 5000

Close below 4700 will take it to 4550—4400 else could touch its resistance level of 5000 again

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Support is 17300 and resistance is at 17800. 

Looks week and close below 17300 will take it to 16800---16450 and then to 16000 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 17800 again.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Broken decisively its support of 3500 yesterday and touched a low of 3466 today.

Now support at 3450 and Resistance 3525

Looks weak and daily close below 3450 will take to 3400---3360 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3525 again

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric

Support is 5230 and resistance is at 5480.

Trend looks weak and close below 5230 will take it to 5050---4900 mark in days to come else could test its resistance level of 5480 again.

Trade with levels only. 

Cocudakl

Panic continue from 1965 and likely to stay ahead.

Support 1750 and resistance at 1825.

Looks weak and close below 1750 will take it to 1700---1660 mark else could touch its resistance level of 1825 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1825 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Our buy call from 916 to 945 proven great…

Now what to expect???

Support at 890 and resistance at 945---960

Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation

CPO (June)

Our sell call from 522 to 511.60 proven great (May series).

Now what to expect??? 

Support at 492 and Resistance at 496

Looks positive and close above 496 will take it to 502---507 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 492 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 492.

Castor Seed

Support at 4180 and Resistance at 4320

Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation. Anything seems will update 

           More will update soon!!                

Read More

Forex Update 31st May 2017

India’s GDP to grow at 7.5% in FY18: Moody’s….

Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service today projected India’s economy to accelerate to grow at 7.5% in 2017-18 and 7.7% in 2018-19 as the government has been able to limit the negative impact of last year’s demonetisation on the economy. He expect marginally faster growth in India. Overall, they continue to believe that economic growth will gradually accelerate to around 8% over the next three to four years. The rating agency said the government has been successful in pushing through several key reforms including liberalization of foreign direct investment rules in a number of key sectors, including defence, railway infrastructure, civil aviation and insurance; the direct benefit transfer (DBT) scheme for food; fertilizer and kerosene subsidies; the goods and service tax, which is expected to come into effect in July; and a national bankruptcy code. “Together these will help reduce inefficiencies and improve trend growth over the long run.

(Impact: Positive for INR)

Source: Mint

More will update soon!!

Read More

Forex Update

Sterling drops on poll showing risk of hung UK parliament…

The British pound dropped today after a new poll found that British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party risks falling short of an overall majority in the June 8 national election. New constituency-by-constituency modeling by YouGov showed the Conservative Party might lose 20 of the 330 seats it holds while the opposition Labour Party could gain nearly 30 seats. The news came after a string of opinion polls show a narrowing lead for May's Conservatives, shaking the confidence among investors that she would easily win a majority in the election. “The narrowing in the polls has clearly dented sterling's performance and continues to weigh on the currency, and is probably likely to do so in the near term.

Source: investing

More will update soon!!

Read More

Technical Pick : Havells

Technical View – Havells

Havells is finding support at 470 and resistance at 488. On Daily chart, Havells MACD & RSI both showing positive momentum which indicates that upside side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 488 will see nonstop rally in Havells till 495---505 and then 520++ in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 520+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 470 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation - Buy Havells above 488 for the initial upside target of 495—505 and then to 520++ mark with stop loss below 470 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

Read More

Currency Report 31st May 2017

Rupee ends weaker on month end dollar demand

Indian rupee ended substantially weaker against dollar on Tuesday, on increased month-end demand for the American currency from importers and banks. Sentiments remained down-beat with private report indicating that demonetisation effect is expected to slow down India’s GDP growth to 7.2% in January-March quarter from 7.6% in the preceding quarter. Though, it expects a recovery thereafter to an average of 7.5% in the second half of 2017 and 7.7% in 2018, supported by a release of pent-up consumption demand with remonetisation, easier financial conditions, pay hikes for government employees and modest external demand. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the release of the gross domestic product (GDP) data on May 31. Besides, US dollar’s gain against other currencies overseas too dragged the rupee down. On the global front, yen strengthened against major counterparts on Tuesday, as investors fret about a Greek bailout and the possibility of an early election in Italy.

USDINR

Support at 64.70 and Resistance at 65.00

Close below 64.70 will take it to 64.40—64.25 mark else could touch its resistance level of 65.00 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 65.00 mark.

GBPINR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.35

Break and sustain below 83.10 will take it to 82.95—82.80 and then to 82.50 mark else could touch its resistance level of 83.35 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 83.35 mark.

EURINR

Support at 72.30 and Hurdle at 72.70

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 72.30. Break and sustain below 72.30 will take it to 72.00—71.80 mark in days to come.

Trade with levels only

JPYINR

Support at 58.25 and Resistance at 58.60

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 58.60. Close above 58.60 will take it to 58.75—58.90 and then to 59.10 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 58.25.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 58.25

More will update soon!!

Read More

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 31st May 2017

Nifty 9,624/Sensex 31,109 / Bank Nifty 23,307

34 Advances / 17 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks settle with marginal gains but outclass global peers

Indian benchmark indices managed to extend the winning momentum for the fourth consecutive day and settled at fresh closing highs on Tuesday, as arrival of monsoon rains cheers, but the gains were capped as the investors booked profit in recent outperformers. The monsoon, which delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall, arrived at the southern Kerala coast today, in line with forecasts, brightening the outlook for higher farm output and robust economic growth. Simultaneously, the onset is also likely over Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, some parts of Tamil Nadu and most parts of northeastern states in the next 24 hours.  Despite settling with only two tens of a percent gains, the frontline indices managed to outclass all the peers in Asia and Europe by quite a margin. The global markets continued to exhibit somber trends as investors at large remained cautious on worries about a Greek bailout and the possibility of an early election in Italy.

Sentiments got some support with World Bank's expectation that India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, will grow at 7.2% in the current fiscal and further up to 7.7% by 2019-20 on strong fundamentals, reform momentum and improving investment scenario. It noted that demonetization in November 2016 caused a slight disruption to India's growth recovery, following a favorable monsoon last fiscal, but things seem to be bettering. However, weak trend in global markets, continued foreign fund outflows and muted earnings posted by some blue-chip companies, have limited the gains. Meanwhile, India's capital market regulator has proposed to tighten rules on offshore derivative instruments (ODI) by imposing 'regulatory fees' and prohibiting the sales of such products unless they are issued for hedging purposes.

On the global front, concerns about a Greek bailout, early Italian elections and comments by the European Central Bank chief about the need for continued stimulus, sapped risk appetite, weighing on Asian markets and lifting safe havens including the yen and gold, though trading was thin with several markets closed for holidays. Sentiments remained downbeat on the report that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised the test of a new ballistic missile controlled by a precision guidance system and ordered the development of more powerful strategic weapons. Japan's Nikkei ended flat, held back by a stronger yen whereas South Korea's KOSPI edged lower as investors took profits following the market's record-breaking rally this month. Markets are awaiting economic indicators including French first quarter gross domestic product, German inflation data for May, and US inflation for April later in the session. Meanwhile, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are closed for holidays on Tuesday.

Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks traded in tight range near neutral lines, altering between positive and negative territory, for most part of the session and ended the trading day once again at record highs. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, convalesced by close to quarter percent to settle above the crucial 9,600 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex accumulated over fifty points and closed above the psychological 31,150 mark.  Moreover, broader markets managed to outperform the larger peers as the BSE's midcap and small cap indices settled with around half a percent.  The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1229 shares on the gaining side against 1450 shares on the losing side, while 157 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 30-May-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3952.28 crore against gross selling of Rs 4759.88 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 807.60 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 612.80 crore with gross sales of Rs 320.42 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 292.38 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9640.

Above 9640 will see further upside rally till 9661---9686 and then to 9721 mark else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23198---23093 and resistance at 23317

Above 23317 will see further upside rally till 23361---23417 mark. More upside rally will see only close above 23465 level else it could test its support level of 23198---23093 again.

Today's Top Pick

Ashok Leyland

Support at 90 and Resistance at 95

Above 95 will see upside rally till 100---105+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 90

Result Today

Castrol India Limited

More will update soon!!

Read More

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 30th May 17

Gold futures edged lower on MCX as speculators remained on the side-lines in the precious metal as safe-haven demand faded amid lack of cues as most of the Asian equity markets are closed today. However, closeness of Britain's upcoming elections, prospect of early elections in Italy and worries over Greek debt capped some losses in gold futures.

Crude oil futures showed further upmove on Monday in a holiday thinned trade. The market though remained cautious as increases in U.S. drilling activity have undercut an OPEC-led push to tighten supply. Traders are uncertain about whether the extension of output cuts by OPEC and other producing countries will be enough to support prices.

Copper futures traded down on MCX as participants indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals at the domestic spot markets due to subdued demand.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28800 and Resistance at 29000

Break and sustain below 28800 will take it to 28600---28500 mark else could touch its resistance level of 29000 again. 

Fresh buying can initiated on close above 29000

Silver

Support at 40100 and Resistance at 40500

Close below 40100 will take it to 39800---39450 mark else could touch its resistance level of 40500 again.

Fresh buying can initiated above 40500 mark.

Crude 

Support at 3180 and Resistance at 3270

Break and sustain below 3180 will take it to 3150—3120 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3270 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3270 mark.

Copper

Support at 363 and Resistance at 370

Break and sustain below 363 will take it to 359—356 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 370 again.

Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity with stop loss above 375 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

Read More